0z GFS-Mouth of the Mississippi and then New Orleans

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Brent
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0z GFS-Mouth of the Mississippi and then New Orleans

#1 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:27 pm

Image

:shocked!:

That is NOT good at all...
Last edited by Brent on Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:28 pm

all I know is that their FTP site for the raw grib data needs improvement!
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#3 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:28 pm

Camille like? :roll:
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#4 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:31 pm

If that would be the track and just a little west, that' worst case scenario for New Orleans.
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#5 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:34 pm

OVER NEW ORLEANS MONDAY MORNING!!! :eek:

Image

That is the nightmare.
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#6 Postby TSmith274 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:35 pm

SOB. That would be damn near the worst case scenario. But, I can take solace in the fact that most models that far off are not accurate.
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#7 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:37 pm

That looks terrible. The only good thing about this is that since it's so early, it's most likely to change.
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#8 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:38 pm

Trust me..if it is saying New Orleans now, when it gets here, it won't be here. It would be a first for any model...I'll worry about Dennis when he is in the GOM.
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#9 Postby ktulu909 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:39 pm

The GFS predicted New Orleans snow over 3 weeks out. :( :( :(
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#10 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:42 pm

ktulu909 wrote:The GFS predicted New Orleans snow over 3 weeks out. :( :( :(


...and predicted Ivan to hit Mobile about 10 days out(I remember everyone laughing at it).

It was only 20 miles off...
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#11 Postby jkt21787 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:42 pm

GFS has been doing pretty good lately with these systems.

However don't take ANY model 120+ hours out, even 60 hours out, as a forecast. Its just a guess really.

Still I would hope all of you NOLA area residents are preparing for the worst, but of course hoping for the best.
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#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:46 pm

I wouldn't discount that solution
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#13 Postby JTD » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:46 pm

I wonder if we are about to see "A Day After Tommorow" scenario :eek: :eek: ie., one of the worst hurricane scenarios imaginable.
Last edited by JTD on Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:47 pm

Cindy could be a warning to get out!!! But who knows.
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#15 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:56 pm

The GFS is at least the 2nd model that makes New Orleans ground zero. The EURO has it in the exact same spot, with a lot of the others aiming in that same general area. It's still a long way out, thank goodness.
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#16 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 05, 2005 11:58 pm

That solution is being picked up by the models, and it would be a horrible fate for NO
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#17 Postby ALhurricane » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:05 am

00z UKMET has FL panhandle landfall

00z Canadian has a Mobile, AL landfall

so for right now...the modeling varies from a New Orleans landfall to a FL panhandle landfall. not much of a real estate difference for 120+ hours in the models.
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