Underestimating the Ridge

[Timedrifter]

I don't understand why there are Tropical Storm watches for Miami-Dade County. The Tropical Storm watches for Collier and Mainland Monroe counties is understandible, and I actually think they should include Lee county as well..but for Miami-Dade...I don't know why. There are what, over a million people in Miami-Dade, and about 850,000 in Lee/Collier counties, why scare the million on the east coast and be conservative and wait until later to see if one is needed for Miami-Dade....

The population of Miami-Dade is about 2.4 million.

[Canelaw99]

I don't understand why there are Tropical Storm watches for Miami-Dade County. The Tropical Storm watches for Collier and Mainland Monroe counties is understandible, and I actually think they should include Lee county as well..but for Miami-Dade...I don't know why. There are what, over a million people in Miami-Dade, and about 850,000 in Lee/Collier counties, why scare the million on the east coast and be conservative and wait until later to see if one is needed for Miami-Dade....

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

This actually is a tricky thing with us here in M-D. I, for one, live in extreme southern Miami-Dade and almost go with what's going on in the upper Keys more so than in Miami LOL. It's tough for the EOC here to know the right thing. If they wait and Dennis is looking like it's going to hit the Keys, it may be too late for the residents to do what they need to do. However, if they put the watch up and nothing happens, then people here become complacent and don't pay attention. I don't envy their position at all.

What you need to remember is that there ARE a ton of people here in the county and the watch, I think, is necessary to get them to sit up and take notice because if Dennis moves along the eastern edge of the cone, the direct hit would be in the Keys, giving Miami-Dade TS winds at the very least, and potentially hurricane winds for us here in the southern portion. People have to be prepared, and after last year, I think all would rather err on the side of caution.

[jdray]

The only two models that have not flopped have been the CMC and the NOGAPS.

CMC is a penisula runner
NOGAPS is a Pensacola hit.

Both models are horrible in tropical systems (NOGAPS not as bad though)

Have you noticed the models initializing the system at about 1000 mb lately? How do you expect a track like that to be accurate?

If its FL its the panhandle.

Also the UKMET has not flopped at all with a NOLA hit. Why didn't you mention that one?

Last 3 runs, 12Z 7/7, 00Z 7/7 and 12Z 7/6 do show a NOLA hit.
previous runs were a panhandle hit.

CMC and NOGAPS have been more than 6 runs in a row.

again, they initialize poorly. You simply can't trust a model that does that.

At this point I am certainly not ruling out a Panhandle Hit but Peninsula hit is stretching it.

Im not stating that they are correct, just stating that they have barely budged on Dennis at all while the others have flip flopped.

[dwg71]

If Dennis passes over the pennisula sticking out on Cuba's southern coast, you better believe a South Florida landfall is a possibility. Not saying its going to happen, but ridge looks to be pretty weak.

[rtd2]

If Dennis passes over the pennisula sticking out on Cuba's southern coast, you better believe a South Florida landfall is a possibility. Not saying its going to happen, but ridge looks to be pretty weak.

I'm headed to lunch with Brent But I had to respond to this ...Take a Look at http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

and look at the STRONG east to west flow...I DONT see the system Busting through that...

[dwg71]

you mean the SE to NW flow...yeah i see it.. not protecting South Fl in my opinion.

[loon]

If Dennis passes over the pennisula sticking out on Cuba's southern coast, you better believe a South Florida landfall is a possibility. Not saying its going to happen, but ridge looks to be pretty weak.

I'm headed to lunch with Brent But I had to respond to this ...Take a Look at http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

and look at the STRONG east to west flow...I DONT see the system Busting through that...

This is EXACTLY what I was looking for earlier, this kind of mapping. Thanks for the link rtd2.

[loon]

you mean the SE to NW flow...yeah i see it.. not protecting South Fl in my opinion.

No, I think he meant the East to west flow currently between (and building out into the GOM) Dennis and the SE to NW flow that you are talking about. Surely you can see it?

[rtd2]

If Dennis passes over the pennisula sticking out on Cuba's southern coast, you better believe a South Florida landfall is a possibility. Not saying its going to happen, but ridge looks to be pretty weak.

I'm headed to lunch with Brent But I had to respond to this ...Take a Look at http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

and look at the STRONG east to west flow...I DONT see the system Busting through that...

This is EXACTLY what I was looking for earlier, this kind of mapping. Thanks for the link rtd2.

Glad to Help!

[caneman]

Hmm, lets see at 2:00 Advisory it is now moving at 15 mph up from 11 mph and expected to stay on this course for next 24 hours. Think I'll go with NHC on this one.

[Rainband]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0507071818

Bye bye ridge

[Lindaloo]

What does that mean buddy?

[loon]

But it still looks to be reforming....strange...welp, they know better than I. Sorry to hear that for Florida.

[jkt21787]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0507071818

Bye bye ridge

Thats interesting, all indications as seen by myself and others in different threads seem to suggest otherwise...

[dwg71]

What does that mean buddy?

It means high pressure ridge will be retreating NE, and allow Dennis to maintain his NW track and eventually turn NNW then to N.

[Rainband]

What does that mean buddy?

Read the link. They said that the ridge is moving ne away so dennis will move nw and then nnw and could even shift closer to the florida coast!

[caneman]

Doesn't look good for us in Florida, especially now that speed has picked up too.

[Rainband]

Doesn't look good for us in Florida, especially now that speed has picked up too.

where are you caneman

[N2Storms]

I could be wrong but I think that the reason these watches have for S. Fla is not so much because of a direct hit threat, but rather due to the fact that the wind field is expanding and if Dennis stays on it's current projected path the Southern tip of Fla. both the East coast and West coast would be subjected to TS conditions for a period of time. If you look at the NHC graphics you'll notice that the entire West Gulf Coast could experience TS conditions as Dennis makes it way northward, providing it stays on it's projected course. Just my 2 Cents worth (and it probably isn't even worth that)...

[caneman]

Doesn't look good for us in Florida, especially now that speed has picked up too.

where are you caneman

Indian Rocks Beach. Brother and Girlfriend live up your way in NEw Port Richey. Seen ya on here for awhile. Could get a little too close for us.