models west

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Ivanhater
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models west

#1 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:57 pm

hmm, i just looked un wunderground, and it shows the models back over around mobile bay, whats that about?
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ridge

#2 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:58 pm

ridge over fla has changed orientation
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#3 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:59 pm

so the models have been moving back west?
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:00 pm

Wait for the 00:00z model guidance very soon that I will post.
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#5 Postby TS Zack » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:00 pm

Yes they are... New GFS way over and all the Hurricane Models will come over with it.

Cycloneye, ready to see the 00z guidance at 8PM.
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#6 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:02 pm

Those are old runs. They show the times in the upper right hand corner.

The 12z ECMWF (fwiw, their site is back up) shows a MS/AL line looking hit (my gun to the head call from earlier).

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Re: models west

#7 Postby Baggio » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:03 pm

ivanhater wrote:hmm, i just looked un wunderground, and it shows the models back over around mobile bay, whats that about?


FYI, the wunderground models are as of 8 AM and 2 PM today, and are possibly outdated.
Last edited by Baggio on Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8 Postby jabber » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:03 pm

Old runs...
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Re: models west

#9 Postby jabber » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:04 pm

Baggio wrote:
ivanhater wrote:hmm, i just looked un wunderground, and it shows the models back over around mobile bay, whats that about?


FYI, the wunderground models are as of 8 AM and 2 PM today, and are possibly outdated.


Welcome.....
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#10 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:04 pm

The entire track depends on the strength/weakness of the high pressure system across the GOM region.

Until now what's been steering Dennis has been the Bermuda high. He is around the periphery of this high.
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#11 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:06 pm

Remember most of the tropicals will follow the GFS. Watch the for the ones following the 0z GFS, not these yet.
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Re: models west

#12 Postby Baggio » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:11 pm

jabber wrote:
Welcome.....


Thank you. I actually registered last year, but my account was deactivated for some reason.
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#13 Postby Guest » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:15 pm

jabber wrote:Old runs...


been monitoring these runs all day theses are new, look where they initialize.
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#14 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:21 pm

i was about to say, becasue i dont remember them being that far west at those times
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#15 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:22 pm

yeah...they werent that far west at 2pm...
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#16 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:24 pm

ivanhater wrote:i was about to say, becasue i dont remember them being that far west at those times

I agree,these don't look the same.

Old runs or not...I would not be suprised at a shift west becuase they've been shifting left and right every night.
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#17 Postby Steve H. » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:29 pm

NO! The 0Z GFS doesn't come out 'til about 11:30/12:00am :roll:
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#18 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:30 pm

Those are old runs, but they showed further east than that on this afternoon. Somebody must have crossed them up with last night's tracks.
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#19 Postby mahicks » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:34 pm

Models West??? I don't Think So.......................


I'm looking at the current NHC model Plots and Yes, the GFDL is now more west (perdido key maby?) but the rest of the plots, (w/ the exception of the UKmet Outlier of course) are actually further east than this afternoons models. FWIW, the models are not as much in agreement as before though.


Anyone Else's thoughts on this?
Last edited by mahicks on Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#20 Postby Guest » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:36 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:Those are old runs, but they showed further east than that on this afternoon. Somebody must have crossed them up with last night's tracks.


how could they be old, look at where they initialize the storm.
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