00z GFS is trickling in.. North.. West.. North Off Coast..

[gatorcane]

this also has inner core dropsondes. Once there is recon, the GFS has become a joke the last couple of years. This is why I really do not use the model for making a forecast. Gravity wave galore are generated

I would have to say that I agree with it this run...it is taking account the ridge's southern periphery at 26 degrees. Assuming that holds for the next 48 hours it makes sense.

[jkt21787]

Up to 54, seems Mobile to Panama City still, almost at landfall time.

[LilNoles2005]

Looks closer to Panama City this time...

eek.

We'll just have to watch.

[dhweather]

Up to 54, seems Mobile to Panama City still, almost at landfall time.

Yep, but its becoming more and more obvious, the ridge, the reinforcement ridge, and timing will determine the specifics.

It's going to be an uneasy weekend from NOLA to Appalachacola

[Steve]

If anyone is interested and doesn't have the link yet, here's the full link to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Model Output Data as it streams in:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

This was my personal site for a long time but once dh jumped my butt for telling him the 18z was running (Arlene) and he said "WHAT?!?!?!" I had to spill the beans .

Steve

[jkt21787]

Pensacola-Panama City by 66 hours...

[ericinmia]

GFS says nah not SE FL...let's go to the Panhandle..expanding west ridge explain the apparent WNW track around Key West?

Not expanding... That is just where the ridge is.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm4.GIF
-Eric

Now i want to see if the canadian 00z changes...
and
See the GFDL...

[dhweather]

Which is about dead on with the NHC path.

[jkt21787]

Expect little change with tropical models later tonight given the GFS solution

[LilNoles2005]

Expect little change with tropical models later tonight given the GFS solution

I agree.

[gkrangers]

Looks like the GFS cranks Key West.

A very northward motion tonight, then it goes way west around the lower Keys, then proceeds northwest towards the Panama City area.

[clfenwi]

Already bogus run, if you notice it has the high pressure backed way off florida, so we know it starts out with poor initialization.

Comparing the intitialization

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

with the actual 00Z observations,

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_00.pdf (unanalyzed)

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.html (analyzed)

it looks accurate to me. You can quibble about the 588 line, but that's about all.

At the surface, it may be lacking a 1016 high in the Gulf... I don't have my hands on an unanalyzed plot at the moment, so I don't know if that's valid or if it's a phantom being drawn by the computers in their analysis (update: looking at the buoy data it looks like a phantom; GFS is correct to not have it)

To the point: I don't see anything glaringly wrong with the initizalization...

[LAwxrgal]

Looks like Mobile to Panama City is bullseye

[gkrangers]

Well I'm too tired to get too indepth and start staring at individual frames and comparing them to obs...but if the GFS has the ridge initiated too weak, or too far east, then that would account for the norhtward movement the GFS predicts early on.

[skysummit]

No one wants it here, but I pray it doesn't hit the Gulf Shores/Pensacola area. I pass there once a month and people still have blue tarps on their roofs here and there.

[clfenwi]

If there were a problem in the initizalization, it would be noted in the model diagnostic discussion (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html), which is updated after the run is completed.

Again, looking at the actual 500 mb obs, it is clear that the center of anticyclonic circulation was off the coast of Florida, not on top of Florida, so I don't see a problem there.

[baitism]

Keep in mind a more northerly trek through Cuba likely means a much weaker storm coming offshore, low end cat 2 if not lower. Serious Mountains in that area.

Unless it manages to squeeze through the one section in central Cuba that is relatively low.

http://www.posolstvo-cuba.ru/cuba/cuba- ... ef-big.jpg

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Um the only part of Cuba that would weaken Dennis that much is eastern Cuba.....which it is already past. Charley passed over Havana and pretty much held its strength. Central and Western Cuba is not a significant strength decreaser.