Message from Cuba that my co-worker's friend sent him:

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zimmerm
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Message from Cuba that my co-worker's friend sent him:

#1 Postby zimmerm » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:44 pm

1st message:

Hello. Hurricane Dennis made a final adjustment in its track and is now headed directly to Havana City. According to the local forecast, the eye of the storm will be crossing Guanabo, which is about 6 Km East of our house in Tarara. Even if it moves to either side, we'll still be in the 50-mile zone of hurricane-strength winds. We have another 4 or 5 hours before we won't be able to get out of the house without being blown away, so I'll try to do some work in the meantime... :-) Dennis is a category 4 hurricane and is forecast to strengthen a bit more before making landfall this afternoon. Sustained winds are at 150 mph (240 km/h).

Also, the hurricane pummeled all of Cubas South Eastern and South Central coast, including Jardines de la Reina and Júcaro. I expect to have some dramatic reports next week as soon as crews are able to get to the area. Also, the current track will blast much of the oil infrastructure on Matanzas' Northern shore - all the wells are in the middle of the eye, as is this area's second-largest power plant. Needless to say, the government is publicly very nervous considering the bad shape of most of Old Havana's houses and buildings.

2nd message:

Thanks for your input - I guess that's experience talking. While we're still able to get the NHC data via the web, we don't get updated local information because even now there's the classical Cuban censorship in place. Keep sending updates - as long as the phones work, we'll be able to download. And now we also have one of Raquel's friends here with us - she's pregnant and about 3 days from her scheduled delivery date; our resources here are better than the ones she has at her own home :-) Let's just hope she doesn't start giving birth in the middle of the storm; now that would be something...

I'll still try to get some pictures.
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JTD
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#2 Postby JTD » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:53 pm

Wow!! This is the most fascinating post I have ever read on storm2k.

I hope the colleague's friend stays safe!
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Sanibel
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#3 Postby Sanibel » Fri Jul 08, 2005 2:59 pm

I take it back, he's smoothed left again and will come close to Havana, barring any jog right. His jog cycles are longer than that, so Havana should expect a close pass.

(Sign of holding ridge)
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Normandy
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#4 Postby Normandy » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:04 pm

Also means hell have more time over land, which means itll weaken more.
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#5 Postby VortMax » Fri Jul 08, 2005 3:40 pm

Great post! Keep us updated as it is VERY difficult to get info from Cuba.
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#6 Postby soonertwister » Fri Jul 08, 2005 5:39 pm

After better than 6 hours of tracking to the right of the projected path, Dennis made a second landfall in Cuba, started to weaken some, and immediately veered back toward the projected path.

Maybe a wobble, or maybe there's another reason, one I'm considering. As a strong category 4 storm Dennis made a stronger pushing influence against the ridge, and imposed itself more on the prevailing ridge feature. By weaking once on land, the force the hurricane imposed weakened, causing the hurricane to get pushed back toward the projected track.

I suggest that because it wasn't until the hurricane rapidly strengthened that it made the sudden direction change to the right. It weakened, and a sudden direction change back to the left, now headed near Havana again.

I think it's an interesting theory. Any professional mets care to inject their wisdom? It won't hurt my feelings if I get shot down...
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