Dennis scenarios

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drezee
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Dennis scenarios

#1 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:09 pm

Current position:

REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 84.4 W.

Scenario #1: Dennis moves due NW (315)
Landfall: Pass Christian, MS (30.5N, 89.4W)

Scenario #2: Dennis moves NW halfway and NNW halfway
Landfall: Mobile, AL (30.5N, 88.1W)

Scenario #3: Dennis Turns due NNW now
Landfall: Pensacola, FL (30.5N, 86.9W)
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Stormcenter
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Re: Dennis scenarios

#2 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:11 pm

drezee wrote:Current position:

REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 84.4 W.

Scenario #1: Dennis moves due NW (315)
Landfall: Pass Christian, MS (30.5N, 89.4W)

Scenario #2: Dennis moves NW halfway and NNW halfway
Landfall: Mobile, AL (30.5N, 88.1W)

Scenario #3: Dennis Turns due NNW now
Landfall: Pensacola, FL (30.5N, 86.9W)


Good post.
Thank you!
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Re: Dennis scenarios

#3 Postby Ixolib » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:13 pm

drezee wrote:Current position:

REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 84.4 W.

Scenario #1: Dennis moves due NW (315)
Landfall: Pass Christian, MS (30.5N, 89.4W)

Scenario #2: Dennis moves NW halfway and NNW halfway
Landfall: Mobile, AL (30.5N, 88.1W)

Scenario #3: Dennis Turns due NNW now
Landfall: Pensacola, FL (30.5N, 86.9W)


Now, that's food for thought. So simple, though, I wonder why the "officials" don't use this type of example to educate their viewers and listeners. Kinda puts things into perspective. Thanks...
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#4 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:14 pm

The "continued track" path looked more like the mouth of the Pearl River to me, either way, that's too close!
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#5 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:14 pm

im liking scenario 2 at this point in time. He wont keep on a steady NNW course imo, i think hell wobble Nw and NNW.
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#6 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:18 pm

looking at the current infrared... I think Dennis has turned NNW in the last 3 frames or so... probably a wobble though so I'm thinking senario 2 as well
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#7 Postby Ixolib » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:18 pm

Normandy wrote:im liking scenario 2 at this point in time. He wont keep on a steady NNW course imo, i think hell wobble Nw and NNW.


So, you're thinking Mobile?
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#8 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:20 pm

yup just west of mobile (like less than 40 miles west).
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#9 Postby drezee » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:36 pm

Unless there is a drastic change the landfall looks to be between Biloxi and Navarre Beach.
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#10 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:39 pm

On his current heading he seems to pointed right at mobile.
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Re: Dennis scenarios

#11 Postby rtd2 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:40 pm

drezee wrote:Current position:

REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 84.4 W.

Scenario #1: Dennis moves due NW (315)
Landfall: Pass Christian, MS (30.5N, 89.4W)

Scenario #2: Dennis moves NW halfway and NNW halfway
Landfall: Mobile, AL (30.5N, 88.1W)

Scenario #3: Dennis Turns due NNW now
Landfall: Pensacola, FL (30.5N, 86.9W)



Sorry this is too SIMPLE to Understand... :D
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#12 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:43 pm

I'm thinking just west of Mobile but east of Pascagoula.
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#13 Postby rtd2 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:53 pm

Brent wrote:I'm thinking just west of Mobile but east of Pascagoula.


:eek:
That would = Franklin Creek Ms to That "B" city south of Grand Bay Al....Thats Nailin it Down Pretty tight Brent!
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#14 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:20 pm

I've been leaning toward a Horseshoe Bend Arkansas scenario but I realize these storms do recurve eventually.
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#15 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:22 pm

Didn't see this post before, but I've made a little bit more detailed analysis here. :)
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#16 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:23 pm

first one....1
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#17 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:29 pm

rtd2 wrote:
Brent wrote:I'm thinking just west of Mobile but east of Pascagoula.


:eek:
That would = Franklin Creek Ms to That "B" city south of Grand Bay Al....Thats Nailin it Down Pretty tight Brent!


If this motion keeps up... your going to be in the eye, maybe even eyewall(hopefully western if that happens).
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#18 Postby rtd2 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:32 pm

mtm4319 wrote:Didn't see this post before, but I've made a little bit more detailed analysis here. :)



do they AGREE?
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#19 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:35 pm

rtd2 wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:Didn't see this post before, but I've made a little bit more detailed analysis here. :)



do they AGREE?


Pretty much. Right now a 317 (NW) heading would take it to Biloxi, and a 331 (NNW) heading would place it at Pensacola beach.
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#20 Postby rtd2 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:37 pm

mtm4319 wrote:
rtd2 wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:Didn't see this post before, but I've made a little bit more detailed analysis here. :)



do they AGREE?


Pretty much. Right now a 317 (NW) heading would take it to Biloxi, and a 331 (NNW) heading would place it at Pensacola beach.



ONE more ? whats the current heading?
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