Florida AFD Summary on Emily

[jlauderdal]

Miami:
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF NOW TROPICAL STORM EMILY...NOW
APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...2300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT CONCERNING WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACT EMILY WILL HAVE ON SOUTH
FLORIDA. BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP IN
MIND IT MAY FIZZLE ENTIRELY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. IT'S TOO SOON TO TELL.
FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE LATEST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM EMILY.

Tampa:
ALSO...SPECIAL ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY MODIFY THE FORECAST IF ITS TRACK FINALLY
BRINGS IT CLOSER TO FLORIDA DURING THE WEEKEND.
WITHOUT ANY MAJOR
EVENT EXPECTED...ASSUMING THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WON'T BECOME A
THREAT TO FLORIDA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY NEAR OR REACH NORMAL
VALUES.

Melbourne:
THE PROGRESS OF EMILY BE WATCHED AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE
NEAR EASTERN CUBA BY THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THE CONSENSUS OF CURRENT
XTD MODEL TGUIDANCE SHOWS THE DLM RIDGE REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
(WHATEVER SHAPE THE SYSTEM MAY BE IN BY THAT TIME) IT IS STILL QUITE
A WAYS OUT INTO THE FUTURE...SO THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINITY
BEYOND DAY 5.

Jacksonville:
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TS EMILY
AS IT TRACKS WNW ALONG PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

Key West:
TROPICAL STORM EMILY...CURRENTLY OUT IN THE
CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND MOVING WESTWARD...MAY BE WITHIN A FEW
HUNDRED MILES OF THE KEYS BY THIS TIME PER NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
TRACK FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS HUGE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY THIS FAR INTO THE
FUTURE. FOR NOW...WE WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO 12-HOUR RAIN CHANCES
OF 40 PERCENT WITH ABOVE-CLIMO WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15KT.