.Emily Advisorys
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...EMILY HEADED TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT
315 MILES... 505 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 390
MILES... 630 KM...EAST OF TRINIDAD.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...EMILY HEADED TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT
315 MILES... 505 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 390
MILES... 630 KM...EAST OF TRINIDAD.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
NNNN
0 likes
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number 10
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on July 13, 2005
...Outer bands of Emily beginning to spread over the Windward
Islands...
At 5 am AST...0900z...the government of Barbados has downgraded the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of Venezuela has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the northern coast of
Venezuela from Pedernales westward to cumana...including Isla
Margarita.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Tobago...Grenada...
The Grenadines... St. Vincent...and St. Lucia.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for
Trinidad.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Martinique.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within 24
hours. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are possible within 36
hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located
near latitude 11.1 north... longitude 56.3 west or about 260
miles... 420 km... southeast of Barbados and about 345 miles... 550
km...east of Trinidad.
Emily is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next
24 hours. On this track the center will be near the Windward
Islands later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Emily has the potential to become a hurricane before it
reaches the Windward Islands. An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Emily this morning.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles
...140 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6
inches across the Windward Islands and portions of the north coastal
area of Venezuela...with possible isolated amounts of 12 inches
over mountainous terrain. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide
levels can be expected near and to the north of the path of the
center.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...11.1 N... 56.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
AST.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on July 13, 2005
...Outer bands of Emily beginning to spread over the Windward
Islands...
At 5 am AST...0900z...the government of Barbados has downgraded the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of Venezuela has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the northern coast of
Venezuela from Pedernales westward to cumana...including Isla
Margarita.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Tobago...Grenada...
The Grenadines... St. Vincent...and St. Lucia.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for
Trinidad.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Martinique.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within 24
hours. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are possible within 36
hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located
near latitude 11.1 north... longitude 56.3 west or about 260
miles... 420 km... southeast of Barbados and about 345 miles... 550
km...east of Trinidad.
Emily is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next
24 hours. On this track the center will be near the Windward
Islands later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Emily has the potential to become a hurricane before it
reaches the Windward Islands. An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Emily this morning.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles
...140 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6
inches across the Windward Islands and portions of the north coastal
area of Venezuela...with possible isolated amounts of 12 inches
over mountainous terrain. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide
levels can be expected near and to the north of the path of the
center.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...11.1 N... 56.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
AST.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Tropical Storm Emily Forecast/Advisory Number 10
Statement as of 09:00Z on July 13, 2005
at 5 am AST...0900z...the government of Barbados has downgraded the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of Venezuela has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the northern coast of
Venezuela from Pedernales westward to cumana...including Isla
Margarita.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Tobago...Grenada...
The Grenadines... St. Vincent...and St. Lucia.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for
Trinidad.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Martinique.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within 24
hours. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are possible within 36
hours.
Tropical storm center located near 11.1n 56.3w at 13/0900z
position accurate within 40 nm
present movement toward the west or 270 degrees at 17 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 997 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt....... 20ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt....... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
12 ft seas..125ne 60se 60sw 100nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 11.1n 56.3w at 13/0900z
at 13/0600z center was located near 11.1n 55.4w
forecast valid 13/1800z 11.6n 58.6w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 20se 20sw 30nw.
34 kt... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
Forecast valid 14/0600z 12.4n 61.7w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 15se 15sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
Forecast valid 14/1800z 13.3n 64.8w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 15se 15sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
Forecast valid 15/0600z 14.3n 67.9w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 45se 45sw 60nw.
34 kt... 90ne 75se 75sw 90nw.
Forecast valid 16/0600z 16.0n 74.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 45se 45sw 60nw.
34 kt...100ne 75se 75sw 100nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 17/0600z 18.0n 80.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
Outlook valid 18/0600z 19.5n 86.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 11.1n 56.3w
next advisory at 13/1500z
forecaster Pasch
$$
Statement as of 09:00Z on July 13, 2005
at 5 am AST...0900z...the government of Barbados has downgraded the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of Venezuela has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the northern coast of
Venezuela from Pedernales westward to cumana...including Isla
Margarita.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Tobago...Grenada...
The Grenadines... St. Vincent...and St. Lucia.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for
Trinidad.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Martinique.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within 24
hours. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are possible within 36
hours.
Tropical storm center located near 11.1n 56.3w at 13/0900z
position accurate within 40 nm
present movement toward the west or 270 degrees at 17 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 997 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt....... 20ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt....... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
12 ft seas..125ne 60se 60sw 100nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 11.1n 56.3w at 13/0900z
at 13/0600z center was located near 11.1n 55.4w
forecast valid 13/1800z 11.6n 58.6w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 20se 20sw 30nw.
34 kt... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
Forecast valid 14/0600z 12.4n 61.7w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 15se 15sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
Forecast valid 14/1800z 13.3n 64.8w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 15se 15sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
Forecast valid 15/0600z 14.3n 67.9w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 45se 45sw 60nw.
34 kt... 90ne 75se 75sw 90nw.
Forecast valid 16/0600z 16.0n 74.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 45se 45sw 60nw.
34 kt...100ne 75se 75sw 100nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 17/0600z 18.0n 80.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
Outlook valid 18/0600z 19.5n 86.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 11.1n 56.3w
next advisory at 13/1500z
forecaster Pasch
$$
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 10
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 13, 2005
The tropical cyclone is still in the organizing stage...and not very
symmetrical. Most of the deep convection is over the western and
southern portions of the circulation. Low cloud lines evident in
IR combination channel imagery suggest that the center is near the
northern edge of the main area of deep convection. In spite of the
storm's asymmetrical appearence...vertical shear remains weak over
the area. Perhaps the erosion of convection over the northeast
quadrant is due to an intrusion of drier air. Current intensity
estimate remains at 50 kt...and Air Force reconnaissance should
give US more precise information on the strength of Emily.
Upper-level outflow remains impressive and the SHIPS and GFDL model
predict significant strengthening of Emily as it moves over
increasingly warm Caribbean waters. My wind speed forecast is
quite close to the SHIPS guidance... and to the previous official
forecast. Emily could become a major hurricane in the western
Caribbean...but it should be noted that there is limited skill in
predicting tropical cyclone intensity change in 3-5 days.
Emily has been moving mostly westward...around 270/17. Dynamical
track prediction models are in good agreement on a generally
west-northwestward motion during the forecast period...as a large
area of mid-tropospheric high pressure is likely to remain to the
north of the tropical cyclone over the next several days. The
official track forecast is about in the middle of the dynamical
guidance suite...and also similar to the previous official
forecast.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/0900z 11.1n 56.3w 50 kt
12hr VT 13/1800z 11.6n 58.6w 60 kt
24hr VT 14/0600z 12.4n 61.7w 65 kt
36hr VT 14/1800z 13.3n 64.8w 75 kt
48hr VT 15/0600z 14.3n 67.9w 85 kt
72hr VT 16/0600z 16.0n 74.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 17/0600z 18.0n 80.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 18/0600z 19.5n 86.5w 100 kt
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 13, 2005
The tropical cyclone is still in the organizing stage...and not very
symmetrical. Most of the deep convection is over the western and
southern portions of the circulation. Low cloud lines evident in
IR combination channel imagery suggest that the center is near the
northern edge of the main area of deep convection. In spite of the
storm's asymmetrical appearence...vertical shear remains weak over
the area. Perhaps the erosion of convection over the northeast
quadrant is due to an intrusion of drier air. Current intensity
estimate remains at 50 kt...and Air Force reconnaissance should
give US more precise information on the strength of Emily.
Upper-level outflow remains impressive and the SHIPS and GFDL model
predict significant strengthening of Emily as it moves over
increasingly warm Caribbean waters. My wind speed forecast is
quite close to the SHIPS guidance... and to the previous official
forecast. Emily could become a major hurricane in the western
Caribbean...but it should be noted that there is limited skill in
predicting tropical cyclone intensity change in 3-5 days.
Emily has been moving mostly westward...around 270/17. Dynamical
track prediction models are in good agreement on a generally
west-northwestward motion during the forecast period...as a large
area of mid-tropospheric high pressure is likely to remain to the
north of the tropical cyclone over the next several days. The
official track forecast is about in the middle of the dynamical
guidance suite...and also similar to the previous official
forecast.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/0900z 11.1n 56.3w 50 kt
12hr VT 13/1800z 11.6n 58.6w 60 kt
24hr VT 14/0600z 12.4n 61.7w 65 kt
36hr VT 14/1800z 13.3n 64.8w 75 kt
48hr VT 15/0600z 14.3n 67.9w 85 kt
72hr VT 16/0600z 16.0n 74.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 17/0600z 18.0n 80.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 18/0600z 19.5n 86.5w 100 kt
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That forecasted WNW motion just ain't happening and I doubt very much that the center is anywhere near 11.1 north. 10.1 north, perhaps. People in Venezuela better be prepared because, in my estimation, that's where it's headed!
EDIT: BTW, why on earth is St. Lucia (and even St. Vincent, for that matter) still under a hurricane warning?
Does the NHC think that somehow Emily's going to suddenly slow down and make a sharp turn to the northwest or something?
EDIT: BTW, why on earth is St. Lucia (and even St. Vincent, for that matter) still under a hurricane warning?
Does the NHC think that somehow Emily's going to suddenly slow down and make a sharp turn to the northwest or something?
Last edited by abajan on Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Its possible....
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
More possible...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Could happen...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Most likely
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Maybe??? Little to north???
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
What out East coast!!! Not very likely.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
More possible...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Could happen...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Most likely
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Maybe??? Little to north???
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
What out East coast!!! Not very likely.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148502
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...OUTER BANDS OF EMILY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO
CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES... 320 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 MILES... 450
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF EMILY VERY
SHORTLY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
Recon did not reached it in time for advisory.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...OUTER BANDS OF EMILY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO
CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES... 320 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 MILES... 450
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF EMILY VERY
SHORTLY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
Recon did not reached it in time for advisory.
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wxwatcher91
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weatherwindow
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IMO, it may be because of the asymmetry of the system, with most of the north and east of the center...or possibly(this is less likely) they think that the center may be pulled north/relocate with that convection......richabajan wrote:That forecasted WNW motion just ain't happening and I doubt very much that the center is anywhere near 11.1 north. 10.1 north, perhaps. People in Venezuela better be prepared because, in my estimation, that's where it's headed!
EDIT: BTW, why on earth is St. Lucia (and even St. Vincent, for that matter) still under a hurricane warning?
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weatherwindow
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