Hurricane Emily Advisories

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stormie_skies
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#421 Postby stormie_skies » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:05 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:Patience... recon is on their way right now. If it is a Cat 5 then Recon will find it in a few hours. I believe the NHC just wants confirmation it's a Cat 5 before they declare it as such.


Yeah if Recon goes out there and finds pressures in the low 930's or upper 920's and flight level winds near 160 knts then you will be seeing a Cat 5 at 11 Pm....


Actually, I wouldnt be surprised if they upgraded it between advisories....they have been tacking on a lot of special avisories when recon comes back with new findings...
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#422 Postby mike18xx » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:08 pm

Wild-ass guess based on 2015z VIS-presentation: 925-930mb.
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#423 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:08 pm

stormie_skies wrote:Actually, I wouldnt be surprised if they upgraded it between advisories....they have been tacking on a lot of special avisories when recon comes back with new findings...



You do have a good point there stormie!
8-)
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#424 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:09 pm

HOW MUCH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS


It all boils down to that after she crosses the Yucatan
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#425 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:11 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:just think... this could have thwarted a record... and the intermediates arent kept either... Emily HAS to be a cat 5 at the 11pm report...


No... the intermediates are archived on the NHC site, and in the best track at the end of the year it would be shown as a Cat 5(as long as it's actually a Cat 5 on the advisories).
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#426 Postby yoda » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:11 pm

"COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT...WHILE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
INTENSITIES FROM COLA ARE CLOSER TO 135 KT."

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#427 Postby mike18xx » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:11 pm

stormie_skies wrote:they have been tacking on a lot of special avisories when recon comes back with new findings...
As much as I like 'em, I hate it when the Navy adjusts its satellite focus point (as they usually do) when wind/pressure are updated. (Makes for crummy long-loop-viewing.)
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#428 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:13 pm

yoda wrote:"COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT...WHILE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
INTENSITIES FROM COLA ARE CLOSER TO 135 KT."

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


:shocked!: :shocked!: :shocked!:
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#429 Postby corpusbreeze » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:13 pm

canegrl04 wrote:HOW MUCH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS


It all boils down to that after she crosses the Yucatan
Yeah, they are giving themselves a backdoor just in case. Still too many ifs.
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#430 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:15 pm

Yep, and I wouldn't discount anything Houston south
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#431 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:15 pm

yoda wrote:"COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT...WHILE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
INTENSITIES FROM COLA ARE CLOSER TO 135 KT."

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
The same SHIPS model that has 20KTS of nonexistant shear.
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#432 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:17 pm

Oh and the latest GOES EAST image is more impressive than the last... I'd bet the farm on lower pressure when recon gets there...
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#433 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:20 pm

gkrangers wrote:Oh and the latest GOES EAST image is more impressive than the last... I'd bet the farm on lower pressure when recon gets there...


Cat 5 when recon gets there.

It is more impressive...
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#434 Postby Swimdude » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:22 pm

THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT


Well, that would be some kind of awful.

Doesn't that equate to about, oh, 185 mph? Yup, that's Gilbert strength. :shocked!:
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#435 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:22 pm

Swimdude wrote:
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT


Well, that would be some kind of awful.

Doesn't that equate to about, oh, 185 mph? Yup, that's Gilbert strength. :shocked!:


155 kt 180 mph 160 kt 185 mph.
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#436 Postby stormie_skies » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:23 pm

Brent wrote:
Swimdude wrote:
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT


Well, that would be some kind of awful.

Doesn't that equate to about, oh, 185 mph? Yup, that's Gilbert strength. :shocked!:


155 kt 180 mph 160 kt 185 mph.


Oh my lord....... :eek:
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#437 Postby abajan » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT...

By my calculation (160 X 1.1515), that's 184.16 or about 185 mph! :eek:

(Ain't gonna happen) :lol:
Last edited by abajan on Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#438 Postby mike18xx » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:24 pm

gkrangers wrote:
yoda wrote:"COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT...WHILE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
INTENSITIES FROM COLA ARE CLOSER TO 135 KT."
The same SHIPS model that has 20KTS of nonexistant shear.
Regardless of whether or not shear is obvious (on satellite), being overriden and shunted downward by overshooting CDO exhaust, or is now completely gone, and SHIPS is, in consideration of 20kt shear, nevertheless suggesting 155+ kts -- and the model is as worthy as any other in present use -- it should tie a Cancun resort-owner's stomach in a knot to imagine what it would predict in the absence of shear.
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#439 Postby mike18xx » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:26 pm

..
Last edited by mike18xx on Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#440 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2005 4:28 pm

Image
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