Reminds me of Gilbert

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
TSmith274
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 756
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:11 am
Location: New Orleans, La.

Reminds me of Gilbert

#1 Postby TSmith274 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:13 pm

Maybe this has been mentioned before, but Emily reminds me of Gilbert. The track is similar, and the forecast is also similar to his track. Not to mention, the strength of this thing.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:16 pm

The track yes...

I would not be surpized if recon reported back that the pressure has droped 10 to 15 milibars since this morning. It was not looking anywhere near what it looks now then. I expect at least to find 158 knot winds at flight level.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4305
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

#3 Postby abajan » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:17 pm

It's much smaller than Gilbert, though.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TSmith274
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 756
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 1:11 am
Location: New Orleans, La.

#4 Postby TSmith274 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:18 pm

Yeah, it is. Emily will never get down to 888mb. I believe that was Gilbert's lowest pressure. Lowest on record, in fact. But yes, I really meant more of the track similarities.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#5 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:20 pm

The track is almost identical... I was only a baby when Gilbert hit though(born July 24, 1988).
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Valkhorn
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 492
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:09 am
Contact:
Contact Valkhorn

#6 Postby Valkhorn » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:25 pm

The track isn't identical.

Gilbert went through the spine of Jamaica.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
EDR1222
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1253
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:58 pm
Location: Melbourne, FL

#7 Postby EDR1222 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:19 pm

Not exactly like Gilbert, but on Satellite this evening, she sure looks like she might be a 5.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gilbert88
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:57 pm

#8 Postby gilbert88 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:24 pm

Gilbert was the worst Atlantic hurricane to hit Mexico in many years.

Fortunately this time the government has so far been very cautious and swift with the evacs. The worst thing about Emily is that she decided to nail Cancun in the busiest period of the year (usually one doesn't worry about CV-type canes in July).
0 likes   
Top
rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#9 Postby rtd2 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:28 pm

The Granddaddy of all!


Image
Last edited by rtd2 on Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#10 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:30 pm

That was a nice ERC he was going through at landfall.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
huricanwatcher
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 65
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:09 pm
Location: Kirkwood NY
Contact:
Contact huricanwatcher

#11 Postby huricanwatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:33 pm

TSmith274 wrote:Yeah, it is. Emily will never get down to 888mb. I believe that was Gilbert's lowest pressure. Lowest on record, in fact. But yes, I really meant more of the track similarities.



this storm is not over till 'the fat lady sings'
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Radar
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 425
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2004 11:04 pm
Location: Biloxi,MS

#12 Postby Radar » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:34 pm

Gosh looking at the old pic of Gilbert it is just phenomenal. Gilbert truly was "The Perfect Storm"... perfectly shaped that is :lol: What a monster!
0 likes   
Top
weather_sam
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Starkville, MS
Contact:
Contact weather_sam

#13 Postby weather_sam » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:37 pm

anyone here think Emily will be the first category 5 storm to form in the month of July?
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:41 pm

It has a chance once it comes out of the EWRC...But the enviroment is going to have to be perfect. In forecasting how the change over between the eyes(Inner to outter) is very hard. Last time the outter took over/had enough of the punch. So that the system holded most of it together. But who knows. Ivan did it three times.

But still for now its still a cat4...Even so its so close you can taste it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#15 Postby Swimdude » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:55 pm

Brent wrote:The track is almost identical... I was only a baby when Gilbert hit though(born July 24, 1988).


Five days younger than me. Happy early birthday! :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#16 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:57 pm

today was my bday...lol
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Cheese
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 365
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 am
Location: Green Bay, WI (UWGB Earth Science Alum)

#17 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:59 pm

Gilbert's lowest pressure was 882 mb from what I recall on my NOVA special on Hurricanes...

Everything is very similar except the size of the storms.

I know Gilbert struck the Yucatan with winds of 170 mph....and I think it's possible we could see a similar strike here.

Either way, there's going to be catastrophic damage on the pennisula within 36 hours I'm afraid...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#18 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:08 pm

Hurricane Cheese wrote:Gilbert's lowest pressure was 882 mb from what I recall on my NOVA special on Hurricanes...

Everything is very similar except the size of the storms.

I know Gilbert struck the Yucatan with winds of 170 mph....and I think it's possible we could see a similar strike here.

Either way, there's going to be catastrophic damage on the pennisula within 36 hours I'm afraid...


Ive always heard 888.
0 likes   
Top
rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#19 Postby rtd2 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:02 am

Normandy wrote:
Hurricane Cheese wrote:Gilbert's lowest pressure was 882 mb from what I recall on my NOVA special on Hurricanes...

Everything is very similar except the size of the storms.

I know Gilbert struck the Yucatan with winds of 170 mph....and I think it's possible we could see a similar strike here.

Either way, there's going to be catastrophic damage on the pennisula within 36 hours I'm afraid...


Ive always heard 888.



Yep 888mb and Strongest in WESTERN HEMI..NOT ALL TIME!


COMPARE GILBERT TO EMILY IN ABOUT THE SAME SPOT! :eek: :eek:

[img]
Compare Emily to Gilbert in about the SAME location....



Image

:eek:
0 likes   
Top
mike18xx

#20 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:10 am

huricanwatcher wrote:Emily will never get down to 888mb. I believe that was Gilbert's lowest pressure.
How do SSTs/heat-content at Gilbert's "bomb spot" compare this year versus 1988?

(Btw, based on your pic, it looks like Gilbert was actually being sheared by deep easterlies, which may account for the weakening and attendant EWRC. I.e., he was doing fine until some bastard snuck up and punched him in the back...the dirty cowards.)
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: riapal, wwizard and 50 guests