Cozumel--Getting Close!!!

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#21 Postby Swimdude » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:43 am

Amusingly enough, the 2 a.m. advisory says she hasn't made landfall yet. I do believe that's incorrect. :lol:

^

Or not, just proved myself wrong.

Image
Last edited by Swimdude on Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#22 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:43 am

It was actually 7 miles away i though from Cozumel...ahh big difference.

Anyway have yall seen the live reports from Cancun....the winds are SCREAMING u can her the howl.
0 likes   

rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#23 Postby rtd2 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:45 am

Normandy wrote:It was actually 7 miles away i though from Cozumel...ahh big difference.

Anyway have yall seen the live reports from Cancun....the winds are SCREAMING u can her the howl.



:eek: Thanks Normady!
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#24 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:46 am

Whats bad is its worse in Cozumel...and it sounded BAD in Cancun.

Oh BTW, Cozuumel hack in the eyewall...
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
Last edited by Normandy on Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#25 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:47 am

actually, this is not that much less than Gilbert wind wise. When Gilbert hit the Yucatan, winds had decreased to 140KT. At 115-125KT, this isnt much better
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#26 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:48 am

Derek Ortt wrote:actually, this is not that much less than Gilbert wind wise. When Gilbert hit the Yucatan, winds had decreased to 140KT. At 115-125KT, this isnt much better


What were the winds in the southern quad of Gilbert?
0 likes   

tallywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 798
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 10:19 am
Location: Raleigh/Durham, NC

#27 Postby tallywx » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:48 am

...went ahead and plotted the past three recon. obs. to get a visualization of her track. looks to be going in just north of tulum. xel ha marine preserve (one of my favorite places in mx) will be hit hard.

Image
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#28 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:49 am

If you are hearing live reports they are OK.

The windfield of this hurricane is already known to be narrow. They could use that Google to show you Cancun is over 50 miles north of the landfall...
Last edited by Sanibel on Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#29 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:50 am

Yes but point is you could hear the winds screaming...so they must be pretty strong (I also saw the palms being lashed).
0 likes   

JTD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1558
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2003 6:35 pm

#30 Postby JTD » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:52 am

Normandy, where are you seeing the live reports?

I'd be very interested in seeing those as well. I hope it's not TWC as I don't get them.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#31 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:53 am

The map is excellent. Cozumel is about 38 miles long. Cancun is the little strip over twice the length of Cozumel north along the Yucatan coast.
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#32 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:56 am

So ur telling me that Cancun is over 100 miles from Cozumel?
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7404
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#33 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:58 am

Its hitting cozumel
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#34 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:58 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Its hitting cozumel


I agree it is I just said that Cancun was getting strong winds.

BTW center is coming ashore near Tulum east of Cozumel.
Last edited by Normandy on Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

gkrangers

#35 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:00 am

Normandy wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Its hitting cozumel


I agree it is I just said that Cancun was getting strong winds.
Just cuz people will get confused...Cancun is experience strong winds, but nothing like southern Cozumel and Tulum.
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#36 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:01 am

gkrangers wrote:
Normandy wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Its hitting cozumel


I agree it is I just said that Cancun was getting strong winds.
Just cuz people will get confused...Cancun is experience strong winds, but nothing like southern Cozumel and Tulum.


Well, Cancun is gettin strong winds...Cozumel is just getting VIOLENT winds :(
0 likes   

gkrangers

#37 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:02 am

Normandy wrote:
gkrangers wrote:
Normandy wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Its hitting cozumel


I agree it is I just said that Cancun was getting strong winds.
Just cuz people will get confused...Cancun is experience strong winds, but nothing like southern Cozumel and Tulum.


Well, Cancun is gettin strong winds...Cozumel is just getting VIOLENT winds :(
Thats a good way of putting it.
0 likes   

gkrangers

#38 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:03 am

OMG I'M A CAT 1 !!!!!!
0 likes   

tallywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 798
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 10:19 am
Location: Raleigh/Durham, NC

#39 Postby tallywx » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:03 am

Using the trusty measuring tool, the very southern tip of the Cancun "isla" resort area is 53.3 miles from the very southern tip of Cozumel. Cancun's old downtown is 62 miles, and the northern "isla" resort hub is 61 miles. Emily is at closest approach to Cancun right now at 69 miles from the resort hub.

Compare that to say Dennis hitting just east of Pensacola on Santa Rosa Island, and 69 miles is how far away the exact midpoint of Panama City Beach was from the eye at landfall.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7404
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#40 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 18, 2005 1:05 am

Thats true, and makes sense
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 239 guests