Back to a westward course

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tailgater
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Back to a westward course

#1 Postby tailgater » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:19 am

As Emily has emrged over the GOM she has got back on westward track. NHC will probablly keep her track intact with last adv.
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#2 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:21 am

I disagree. She's moving NW now. Models initalized at a NW heading.
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#3 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:22 am

Thunder44 wrote:I disagree. She's moving NW now. Models initalized at a NW heading.


Absolutely, you beat me to the post! There's no way Emily is moving westward at the moment .. she's clearly moving northwest. And that is troubling to me as my concerns for south Texas grow by the minute!
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#4 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:25 am

Eh....wnw would be a better heading imo.
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#5 Postby x-y-no » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:26 am

I see no evidence of a turn yet. let's wait for a a few hours of visible imagery before we start jumping to conclusions.

Jan
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#6 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:30 am

I checked both water vapor and infrared. To my eye, Emily has more of a northwest component than a west component. But yeah, we will all know soon enough.
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#7 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:44 am

Emily has been on a more NW course than expected through the Yucatan, imo. However, I would expect the more WNW track to reappear pretty soon because the heights in the rdge to her N have been building as opposed to diminishing. this means it is holding strong and/or even expanding West. The trough traversing North of the ridge could weaken it a little, but it is expected to build back in. I sure hope it does. We don't need a landfalling CAT4 in any of th epopulated areas of the GOM and yes I am including Northern Mexico in that.
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#8 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 18, 2005 8:55 am

I think she is still headed toward the Upper Mexican coastline
despite her earlier NW movement. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#9 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:12 am

Emily is headed for a S.Texas landfall
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#10 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:19 am

Unbiased look, WNW!!!! Very close to being rate on the NHC track into Mexico!
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#11 Postby Normandy » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:21 am

Well its prolly gonna pass north of theiir forecast point.
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#12 Postby dwg71 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:26 am

probably so, but well within their cone of error. Emily has missed most every point, maybe a little south, maybe a little north. Hurricanes dont travel in a straight line. There has been no real divergence from the NHC track in the past 4-5 days. Dont expect one now.
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#13 Postby wx247 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:33 am

Between the 11 pm and 5 am advisory... Emily had moved .5N and .5W! But between the 5 and 8 advisory it had moved .6N and .9W! There are the numbers for you folks. Hard to argue with those.
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#14 Postby djtil » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:36 am

Emily is headed for a S.Texas landfall


come on....with a comment like that so opposed to any evidence at least state your reasons.
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#15 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:43 am

ok, to continue earlier post....
between the 8am adv...and 11am adv....6N and .7W...
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#16 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jul 18, 2005 9:56 am

Looks to me like she was heading NW then took a WNW jog as she emerged over the water.

Looks like land vs. water interaction was in play there. Similiar to Isidore but not as severe.
Last edited by jasons2k on Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#17 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:00 am

yeah, i agree she is heading 300 right now...i agree...NW movement right now with WNW wobbles...Time will tell
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#18 Postby Swimdude » Mon Jul 18, 2005 10:34 am

I thought the discussion said she was moving at 305... *Shrug* I won't get into this much, I still say N. Mexico.
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#19 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:04 am

its right around 300.
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#20 Postby southerngale » Mon Jul 18, 2005 11:09 am

djtil wrote:
Emily is headed for a S.Texas landfall


come on....with a comment like that so opposed to any evidence at least state your reasons.


Geez, you make it sound like she said Miami or Tampa! South Texas is in the cone. How is that so opposed to any evidence?
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