Hurricane Emily Advisories
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DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 115
MPH... MAKING EMILY A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONALLY... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS DROPPED TO 942 MB... OR 27.82 INCHES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 115
MPH... MAKING EMILY A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONALLY... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS DROPPED TO 942 MB... OR 27.82 INCHES.
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HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
AT 5 PM CDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES... 190 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 155
MILES...245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
AT 5 PM CDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES... 190 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 155
MILES...245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
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#neversummer
323
WTNT65 KNHC 192157
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
448 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
AND ARE AT LEAST 120 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530
PM CDT...2230Z...REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
WTNT65 KNHC 192157
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
448 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
AND ARE AT LEAST 120 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530
PM CDT...2230Z...REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
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- Pebbles
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000
WTNT65 KNHC 192157
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
448 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
AND ARE AT LEAST 120 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530
PM CDT...2230Z...REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
WTNT65 KNHC 192157
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
448 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
AND ARE AT LEAST 120 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530
PM CDT...2230Z...REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
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- cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
A special Advisorie will be issued at 5:30 PM CDT.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139234
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
870
WTNT35 KNHC 192239
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
...EMILY REGAINS MAJOR CATEGORY THREE STATUS WITH 125 MPH WINDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
168 KM... EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215
KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 96.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT35 KNHC 192239
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
...EMILY REGAINS MAJOR CATEGORY THREE STATUS WITH 125 MPH WINDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
168 KM... EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215
KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 96.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2300Z TUE JUL 19 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.0W AT 19/2300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 35SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..190NE 100SE 120SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.0W AT 19/2300Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 95.1W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 96.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
FORECASTER KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2300Z TUE JUL 19 2005
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.0W AT 19/2300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 35SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..190NE 100SE 120SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.0W AT 19/2300Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 95.1W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 96.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
FORECASTER KNABB
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#neversummer
032
WTNT45 KNHC 192248
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF EMILY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB
FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 122 KT AT 2126Z...
SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE WINDS HAVE NOW
CAUGHT UP TO THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT WAS ALREADY TYPICAL
OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ADDITIONALLY... THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE
LATEST AIRCRAFT DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS... AND EMILY COULD REACH
CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
NOT BEEN CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2300Z 24.5N 96.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
WTNT45 KNHC 192248
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF EMILY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB
FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 122 KT AT 2126Z...
SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE WINDS HAVE NOW
CAUGHT UP TO THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT WAS ALREADY TYPICAL
OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ADDITIONALLY... THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE
LATEST AIRCRAFT DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS... AND EMILY COULD REACH
CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
NOT BEEN CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2300Z 24.5N 96.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139234
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ZCZC MIATCEAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
AT 7 PM CDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES... 160 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 130
MILES... 215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
FORECASTER KNABB
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
AT 7 PM CDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES... 160 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 130
MILES... 215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
FORECASTER KNABB
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- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Andy_L,
Those advisories are listed as Central Time. The 7 pm CDT position estimate was 8 pm EDT. The 8 pm CDT advisory will be out at around 9 pm EDT.
Those advisories are listed as Central Time. The 7 pm CDT position estimate was 8 pm EDT. The 8 pm CDT advisory will be out at around 9 pm EDT.
Last edited by donsutherland1 on Tue Jul 19, 2005 7:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139234
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Andy_L wrote:Luis? is there no 8pm advisory etc tonight?????
No look below.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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- Matt-hurricanewatcher
- Category 5
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 200055
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY SPREADING OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
168 KM... EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215
KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
EMILY HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED BUT IS SOON EXPECTED TO RESUME A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...15 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...
AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...24.4 N... 96.1 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
$$
WTNT35 KNHC 200055
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY SPREADING OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
168 KM... EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215
KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
EMILY HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED BUT IS SOON EXPECTED TO RESUME A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...15 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...
AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...24.4 N... 96.1 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
$$
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