115 with 4% RH
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azskyman
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We also had some thunderstorms that stayed active well after sunset last night and hugged the eastern quadrant of the city. Dust storm was pretty serious for about 20 minutes as visibilities dropped to less than a 1/4 mile for a brief time. Lightning was frequent to the east, but produced no rain here.
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
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- Location: central florida
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weatherlover427
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 915 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005
.SHORT TERM...THIS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING MORNINGS IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH REGARD TO THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED NEAR PHOENIX OVERNIGHT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD, REACHING THE INLAND EMPIRE JUST AFTER 12Z AND INTO LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES A COUPLE HOURS LATER. AT THE SAME TIME, AN EDDY CIRCULATION WAS DEVELOPING AS EVIDENCED BY THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST AND THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE MARINE LYR. TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOCATIONS DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES IN ONE HOUR AS WINDS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EITHER AS A RESULT OF THE EDDY OR THE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, ONE HOUR LATER, THE TEMPS IN MANY LOCATIONS REBOUNDED TO AT OR ABOVE YESTERDAY`S LEVELS.
WE`RE STILL GETTING MIXED SIGNALS WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE LAX PROFILER STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT COOLING FROM 1000 TO 5000 FEET. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS, MOST LOCATIONS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER, AND THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE NOW PRETTY MUCH STOPPED. SO WITH ALL THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION, IT LOOKS LIKE DESPITE THE EDDY CIRCULATION THAT IS OBVIOUSLY FORMING AS WE SPEAK THAT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY, CONTRARY TO WHAT WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY. SO WE`RE GOING TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.
ALSO WATCHING THE CLOUDS MOVING INTO SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES FROM THAT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN AZ OVERNIGHT. NKX SOUNDING WAS PRETTY UNSTABLE ABOVE THE MARINE INVERSION, BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE IN A VERY NARROW BAND AND TOO HIGH TO REALLY HAVE MUCH IMPACT. FOR NOW OUR DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, THE NAM IS NOW SHOWING SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND EVEN INDICATES LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS AT ALL AND AT THIS POINT I`M LEANING TOWARDS GOING WITH PERSISTENCE UNTIL I HAVE REASON TO BELIEVE OTHERWISE, AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH INDICATES AS WELL.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER HIGH WILL HOLD STRONGLY OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...SO THE HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE VLYS...MTNS... AND DSRTS FRI. MONSOONAL MSTR MAY GET CLOSE LATE THU AND FRI...BUT BLV IT WILL STAY TO THE S AND E OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MONSOONAL MSTR SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS ON PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE MTNS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VLY LOOKS GOOD FOR SAT AND SUN...AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE CHANCE MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA AS WELL. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. UPR FLOW TURNS SWLY BY MON WHICH WOULD PUSH ANY MSTR E OF THE AREA.
.AVIATION... FORECAST FOR THE LA COASTAL SITES LOW CONFIDENCE TODAY. ADVANCEMENT OF STRATUS NORTH FROM ORANGE COUNTY SEEMS TO BE ABATING. WILL PROBABLY HAVE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SINCE THE LAX PROFILER DATA NOW SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS RADICALLY DEEPENED TO NEAR 1400 FT. KLAX WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF SOME SCT-BKN IFR CONDS DEVELOP ON THE HEELS OF THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN. KLGB IFR CONDS SHOULD GO VFR BY LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...TAFS FOLLOWING TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. LOW CONFIDENCE ALSO CONTINUES FOR THE LATER TAF PERIODS AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING STRENGTH OF EDDY CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...MOYER
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This from this morning's 9:30 am AFD out of the Los Angeles / Oxnard NWS office here. I find it interesting that the outflow from that huge storm complex made it all the way out here.
.SHORT TERM...THIS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING MORNINGS IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH REGARD TO THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. A VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED NEAR PHOENIX OVERNIGHT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD, REACHING THE INLAND EMPIRE JUST AFTER 12Z AND INTO LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES A COUPLE HOURS LATER. AT THE SAME TIME, AN EDDY CIRCULATION WAS DEVELOPING AS EVIDENCED BY THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST AND THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE MARINE LYR. TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOCATIONS DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES IN ONE HOUR AS WINDS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EITHER AS A RESULT OF THE EDDY OR THE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, ONE HOUR LATER, THE TEMPS IN MANY LOCATIONS REBOUNDED TO AT OR ABOVE YESTERDAY`S LEVELS.
WE`RE STILL GETTING MIXED SIGNALS WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE LAX PROFILER STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT COOLING FROM 1000 TO 5000 FEET. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS, MOST LOCATIONS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, THE ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER, AND THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE NOW PRETTY MUCH STOPPED. SO WITH ALL THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION, IT LOOKS LIKE DESPITE THE EDDY CIRCULATION THAT IS OBVIOUSLY FORMING AS WE SPEAK THAT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY, CONTRARY TO WHAT WE THOUGHT YESTERDAY. SO WE`RE GOING TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.
ALSO WATCHING THE CLOUDS MOVING INTO SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES FROM THAT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN AZ OVERNIGHT. NKX SOUNDING WAS PRETTY UNSTABLE ABOVE THE MARINE INVERSION, BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE IN A VERY NARROW BAND AND TOO HIGH TO REALLY HAVE MUCH IMPACT. FOR NOW OUR DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, THE NAM IS NOW SHOWING SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT LOW LEVELS AND EVEN INDICATES LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS AT ALL AND AT THIS POINT I`M LEANING TOWARDS GOING WITH PERSISTENCE UNTIL I HAVE REASON TO BELIEVE OTHERWISE, AS OUR CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH INDICATES AS WELL.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM...THE UPPER HIGH WILL HOLD STRONGLY OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY...SO THE HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE VLYS...MTNS... AND DSRTS FRI. MONSOONAL MSTR MAY GET CLOSE LATE THU AND FRI...BUT BLV IT WILL STAY TO THE S AND E OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MONSOONAL MSTR SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS ON PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE MTNS OF L.A./VTU COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VLY LOOKS GOOD FOR SAT AND SUN...AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE CHANCE MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA AS WELL. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. UPR FLOW TURNS SWLY BY MON WHICH WOULD PUSH ANY MSTR E OF THE AREA.
.AVIATION... FORECAST FOR THE LA COASTAL SITES LOW CONFIDENCE TODAY. ADVANCEMENT OF STRATUS NORTH FROM ORANGE COUNTY SEEMS TO BE ABATING. WILL PROBABLY HAVE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SINCE THE LAX PROFILER DATA NOW SHOWING THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAS RADICALLY DEEPENED TO NEAR 1400 FT. KLAX WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF SOME SCT-BKN IFR CONDS DEVELOP ON THE HEELS OF THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN. KLGB IFR CONDS SHOULD GO VFR BY LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...TAFS FOLLOWING TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. LOW CONFIDENCE ALSO CONTINUES FOR THE LATER TAF PERIODS AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING STRENGTH OF EDDY CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...MOYER
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This from this morning's 9:30 am AFD out of the Los Angeles / Oxnard NWS office here. I find it interesting that the outflow from that huge storm complex made it all the way out here.
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weatherlover427
Our local NWS offices have added a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, even down towards the coastal areas, for today due to the convection from the past few days out your way that has been juicing our atmosphere up the past few days. We have had isolated showers and thunderstorms but they are going to become much more widespread the next few days as the remnants of Emily approach.
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Atmosphere getting juicier
Today should be a very interesting day for us in Southern California as well as our neighbors in Arizona.
There is a huge slug of moisture getting funneled up by the ridge of high pressure over us. It is looking very good for T-storms in Arizona and the mountains of SD, LA, San Bernardino, and Riverside counties. The surrounding deserts will also see some rain.
I don't know if the coastal and valley sections of SoCal will see rain...probably some lightning off to the east, but that may be it. I think the better chance for us, will be on Saturday w/the remnants of Hurricane Emily. In fact, the atmosphere may be too saturated, and instability may be limited. We will have to see.
There is a huge slug of moisture getting funneled up by the ridge of high pressure over us. It is looking very good for T-storms in Arizona and the mountains of SD, LA, San Bernardino, and Riverside counties. The surrounding deserts will also see some rain.
I don't know if the coastal and valley sections of SoCal will see rain...probably some lightning off to the east, but that may be it. I think the better chance for us, will be on Saturday w/the remnants of Hurricane Emily. In fact, the atmosphere may be too saturated, and instability may be limited. We will have to see.
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azskyman
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- Location: Scottsdale Arizona
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18 deaths, mostly homeless people dehydrating and not able to escape the heat, even at night here. We've had 13 days out of 20 above 110 this month...four more also in June, so that is 17 above 110! A hot summer even by Phoenix standards.
"Cooler" temperatures the next week (highs from 100-109) will be at the expense of higher humidities, so the net result will be even more taxing to those without shelter.
On the plus side, if you can believe them, the power companies say that they are operating with about a 15-20% surplus of power available as needed for a/c.
I had a new heat pump/ac unit put in before the summer arrived. At least preliminary usage of the 16.5 SEER unit seems to on paper be saving me about 35%, this summer is a serious test.
"Cooler" temperatures the next week (highs from 100-109) will be at the expense of higher humidities, so the net result will be even more taxing to those without shelter.
On the plus side, if you can believe them, the power companies say that they are operating with about a 15-20% surplus of power available as needed for a/c.
I had a new heat pump/ac unit put in before the summer arrived. At least preliminary usage of the 16.5 SEER unit seems to on paper be saving me about 35%, this summer is a serious test.
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azsnowman
- Category 5
- Posts: 8591
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 8:56 pm
- Location: Pinetop Arizona. Elevation 7102' (54 miles west of NM border)
Re: Rain
aveosmth wrote:Did any of you guys in AZ see any rain/t-storms yesterday?
Nope......guess I'm living in a "Monsoon Dry Slot", boomers ALL around me and NOTHING here at the house!!
Dennis
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Aslkahuna
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 5:00 pm
- Location: Tucson, AZ
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For far SE AZ, chances are very poor for very much through Saturday-too much cloud cover not enough dynamics. The deserts will fare better because of low level moisture and more heating. Sunday MAY see an uptick in thunderstorm activity but will still not be a high grade monsoon pattern.
Steve
Steve
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