92L Invest

wxmann_91 · #181 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:27 am

Wow, 9 pages here for something, IMO, that won't develop into anything more than a TD or TS. And it probably won't develop at all. At first, it's the land, but more importantly, the shear is everywhere in the Atlantic, though it's decreasing in the Bahamas.

Does anybody seriously think that this system can make it? I highly doubt it. And I sure hope that the NHC will cancel the recon flight into it, they won't find anything more than a weak MLC.

Website · #182 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:29 am

wxmann_91 wrote:Wow, 9 pages here for something, IMO, that won't develop into anything more than a TD or TS. And it probably won't develop at all. At first, it's the land, but more importantly, the shear is everywhere in the Atlantic, though it's decreasing in the Bahamas.

Does anybody seriously think that this system can make it? I highly doubt it. And I sure hope that the NHC will cancel the recon flight into it, they won't find anything more than a weak MLC.

Recon is going... even though I don't think they will find anything.

#183 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:31 am

Brent wrote:I don't see any low-level center??? It's in the islands so it looks like there would be a West Wind somewhere.

That's because there is no LLC, just an open wave. Here's a 15Z plot. Straight E-SE wind through the islands and 1015-1017 mb pressures:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/harvey4.gif">

#184 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:32 am

wxmann_91 wrote:Wow, 9 pages here for something, IMO, that won't develop into anything more than a TD or TS. And it probably won't develop at all. At first, it's the land, but more importantly, the shear is everywhere in the Atlantic, though it's decreasing in the Bahamas.

Does anybody seriously think that this system can make it? I highly doubt it. And I sure hope that the NHC will cancel the recon flight into it, they won't find anything more than a weak MLC.

I give it maybe a 30-40% chance of development. Right now, it's just a "normal" wave.

Derek Ortt · #185 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:34 am

there is a south wind over one of the islands, confirming the QS.

I highly doubt that there is a closed circ though. That said, TD 9 in 2003 was called as a TD based upon a single ship report of a west wind, that was an obvious error, 100NM away from the center

#186 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:41 am

wxman57 wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:Wow, 9 pages here for something, IMO, that won't develop into anything more than a TD or TS. And it probably won't develop at all. At first, it's the land, but more importantly, the shear is everywhere in the Atlantic, though it's decreasing in the Bahamas.

Does anybody seriously think that this system can make it? I highly doubt it. And I sure hope that the NHC will cancel the recon flight into it, they won't find anything more than a weak MLC.

I give it maybe a 30-40% chance of development. Right now, it's just a "normal" wave.

The NHC normally doesn't predict classifying a wave into a TD unless they feel strongly about it's chances. I've seen far worse looking "waves" become hurricanes in a short span of time. I'm not saying this one will. I'm just saying it has a better chance than some on this board think it does.

#187 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:42 am

wxmann_91 wrote:Wow, 9 pages here for something, IMO, that won't develop into anything more than a TD or TS. And it probably won't develop at all. At first, it's the land, but more importantly, the shear is everywhere in the Atlantic, though it's decreasing in the Bahamas.

Does anybody seriously think that this system can make it? I highly doubt it. And I sure hope that the NHC will cancel the recon flight into it, they won't find anything more than a weak MLC.

Yes.

Opal storm · #188 Postby **Opal storm** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:45 am

Guys,I don't think they would send recon out there for nothing.

Rainband · #189 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:45 am

Open Wave Right now.

TS Zack · #190 Postby **TS Zack** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:47 am

They do not want to screw-up like they did with the past storms. Past storms were obvious depressions before they were named. This one will probably become a depression sometime this weekend.

Everyone remembers how quick Franklin spun-up. This one could also! So let Reconn fly and check on it.

Thunder44 · #191 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:50 am

wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:I don't see any low-level center??? It's in the islands so it looks like there would be a West Wind somewhere.

That's because there is no LLC, just an open wave. Here's a 15Z plot. Straight E-SE wind through the islands and 1015-1017 mb pressures:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/harvey4.gif">

There are no surface obs east of the Islands. So you can't determine whether there is or not a LLC. The winds on Puerto Rico and the NE islands would support theoratically a LLC to the SW in the NE Carribean Sea. Also visible images show Low level turning in that area.

#192 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:51 am

Since the information about recon got out yesterday in the islands that was diseminated by all the radio and TV weather persons in the islands they had to do the go ahead and fly because then the people in the islands would say if it is cancelled (if this would be in the Gulf of Mexico rapidly they fly).

#193 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:53 am

Opal storm wrote:Guys,I don't think they would send recon out there for nothing.

Generally, large open waves with spotty thunderstorms do not develop very rapidly. There is very clearly nothing there but an open wave, and the NHC surely can see that and won't send a plane out -- unless it is just to confirm that nothing is developing.

#194 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:55 am

TS Zack wrote:Everyone remembers how quick Franklin spun-up. This one could also! So let Reconn fly and check on it.

Franklin had a solid, persistent, consolidated core of heavy squalls. This wave has only spotty thunderstorms. There's no way it can spin up quickly.

x-y-no · #195 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:57 am

GFS is trending weaker and weaker with every run.

12Z run pretty much loses it within the first couple of days - only a much weaker wave progressing WNW.

PTrackerLA · #196 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:58 am

WASTE OF FUEL! There's clearly no closed LLC out there right now, I just don't see why they're flying unless it's because it was announced on TWC and the islands as cycloneye stated. If the convection was consolidated I'd say go ahead and go but all we have is a mass of scattered, unorganized thunderstorms...but given this season so far I woudn't be surprised if it does develop after all.

hurricanefloyd5 · #197 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 11:04 am

Opal storm wrote:Guys,I don't think they would send recon out there for nothing.

the nhc dosnt perposely waste us the tax payers money for nothing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hurricanefloyd5 · #198 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 11:04 am

Opal storm wrote:Guys,I don't think they would send recon out there for nothing.

jax · #199 Postby **jax** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 11:06 am

Starting to look more and more like a Cindy track...
Looks like a center is starting to form south of PR
and heading west... NHC even mentioned a West
to WNW motion. Looks like another possible GOM'er

TS Zack · #200 Postby **TS Zack** » Fri Jul 29, 2005 11:06 am

The night before, I doubted Franklin's formation because there was nothing to him. All it took was a few large burst of thunderstorm activity overnight.

By morning he was certainly a depression. This thing has scattered convection with nothing concentrating in a blob. Doesn't look good at all.

I didn't think the Reconn was necessary either but the NHC has alot more imagery than us, so they must see something we don't.

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