ITCZ Wave 1008mb: RAMSDIS Floater Moved

[drezee]

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.
A BROAD 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR 11N28.5W ON THE WAVE AXIS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BROAD LOW
HAS FORMED BASICALLY WITHIN THE ITCZ THOUGH THERE ARE ONLY A FEW
TSTMS. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST WRAPS AROUND THE N SIDE OF THE
WAVE N OF 15N E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 24N. A MAJORITY OF COMPUTER
MODELS INSIST ON THE GENESIS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS
WAVE BUT THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST FORMATION IS LIKELY
ANYTIME SOON.

[WeatherEmperor]

interesting.

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahooo!!! Sounds very interesting!!!

[cycloneye]

However not to spoil the party but if something trys to form it has to contend with plenty of dry air around.

[WeatherEmperor]

if this keeps happening then NOAA might be right on their prediction.

<RICKY>

[clfenwi]

That's the wave I was talking about in this post:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 183#982183

As I described and the TWD alludes, there are a few models that are bullish on this system... in a near term way too, not the notorious 120+ hour projections... if it manages in the dry air enviroment, we could see something get going once the wave makes it to 40-45° West.

[TS Zack]

That dry air is beginning to retreat northward and weakening.

Isn't it interesting how a couple hours ago we were all like this is soooo boring. Now we have two systems to talk about.

[WindRunner]

I was just looking at that . . . the two surface pressures are equal. A little more circulation on that and #9 will be there less than 12 hours after circulation shows up.

yeah, 40-45W looks like a good place for one to start.

[johngaltfla]

Hello Irene.

Ugh.

[EDR1222]

That dry air is beginning to retreat northward and weakening.

Isn't it interesting how a couple hours ago we were all like this is soooo boring. Now we have two systems to talk about.

Things can definately change fast! It will be interesting to see if it can develope with the dry air still in the vicinity.

[cycloneye]

A MAJORITY OF COMPUTER
MODELS INSIST ON THE GENESIS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS
WAVE BUT THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST FORMATION IS LIKELY
ANYTIME SOON.

drezee the title of thread does not corresponds to what Blake wrote at his discussion of wave as the word (suggest) is used at discussion but in another manner.

[johngaltfla]

A MAJORITY OF COMPUTER
MODELS INSIST ON THE GENESIS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS
WAVE BUT THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST FORMATION IS LIKELY
ANYTIME SOON.

drezee the title of thread does not corresponds to what Blake wrote at his discussion of wave as the word (suggest) is used at discussion but in another manner.

I'm thinking 36 hours. The dry air and SAL appears to be migrating out of the season just in time for CV season to crank up in full force.

[WindRunner]

However,

MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS S OF 15N E OF 40W WITH LESS SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...

Sounds like the SAL is weakening a bit, maybe a significant change over next 48hrs?

[drezee]

A MAJORITY OF COMPUTER
MODELS INSIST ON THE GENESIS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS
WAVE BUT THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST FORMATION IS LIKELY
ANYTIME SOON.

drezee the title of thread does not corresponds to what Blake wrote at his discussion of wave as the word (suggest) is used at discussion but in another manner.

Ahh, Cycloneye we have foiled since the Lowe's Board. Racing to post the advisories first, trying to start the thread before anyone else does. Now that you are an admin, its no fun anymore. You just replace the threads with the "official" title and it is no more. Sometimes I miss the old days, those were the good ol' days. Where would I be without you...

I do like the new look and title:

Thread Nazi "No Thread 4U!"


I guess I kinda enjoy the scrutiny. I mean for you to disect the word "possible" to means something different "anytime soon." Let me use both of them in a sentence to show how they are related.

Development is possible, but not anytime soon. That sounds good together now doesn't it...

[tailgater]

[Stormcenter]

But it sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo far away.

[KatDaddy]

Yahoo!!!!!!!!!

Lets hear for Lowes

Ah yes nostalgic times indeed but must admit the Admin keep Storm2k from destruction.

Lowes were the carefree awakening times learning there were many individuals just like me

[cycloneye]

A MAJORITY OF COMPUTER
MODELS INSIST ON THE GENESIS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS
WAVE BUT THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST FORMATION IS LIKELY
ANYTIME SOON.

drezee the title of thread does not corresponds to what Blake wrote at his discussion of wave as the word (suggest) is used at discussion but in another manner.

Ahh, Cycloneye we have foiled since the Lowe's Board. Racing to post the advisories first, trying to start the thread before anyone else does. Now that you are an admin, its no fun anymore. You just replace the threads with the "official" title and it is no more. Sometimes I miss the old days, those were the good ol' days. Where would I be without you...

I do like the new look and title:

Thread Nazi "No Thread 4U!"


I guess I kinda enjoy the scrutiny. I mean for you to disect the word "possible" to means something different "anytime soon." Let me use both of them in a sentence to show how they are related.

Development is possible, but not anytime soon. That sounds good together now doesn't it...

What a memorie those days at gopbi.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

How many days away is this thing from the Antilles? Being at that longitude west I mean, not necessarily over the Antilles.

[Lowpressure]

Around 5 days from Antilles area, if it stays westerly.