TD 9 has no true closed circ

[Derek Ortt]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas112.png

any circ is well to the SW of the vortmax being tracked right now

[Jim Cantore]

I'm starting to think this wont be Irene at all

[lilbump3000]

Maybe the wave to the SE of the cape verde islands might have a chance at becoming Irene.

[Derecho]

Sort of hard to compare a QS pass from 9 hours ago to current visibles.

[Derek Ortt]

current visibles do look a bit more impressive, though IR 2 last night also indicated some type of circulation as well.

In any event, the system is struggling

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yes, This thing is not following anybody's forecast at this point. Avila has it right. None of the the tools will work I guess until it either gets stronger i.e. acts like a real cyclone or blows away. Too much fighting of dry air and winds right now. Surely in 24 hours we'll be able to tell

[BensonTCwatcher]

Forgot to ask Derek, what's you take on the ridge vs. weakness or steering currents at this point? ...won't hold you to it

[WXFIEND]

and so the trend towards a recurve begins.....

[storms in NC]

you can see here it is almost due w again but who knows what is it going to do. I bet the NHC is pulling the hair out about now lol

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[Thunder44]

I don't think we QS to tell us whether or not we have a closed circulation. What happened to just plain looking at a satellite visible imagery?

[Derek Ortt]

we use QS because it can tell precisely if there is a closed circ. We dont just look at visible imagery because there is newer tech that can tell more precisely.

Tonight's pass will be important

[deltadog03]

i see a closed system...also, i see a W movement currently...also, the ridge is starting to really fill in now...

[WXFIEND]

how can you tell the ridge is filling in???

I don't know whether to be more concerned about this things lack of convection/organization or whether it'll recurve or not...

[Ivanhater]

well this needs to fall apart fast or strengthen fast! because if it strengthens fast a recurve path is likely, but if it stays weak and not fall apart then as winston churchill would say it lives to fight another day

[deltadog03]

there was a map posted in another thread...trying to find it

[chadtm80]

I believe there is still a closed circ... But obviously ortt is correct.. QS is a must

[Wnghs2007]

How does QS work? How does it get the obs, is it a satilite that estimates the winds?

[Derek Ortt]

I believe it measures some quantity of radiation, like microwave imagery does, but I am not sure

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It might go down to an open wave, but I think it might come back in 24 - 48 hr. If it can survive, and head mostly west, the environment will be more favorable in the area it'll be in by that time.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Derek Ortt]

I am also expecting some regeneration early next week of this feature