TD#9

[elysium]

This hour, 95L appears to be under a strong ridge of high pressure building in from the east and heading due west. While 95L has been a little lackluster in its developmental itinerary, it has managed to hold together and gain some convection onto its eastern quadrant. SST's more conducive for moderate intensification lay to 95L's immediate west about 12 hours driving distance at the current pace of 20 mph. We should see 95L attain named storm status before the 11 pm this evening as a minimal tropical storm with questionable future developmental prospects.

Until 95L arrives nearer proximity to the waters just to the north of Puerto Rico/ Leeward Islands, estimates on storm intensity will amount to little more than rough and unsubstantiated intuitive guesswork based upon the fluctuating sometimes a little more conducive, sometimes a little less so happenstances of storm environmental considerations in constant change with each ebb and flow of convection, and every rise and fall of pressure commesurate with each and every eyewall replacement cycle. Instrumentation doesn't exist that can give us any real handle on intensity. It is a fair assumption, however, that as 95L draws nearer to the waters just north of Puerto Rico, a more rapid intensification process will ensue, especially as high pressure improves what by that time promises to be a full fledged hurricane of gaining momentum.

This one mirrors Hurricane Andrew only as reguards conditions aloft on days 5 through 7, and is a much larger system than Andrew. We should expect a hurricane of lesser intensity juxtaposed Andrew, but one of comparable size to some of the larger hurricanes that intensified rapidly in this same region and under these same conditions, such as Hurricane Hugo and either/ or Isabel and Floyd, heading generally W.N.W. under a building ridge.

We cannot give any definative estimate on storm strength. All that we can say with any resonable level of certainty is that there is no longer any opportunity for recurvature, either now or as 95L nears Puerto Rico. As it looks now, recurvature will not take place until 95L enters the GOM. This is not to say, however, that 95L will not run itself out. This can easily happen if 95L increases its forward speed above that which it has set on for now. There is a possibility that 95L shall self-extinguishly run itself out. There is, of course, also a possibility that it won't. Will 95L dash against the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba? This too is very possible. Certainly the ridge is strong enough to hold 95L down. Might the ridge let up at the last minute? It very well might. In that case, 95L may recurve out to sea at the last moment. Many such storms have come near to coast only to harmlessly recurve out to sea.

[Ixolib]

Oops - make that twenty...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 350#987350

[SouthFloridawx]

do i hear 21?

[Ixolib]

do i hear 21?

[elysium]

Getting in a little late here, i've read the threads and threaded one, hopefully optimistic, and hit the NHC site and what are you people talking about? 95L is nothing short of awesome. It's in prestine developmental status. This is nothing short of the beginning development of a huge hurricane here people. I have been saying along with the crowd here that this storm can go poof, but to tell you the truth i was just being friendly and saying what everyone else was basically saying. Now i'm looking real close. At he risk of losing a few friends around here, this one here is no joke people. This is nothing short of a monster hurricane in the making on a disasterous path.

You may not like me anymore, but I'm telling it like it is. This is extremely dangerous. That? That is a cataclysmic looking situation out there and not a joke. And I'm going to lose even more friends here, because I read all the posted threads and am totally amazed at the extremely high level of knowledge around here about tropical cyclones. You all make me look like a dope. But come on here a little people. Anyone that doesn't understand the seriousness of this situation can't possibly be looking at the same chit I'm looking at. This is a developing monster hurricane that is not going to recurve. I cannot believe how lightly this 95L storm is being taken. 95L is absolutely nothing less than the most perfectly cohesive and structurally magnificent tropical cyclone specimen that one can ever envision at this stage of development. And have you all researched the various models indicating the position of the ridge?

You all are very knowledgable except when something so self evident is staring you in the face. A major hurricane heading straight for northern Cuba/ Florida Straits is in the making. But really, you all should be telling me this. You all know a lot more than I. Flame away but I'm posting this. 95L is nothing short of awesome.

[Ixolib]

Getting in a little late here, i've read the threads and threaded one, hopefully optimistic, and hit the NHC site and what are you people talking about? 95L is nothing short of awesome. It's in prestine developmental status. This is nothing short of the beginning development of a huge hurricane here people. I have been saying along with the crowd here that this storm can go poof, but to tell you the truth i was just being friendly and saying what everyone else was basically saying. Now i'm looking real close. At he risk of losing a few friends around here, this one here is no joke people. This is nothing short of a monster hurricane in the making on a disasterous path.

You may not like me anymore, but I'm telling it like it is. This is extremely dangerous. That? That is a cataclysmic looking situation out there and not a joke. And I'm going to lose even more friends here, because I read all the posted threads and am totally amazed at the extremely high level of knowledge around here about tropical cyclones. You all make me look like a dope. But come on here a little people. Anyone that doesn't understand the seriousness of this situation can't possibly be looking at the same chit I'm looking at. This is a developing monster hurricane that is not going to recurve. I cannot believe how lightly this 95L storm is being taken. 95L is absolutely nothing less than the most perfectly cohesive and structurally magnificent tropical cyclone specimen that one can ever envision at this stage of development. And have you all researched the various models indicating the position of the ridge?

You all are very knowledgable except when something so self evident is staring you in the face. A major hurricane heading straight for northern Cuba/ Florida Straits is in the making. But really, you all should be telling me this. You all know a lot more than I. Flame away but I'm posting this. 95L is nothing short of awesome.

Well, I give 'ya one thing - you're certainly persistent in your viewpoint!!
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=982424#982424

[elysium]

The wave out of which was born 95L, had two areas of possible development; the rotation now about 500 miles east of the southern windwards now headed west and 95L itself. My guess is that the lower area of rotation will incorporate into 95L. It is actually now just that, a banding feature of 95L with separate rotation

95L will not recurve. This time tomorrow it will have been Irene for a few hours already. That's not too difficult to forecast. The future track is a little more tricky, but, once you realize that the sub-tropical ridge will not be dislodged but will instead be reinforced from the west, it's just a matter of how far north 95L will be able to get before all further northward movement is blocked in the vicinity of oh 20N or so and 70 to 75W. It will then turn more to the west and head in that general westward heading for some time.

As far as non-development, forget it. As i said earlier, 95L is out of the gate. It is a well organized, robust system that is just now beginning to develop meaningfully. These don't quit. As I said, 95L is totally awesome. Little surprised that quite a few threads have not seen it this way, but actually 95L didn't start to come on strong until well past midnight EDT and I'm sure that we will see the threads reflect 95L's robust organization later on today.

Bob Bob

[floridahurricaneguy]

What the heck are you talking about! I see a TD that can barely survive and might barely become irene. Am I just lost?

Matt

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at satellite it appears to have developed a very well defined LLC. In which case most depressions can only dream of. The moisture is trying to wrap around to the southeast to northeastern quads. In convection is forming closer to the center. It is very well defined in much better defined then many a weak tropcial storm. I say if it can wrap more moisture into the LLC over the next 24 hours. Then tihngs could get interesting.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Oh my oh my. Anyone looked at IR of TD 9 recently. Convection is blowing up compared to earlier and looks to be getting more organized. Wait is it just me or does it seem to be happening. See the best part of weather is it can be so unpredictable. I love it!

Matt

[elysium]

They don't get much better than this Mat. Later on today you will see what I mean. 95L is under some very harsh conditions right now, but that's soon to end. The high to 95L's north is filling in pretty rapidly. There will be some future movement north of due west due to weakness as such in the ridge at around 50W or so, but after that, the remnant SAL evacuates as does the sheer.

What is shaping up is a large tropical storm or large minimal hurricane, positioned north of Puerto Rico, under a building ridge. That's all. If we extend it out a few days further, we have something developing that is way serious.

These are the ones that you need to follow closely now rather than later. And take seriously now. What you said, that all you see now is not all that much, is why i posted what i did. In the past 6 hours 95L has made some very dangerous changes that aren't all that subtle.

[beachbum_al]

I really should be asleep right now. I am addicted.

So is 21 the magic number? Well lets see if we will make it.

Now on the serious side of things...TD #10...Of course I am no expert on these things. I know there are people here who are alot more experienced than I but nothing would surprise me about this year. I would not be surprise if it develop or didn't. It is a wait and see game.

As for where it is going. I have learned in my years of living along the Gulf Coast you never know where they are going. They can change just within hours of coming to shore.

[floridahurricaneguy]

They don't get much better than this Mat. Later on today you will see what I mean. 95L is under some very harsh conditions right now, but that's soon to end. The high to 95L's north is filling in pretty rapidly. There will be some future movement north of due west due to weakness as such in the ridge at around 50W or so, but after that, the remnant SAL evacuates as does the sheer.

What is shaping up is a large tropical storm or large minimal hurricane, positioned north of Puerto Rico, under a building ridge. That's all. If we extend it out a few days further, we have something developing that is way serious.

These are the ones that you need to follow closely now rather than later. And take seriously now. What you said, that all you see now is not all that much, is why i posted what i did. In the past 6 hours 95L has made some very dangerous changes that aren't all that subtle.

Good info. Could florida possibly be under the gun?

Matt or even west coast florida

[floridahurricaneguy]

I really should be asleep right now. I am addicted.

So is 21 the magic number? Well lets see if we will make it.

Now on the serious side of things...TD #10...Of course I am no expert on these things. I know there are people here who are alot more experienced than I but nothing would surprise me about this year. I would not be surprise if it develop or didn't. It is a wait and see game.

As for where it is going. I have learned in my years of living along the Gulf Coast you never know where they are going. They can change just within hours of coming to shore.

Join the club. I should be sleep but I am not. I cant peel my eyes away. Only 2 hours until I see space shuttle go over me! Yay! might as well stay up.

Matt

[beachbum_al]

I really should be asleep right now. I am addicted.

So is 21 the magic number? Well lets see if we will make it.

Now on the serious side of things...TD #10...Of course I am no expert on these things. I know there are people here who are alot more experienced than I but nothing would surprise me about this year. I would not be surprise if it develop or didn't. It is a wait and see game.

As for where it is going. I have learned in my years of living along the Gulf Coast you never know where they are going. They can change just within hours of coming to shore.

Join the club. I should be sleep but I am not. I cant peel my eyes away. Only 2 hours until I see space shuttle go over me! Yay! might as well stay up.

Matt

I am afraid if I go to sleep that I will miss it. So I figure if I stay on this board and read about tropical depression #9 that maybe I will not fall asleep.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Good plan... same as mine. Maybe if we stare at the screen long enough and refresh it could turn into Irene and we would be first to see it. haha:lol:

Matt

[beachbum_al]

That would be cool. When will Irene show herself? Could it be 4am/5am? Lets see.

[beachbum_al]

Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 060826
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005

...DEPRESSION BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1405 MILES...2265 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 41.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

New update looks better from the NHC #9

[beachbum_al]

I don't think we will see Irene today but maybe tomorrow some time.

[elysium]

Right now it's too early to tell whether Florida will be under the gun. The Florida Straits, though, could be a possibility, as could the northern coast of Cuba. What is important to remember is that 95L isn't going away. Even if 95L were to weaken, it would still hold together enough to reintensify once it enters into more a more conducive environment. These type of large systems that gain the type of symmetrical integrity that 95L has incurred these past few hours, even if not a fully developed system as yet, they nevertheless are able to extract enough oceanic nutrients and have the cyclonic wherewithal to get past harsh SAL conditions and even moderate sheer.

I'm through forecasting that this system will run itself out. This obviously isn't going to happen. We now need look further on than that to a time when 95L will be positioned under the ridge and just north of Puerto Rico. While it is impossible to accurately forecast beyond that time frame now, the conditions will be such that many will then be attempting to do so due to the increasingly dangerous situation that at that point in time will manifest in large part because of the likelihood that 95L's general westward heading will continue on for some time. My best estimate is that there will soon be a substantial shift to the left in all of the models. After that, in approximately 3 days, we should begin to see the models forecasting a more formidable storm than what many have heretofore had occasion or foresight to be able to see coming. If 95L runs itself out, so much the better.