TD#9

[JTD]

Guys, relax.

The NHC thinks this will recurve. It, therefore, will. They are always right on the mark.

Why do I say this, you say? Look at the 5 day NHC track and extrapolate (it's headed for Bermuda)

It would have to get pushed back west to be U.S.E.C. threat.

[TampaFl]

I just checked the 5:00 adv and it says its moving wnw.....nope I just looked and it looks to be moving due west, somebody needs new glasses.

[storms in NC]

Guys, relax.

The NHC thinks this will recurve. It, therefore, will. They are always right on the mark.

Why do I say this, you say? Look at the 5 day NHC track and extrapolate (it's headed for Bermuda)

It would have to get pushed back west to be U.S.E.C. threat.

If they are right all the time What happen Friday? sorry but no one is right all the time. These storms have a mine of their own. The NHC just does the best they can till they can send out a plane. It is just to far for them to do it now.

[dwg71]

yeah, ridge is building.....this did NOT interact directly...as far as path with that ULL...the northward repo was due to the center....also, this should continue to move around 270-280 with the Low Level Steering currents....not 300 like NHC says...

We must trust the NHC, they know what they are talking about. This is a fish it has always been a fish.

[mvtrucking]

I just checked the 5:00 adv and it says its moving wnw.....nope I just looked and it looks to be moving due west, somebody needs new glasses.

I have poor eyes but looks that way(almost west)

[gkrangers]

Theres nothing wrong with discussing other possibilities.

As of 5AM, Stewart discussed a more southerly track, bypassing the weakness. Its obvious the forecasters do have different opinions, and will voice those opinions in the discussions. If he does the 11PM or 5AM that are upcoming, I want to see if he still discusses the southern route, or goes solely with the recurve.

[JTD]

Went back and re-read that discussion from 5 a.m. I missed it. Very interesting. I find it hard to believe though that it will not gain a degree of latitude for 72 hours.

[gkrangers]

Went back and re-read that discussion from 5 a.m. I missed it. Very interesting. I find it hard to believe though that it will not gain a degree of latitude for 72 hours.

It'll pass 20N within a few hours, but the recurve track isn't a slamdunk yet.

[storms in NC]

Well Uall I am gone fishing be back Sunday night. But I will be keeing up with it. Have Fun posting

[deltadog03]

here is something interesting....look at the low level winds....since this storm is shallow right now..those will be the dominant steering current winds....

12z

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8v4km.html

17z

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8v4km.html

[clfenwi]

Keep in mind that the NHC never gives instantaneous motion estimates, they are always smoothed over a span of hours. As such, you wouldn't see a heading of 270 for a storm that had been moving due west for only a couple of hours.

Now, as Derek has pointed out, the way they went about determining a heading of 300 probably isn't the best way of doing things. The more valid average heading is more like 280-290.

As always with this sort of thing we need to see a few more hours of this to call it a westerly movement. Some (but not all) of the imagery I look at makes me think that there is a reorganzing/tightening of the center is going on and that's what is creating the appearance of a 270 heading. Time will tell.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When or if that shear drops this system is going go. The convections fastly devleping closer to the LLC.

That system to to southwest has a LLC.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[deltadog03]

well, regardless how they figured that 18hour smooothed track...this puppy is headed almost due west right now...and has been for at least a couple of hours...im not buying the NW movement...the LLC just simply developed further north...imo..folks...

[Ivanhater]

its moving DUE west, who knows if this will continue

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this system is trying hard. It must have 30 to 40 knot shear over it. Its slowly getting oreganizd. That system to the southwest is looking pretty good to me. In has flared a few areas of convection.

[Frank P]

its moving DUE west, who knows if this will continue

On this IR sat presentation it sure looks to be moving due west at the moment and right now is perhaps the most dominant feature in the tropics, convection wise... the are to the SW that was sorta interesting early this am seems to be on the decline... as is the convection off the SE coast of GA

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

[Ivanhater]

its moving DUE west, who knows if this will continue

On this IR sat presentation it sure looks to be moving due west at the moment and right now is perhaps the most dominant feature in the tropics, convection wise... the are to the SW that was sorta interesting early this am seems to be on the decline... as is the convection off the SE coast of GA

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

ya, i think td9 is taking all the juice in her area, but she is definitely moving due west, the more west she moves the chances of recurvature are not going up

[Frank P]

yeah, but I also think staying weak will also influence her to go more westerly... right now she's the only game in town... but no telling what tomorrow will bring.... just another day in the tropics

[Ivanhater]

yeah, but I also think staying weak will also influence her to go more westerly... right now she's the only game in town... but no telling what tomorrow will bring.... just another day in the tropics

couldnt agree more

[Hyperstorm]

Looking at satellite imagery, it appears that the LLC is becoming very poorly defined during the past hour or so after it had become better defined during the afternoon due to the convective burst. This depression is really struggling for survival and I strongly doubt that the current LLC will survive the extremely hostile environment it's in and will be in for at least the next 2-3 days.