#600 Postby elysium » Mon Aug 08, 2005 11:09 pm
Irene has been moving W.S.W. for the past couple hours, and is heading into some very favorable waters for further intensification. The trough that is forecast to come off the east coast in approximately 48 hours has no chance of appreciably recurving Irene, and tomorrow we should see most of the models shift much further left than the westward shifts we have been seeing up to this time.
With Irene now destine to enter into hurricane alley and be positioned under a building ridge to her north, in the most conducive waters in the Atlantic for development, there can be little doubt that she will become a much more significant event than heretofore has been estimated, and more attention will be given to precise location of center and directional forward heading, as well as establishing pinpoint hour by hour center locations for the immediate preceeding hours. This should result in a more accurate assessment of not only where the storm has been, but also where the storm might be heading.
All interests in the southern Bahamas should monitor the developments concerning what will likely then be Hurricane Irene within the next 24 hrs. Irene is on a course that climatologically favors her remaining on the southerly track of hurricane alley just north of the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles. High pressure is forecast by all models to build in resolutely to Irene's north blocking any sharp recurvature to the north, and keeping her on a west to W.N.W. heading for the next 6 or 7 days, and perhaps longer. Furthermore, Irene may be poised to enter into a rapid intensification phase very soon, depending on how far she tracks W.S.W. over the next day or two. Irene is dangerously unpredictable and may fall apart and degenerate into an open wave, however, this is becoming less and less likely and the worst may be behind her. Recurvature is completely out of the question.
Without the necessary means to measure some of the nuances indigenous to Irene's current synoptical outlook, the research I have perfomed on the accumulated data pieced together so far has only permitted me to assess this developing situation at a level of precision that amounts to little more than on the spot guesswork of everything from Irene's future track to her intensity estimates. Much more data is needed to accurately assess the new developments that are arriving in now hour by hour. Safe to say that the threat Irene poses also increases at the same rate, as she heads into rich, tropically fertile oceanic waters, and improves her outflow with high pressure building overhead.
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