TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Derek Ortt]

no offense to those saying this clearly has a circ, but I'd really suggest that you look at all of the data before arguing with those who have and do this for a living.

There is no evidence that this has a closed circulation, NONE!!! If this continues to weaken overnight, best track will reflect this fact

still could come back in a few days, but this thing is now a wave

[shaggy]

i know you cant see a llc in the cold cloud tops of IR sats that was my point my eyes aren't good enough this late at night after working from 630am till 730pm to see the clouds that are the same color as the ocean so therefore i'll wait until morning.

[Frank P]

I think wxman57 is an excellent meteorologist... and I enjoy and learn from his posts immensely.... he is one of the best pros on this site in my opinion and his position that this is just an open wave has the solid data to back up that position... and I am for one are not going to argue with him because I don't have the access to the data he has, but more importantly he knows this stuff much better than me... However, the question begs to be ask....

Why does the NHC still classify it as a depression, if it really is a wave why don't they classify it accordingly? They certainly have done this in the past when applicable...

[Sanibel]

In my opinion from watching cyclones on satellite for many years the LLC was clearly evident in the visible loops at low elevation. These surface spiral bands are the little white lines curving into the center at the lowest level. We have been watching a bare version of it for several days.

A good eye would see right away that an open wave wouldn't have such good curvature and outflow to the NE quadrant. I'm not trying to start a fuss or site rules problem, but I am in serious disagreement with you that this was an open wave.

The Quickscat missed it because it is 30KTs and extremely shallow. If we could get a ship reading under the center convection right now you would see a clear west wind and good gusts in the LLC.

In this morning's NHC discussion they were questioning bringing it back up to tropical storm status again but decided not to. When does NHC upgrade open waves to TS?

[MiamiensisWx]

There is appears to still be a weak circulation (but no real center) based on looking at the infra-red current floater of Irene. No 40KT winds by looking at QUICKSCAT, though, so almost surely not a tropical storm yet.

[boca]

I agree on the tropical wave issue, but their still is cyclonic turning atleast at the mid levels.

[Ivanhater]

convection continuing to grow

[boca]

Is this thing still moving west because it looks like it jumped NW unless that's the convection dissapatting and refiring up again.

[CronkPSU]

without a closed circulation, almost impossible to tell what it is doing right now in those last two frames or so of the loops

[Sanibel]

Has there ever been a Dvorak 2 open wave?

[gkrangers]

Has there ever been a Dvorak 2 open wave?

The last Dvorak estimate was from 3-4 hours ago. The next one will likely be lower than 2...they may not even do another estimate until they can find a center again.

[fci]

This all explains why there has been no recon scheduled as all of us asked when the "hype machine" had this being a Hurricane soon.

The thing that gets me is the flipping from "better organized, maybe a TS soon" to where it is now...
Just proves there is no telling what these systems will do.
Which makes it a whole lot of fun, frustrating at times; to follow them

[Derek Ortt]

NHC is classifying this a a depression, probably due to continuity as they think it will redevelop. They did this for about 2 days with Lili in 2002 before pulling the plug

As for the Dvorak, I have seen many Dvoraks on open waves by fixing an MLC

And Sanbiel, QUIKSCAT only measures surface winds. IT CAN DETECT SHALLOW VORTICIES!! We've been saying the same thing over and over again today, but some are not listening at all

[Sanibel]

The storm will either:

Weaken tonight

Sputter at the same intensity

Or re-flare


I'm bettting on number 3 myself...

[Sanibel]

Sorry Derek but I won't betray my eyes. I respectfully disagree.


The 11pm lists this at 35mph. I've never heard of an open wave at 35mph...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The convection is refiring right now. I also see a broad center which is likely redeveloping a tighter center under that new convection.

[gkrangers]

Sorry Derek but I won't betray my eyes. I respectfully disagree.


The 11pm lists this at 35mph. I've never heard of an open wave at 35mph...

Like he said, the NHC is keeping continuity.

As much as I've rooted Irene on, theres no evidence of a circulation tonight, none whatsoever.

[Derek Ortt]

I know of many open waves that have had 45 m.p.h. sustained winds with 60 m.p.h. gusts. Common for the Windward Islands. Claudette had that... wide open at the surface

[ROCK]

ok, could someone answer my question please??? why do the models still want to start moving this think WNW like yesterday??? any thoughts...

I won't discourage you from trying to figure that out as you just might learn something in the process (as you might be in better touch with the data if you scour it trying to figure out what the models are seeing).

However, I will say that there is not much wrong with 'blackboxing' the problem, i.e. accepting that it exists without explanation and then continuing your work with that bias accounted for. You usually can't carry that kind of thinking too far into the future, but in the shorter terms it does help.

Maybe you should try dropping down to our level and explain in laymen terms exactly your line of thinking on the wnw turn as it relates to Delta's post. This way we can respond in a intelligent manner and maybe teach you a few things in this process. As far as "blackboxing" the problem (e.g. excepting something for what it is) I think most of us agree this is not an option for a possible storm that is 7-10 days out from a possible US landfall....IMHO...

[Ivanhater]

there is a circulation, mid or low, there still is a circulation....calling this a wave is a bit premature

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html