TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

convection continues to grow

[sma10]

and NHC is only keeping it as a TD FOR CONTINUITY


And no, I am not restricted to go only with NHC and will not just because they are US Gov't. This is one case where our gov't is dead wrong

no you dont have to go with them, but it is extremely important that the public does...so td it stays for now

So whats your argument? Thats the correct stance for the NHC to take. Once again..its called continuity.

Historically, the NHC HAS maintained systems as depressions for continuity sake, but they have always been UP FRONT about it in their discussions. I can recall many instances where the forecaster has been brutually honest and written such things like "the depression may very well be an open wave, but we will maintain for continuity sake until recon/morning visable satellite, etc" Nowhere in their discussions of Irene have they stated that yet. Perhaps that will come very soon.

Regardless--what are you so up in arms about? We either have a 30kt depression or a 30kt wave in the middle of the Atlantic. Everything will sort itself out in the next 12-24 hours. If it develops, then the tracking will continue; if it dissipates it will all go away.

[WeatherEmperor]

convection continues to grow

yeah its looking a liiiiiitle tiny bit better. perhaps a sign of organization?

<RICKY>

[fci]

and NHC is only keeping it as a TD FOR CONTINUITY


And no, I am not restricted to go only with NHC and will not just because they are US Gov't. This is one case where our gov't is dead wrong

no you dont have to go with them, but it is extremely important that the public does...so td it stays for now

So whats your argument? Thats the correct stance for the NHC to take. Once again..its called continuity.

my point is the same....we have professinals making remarks THIS IS A WAVE, when it is not officaly....

They are not providing an official public forecast. They have the luxury of analyzing the current situation and telling us what they see. They see no evidence of a circulation. Its also likely that the guys at NHC are thinking the same thing. HOWEVER, their obligation to the public prohibits them from just dropping the system. Hence, continuity...

And Derek does not forecast for the NHC and he has every right to call it as he sees it.
He did not agree with the NHC on Jeanne and he was DEAD RIGHT!
If you want him and everyone else to just echo the NHC then what is purpose of this board????

[Ivanhater]

convection continues to grow

yeah its looking a liiiiiitle tiny bit better. perhaps a sign of organization?

<RICKY>

it could very well fall apart again, but its on an up phase right now

[Wnghs2007]

Come on folks, no reason to argue, if you want to think it has an LLC its your right to, if you want to think its an open wave its your right to. Why dont you just go to sleep and wake up in the morning when there is a visible and then you can argue over whether there is a circulation.

Going to Bed see you tomorrow Morning at 7 AM. Goodnight

[WeatherEmperor]

convection continues to grow

yeah its looking a liiiiiitle tiny bit better. perhaps a sign of organization?

<RICKY>

it could very well fall apart again, but its on an up phase right now

yeah your right. go up go down who knows. Wanna stay up all night and check sat loops to see if its gonna organize?

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

convection continues to grow

yeah its looking a liiiiiitle tiny bit better. perhaps a sign of organization?

<RICKY>

it could very well fall apart again, but its on an up phase right now

yeah your right. go up go down who knows. Wanna stay up all night and check sat loops to see if its gonna organize?

<RICKY>

haaaaa, ill probably go to sleep in a couple of hours, but ill be up early in the morn , but i wont be surprised if its completely gone or stronger than ever, this storm is crazy!

[Anonymous]

a wave has no closed surface circulation at the surface. THIS HAS NO CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. ITS A WAVE... at least for right now

I'll go with the NHC on this one. Emily looked bad at one point, but was never an open wave...however this one should recover.

[clfenwi]

I concur with Derek...NHC continues to call Irene a depression for the same reason they kept the tropical storm designation past the time the data supported it: continuity. When you are in the position the NHC it takes massive overwhelming evidence to break continuity immediately. As I said in a post about the TS/TD classification, continuity is important because it keeps a ridiculous yo-yo situation where you have 'well now it's a TS ...(six hours later) oops a TD... (six hours later yet) hey, TS again!... and so on.

Reading in between the lines of the discussion this is the closest the NHC has come to saying Irene is dead or dying (outright saying 'if Irene survives' and calling the intensity forecast 'low confidence'). However, they will give Irene a chance to prove that she's still a depression. Less harmful than calling her dead prematurely. NHC wants nails in the coffin as it were.

[WeatherEmperor]

Weird thing is even if I try to sleep, my body automatically wakes up due to my inner subconscious awareness of Irene being out there and to check on the models. I should take 5 sleeping pills to knock me out for a looong time.

<RICKY>

[Stratosphere747]

Irene will become a hurricane in my opinion in about 3-5 days and will hit the SE coast...just give it time....everybody will be talking about it by the weekend.

.....

Can't say the "W" word...

[gatorcane]

I agree with Derek, there is no depression here. The NHC is calling it a depression simply because by reducing it to a wave they will be underscoring even further the fact that they really have no idea what this system is doing....as their models are calling for a TS and eventually a hurricane, a wave would not be consistent with their thinking.

[gkrangers]

Yep..and it wouldn't be the first "if irene survives" discussion either.

They'll issue a 5AM as a TD...and by 11AM they'll have had hours of visible to make a decision.

We'll just have to wait and see what she looks like when the sun comes up..

[Ivanhater]

Weird thing is even if I try to sleep, my body automatically wakes up due to my inner subconscious awareness of Irene being out there and to check on the models. I should take 5 sleeping pills to knock me out for a looong time.

<RICKY>

ya i know what you mean, i couldnt sleep during ivan or dennis, knowing it was coming, there was no way i could sleep

[Sanibel]

A good eye will see that the convection is in one curved center with one weak band heading to the north. There's a reason for that.

[gkrangers]

A good eye will see that the convection is in one curved center with one weak band heading to the north. There's a reason for that.

Stop with the "good eye" stuff. We aren't blind. But it doesn't mean there is a low level center, and that is the criteria for a tropical cyclone..not mid level turning, which it appears to atleast have still.

[CronkPSU]

derek is absolutely right, this is a wave right now

that being said, i have no problem with the NHC calling it a depression as there is a very decent chance that it will restrengthen in the near future and it makes it simpler to just keep calling it a depression

[SunnyThoughts]

Whether the NHC chooses to keep this as a TD or downgrade it to a TW in the next few hours...won't make a difference in the total scheme of things. IN a few days many believe this TD ( or remnants there of) will move into a more favorable area for development..or so I"ve been reading all day. If that does indeed occur...whatever is left will develop and THATS when we need everyone to pull together along with the NHC to help us (The general public) to understand what is happening and where this is headed...so please pleaseee work together on this, many of us depend on you guys for your insight when things get rough. Did that sound like a mom speach? geezee I gotta get away from my kids more

[clfenwi]

So... if anyone thinks the cloud mass has had some sort of northerly component in the past couple of hours... pipe up. Have stared and unstared at the loops for awhile, and even though the apparent sharpness of it may be an illusion, it does look like a 290° or so heading right now...