TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[superfly]

10/0545 UTC 23.2N 56.9W T1.5/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

I have to disagree with their positioning as I don't think the center is that far north or that far west.

[caribepr]

I know this is a forum for following tropical storms, but after reading the last endless pages...I am pretty convinced (and this is depressing, as I have been using the internet since before it was called the internet and am still thrilled with the reality and potential) that sometimes, in some cases, there is just too much information available to be deciphered.
I'm not saying the thing of "pros are always right, respect your betters and shut up" - I'm simply saying...This is like seeing a 5 year old steal bubble gum and declaring that he is a mini crime wave (no pun intended) headed for a life in prison for theft and murder. Now..he might be, given circumstances as his life goes along, but on the other hand..
When ONE instance of weather, which is a LONG way out, has people bouncing around like balls in a lottery box, GEEZE! Isn't there a way to have interest, learn, and not draw conclusions every freaking time a storm has a change? They do this ALL THE TIME!!!
I can understand fears of those who have been seriously impacted by storms to naturally NOT want that thing coming back to your lives (the opposite of -removed-? Fearcasting?)...but that's an issue to recognize and deal with in your personal lives, not extropolate it into a forecast of the second/half minute/dare I say it, even day until a more appropriate time, which in this case is quite literally, for you east coasters, close to a week away?? Be prepared, watch, learn, enjoy, but calm down before you have a heart attack from something that isn't a threat to you at present.

[elysium]

Can anyone get confirmation of increase in forward speed?

[mvtrucking]

Can anyone get confirmation of increase in forward speed?

Great post on the previous page Elysium.Interesting.

[Coredesat]

Latest discussion is quite interesting. The NHC is having a lot of trouble finding a center, and are simply awaiting more visible imagery before deciding whether to declare it dissipated outright.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What can I say Irene is the weakest storm of the whole hurricane season. At least Gert was getting stronger at landfall. In if it had time it would of been a hurricane. Maybe even Bret the same. This storm is far weaker then anything so far this season. This storm may still have a center but it may not. This storm is crazy...

[elysium]

Irene is in fine shape this hour. It appears to have stalled. There are also some problems cropping up now with ridge strength.

Irene is fine. The dang ridge is going screwy.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

For one there is still inflow moving into the southeast side. With a broad spin over the northwestern/northern side. But still its hard to call this a tropical depressoin.

[elysium]

The ridge is falling apart. This storm will never amount to anything. I don't know what happened, but the western periphery just collapsed. Irene stalled because she has to wait for the ridge to build in from the east. But the western ridge collapse pretty much kills off Irene. You can forget about this one.

It looks like the mid-atlantic will have a tropical storm near miss.

I never thought the ridge would fall apart like this.

[FlSteel]

Elysium, please post a graphic of that ridge collapsing. I'm obviously not seeing what you are seeing. Probably because I just don't understand what I'm looking at. Just an amateur here trying to learn.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think he means that the storm is falling apart.

[wxwatcher91]

I dunno if anyone noted this yet... so here ya go...

the 5am update now has all of coastal NC in the 5-10% chance of TS force winds at 120hrs (sry link doesnt work)... also the there is now a 5-10% chance of hurricane force winds showing up at 96hrs (sry link doesnt work)

[FlSteel]

Okay, guess I was just confused then. Irene is really not looking all that good, what is left of her. I have a feeling that if she develops it will be a few days down the road. Good thing for us here in the south east though. Just don't feel like having to ride out a cane coming in at St. Augustine. Frances and Jeane did enough damage up here and we were not even in the middle of it. Can't imagine what Jax would look like after a full fledge cane comes through here.

[Tertius]

I think he means that the storm is falling apart.

It would seem so but his reasoning baffles me, like an Amish guy at E3.

[FlSteel]

I think he means that the storm is falling apart.

It would seem so but his reasoning baffles me, like an Amish guy at E3.

now that is funny

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can't believe that this will now be this years Earl. The "I" storm none the less.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[wxwatcher91]

ah yes it was... but it gave us a name at least... man we are going to have like 10 of our named storms have max winds of 40mph this season lol

[elysium]

Irene is fine. It's the western side of the ridge. It's dropping out. Total collapse. Unbelievable.

Earlier it had been robust. Tore the ULL off the coast of Florida to ribbons. But now pressures are dropping through the roof all up and down the eastern seaboard, and that the end of any chance of getting a decent ridge going. It's also visable on vapor. You can see how the bottom fell out. The only part of the high that's left is way up north at like 35N and 70W. Irene is definately heading toward Bermuda and then the east coast as a minimal hurricane at the most. Actually, it looks more now like a weak tropical storm. This will not change either. We might see the high rebuild again in a week, but that's way too late for Irene. this one's gone.

Gee, the NHC saw the ridge collapse coming way in advance. I'd really like to know how they saw it. I didn't think they had the forecasting technology to see something like this happening. These ridges in August are 9 times out of 10 strong. Not this one. This ridge couldn't vent a warm bubble bath.

It looked good for a while, but you need everything in place for this type system. If one little thing goes wrong, it's over. There is never a second chance with these either. Irene will never be able to readjust back to the west again once she locates the weakness.

Waves should begin to roll off Africa real soon. We have to forget about this one and look ahead. The ridge should be positioned reasonably well in a week to 10 days, and once it positions, it should hold for a while. The sst's haven't even begun. This should still be a very busy season, perhaps a very long season too.

Irene is history.

[fci]

Irene is looking more and more like a tropical storm with each passing frame coming off the sats. Have been busy today and only had time to review Irene on the 6pm newscast. At that time she exhibited a minor flare up of convection, but didn't appear to be very well organized. This hour, she is rapidly getting it together. Once again we are beginning to see a burst of magenta near the center, with excellent circulation clearly evidencing spiral banding features and outflow. It simply doesn't get any better than this.

It is important to remember that Irene's intensity, which is at a bare bones minimum right now, is totally unimportant. There is an argument to be waged that Irene poses more of a potential threat in her current mode of slow early stage continous development followed by peeks and valleys in which she has consistantly and tenaciously always pulled through, in a trecherous environment for development, as she nears an exceptionally conducive environment for development. Irene is extremely well organized. Only an extremely well organized system could have weathered what Irene has been through. But her organization extends not only to over-all wherewithal through trying times, but also as pertains to satellite imagery. Irene looks spectacular on sat feed and has for days now, always reorganizing her center with the type of rotational integrity that tells us visually and through the perusal of her 56 page history that she is in this for the long haul.

It has all been uphill for Irene until now. An uphill battle that would have wiped out a lesser storm has now been surmounted. We don't care how strong she is now. We know that getting strong while being badly battered by the cantankerous forces of sheer is, by its very nature, a hideously fallacious concept. All that matters, now that only rich tropical fuel water with added hurricane nitro lay ahead is 'did she make it?'. To that, we can resoundingly and unequivocally answer 'why certainly she did'.

it is certain that Irene will develop robustly in her new environment. Irene has won the battle for development in the hearts and minds of every sensible forecaster. We don't want an intense system. What we want is a system with integrity moving into an enviroment conducive for rich growth and solid organization as we begin raising the intensity forecast upwards again and again once Irene begins deepening and her outflow matures. The only real issue to focus on right now is track and directional heading. For right now and for at least the next 10 days, Irene will be heading westward as she intensifys according to every credible forecast and all the dynamical models.

Irene is one potent, dynamical storm.

Elysium I LOVE reading your analysis and posts with the nice vocabulary and eloquent wording. I have to retake the SAT I Reasoning Test this fall and your posts are improving my speed and comprehension. Thanks!!

I did not even make it through the first sentence.
I see the author and just move on...

[wxwatcher91]

Irene is fine. It's the western side of the ridge. It's dropping out. Total collapse. Unbelievable.

Earlier it had been robust. Tore the ULL off the coast of Florida to ribbons. But now pressures are dropping through the roof all up and down the eastern seaboard, and that the end of any chance of getting a decent ridge going. It's also visable on vapor. You can see how the bottom fell out. The only part of the high that's left is way up north at like 35N and 70W. Irene is definately heading toward Bermuda and then the east coast as a minimal hurricane at the most. Actually, it looks more now like a weak tropical storm. This will not change either. We might see the high rebuild again in a week, but that's way too late for Irene. this one's gone.

Gee, the NHC saw the ridge collapse coming way in advance. I'd really like to know how they saw it. I didn't think they had the forecasting technology to see something like this happening. These ridges in August are 9 times out of 10 strong. Not this one. This ridge couldn't vent a warm bubble bath.

It looked good for a while, but you need everything in place for this type system. If one little thing goes wrong, it's over. There is never a second chance with these either. Irene will never be able to readjust back to the west again once she locates the weakness.

Waves should begin to roll off Africa real soon. We have to forget about this one and look ahead. The ridge should be positioned reasonably well in a week to 10 days, and once it positions, it should hold for a while. The sst's haven't even begun. This should still be a very busy season, perhaps a very long season too.

Irene is history.

yes now that Im looking at it I agree... it actually appears to be blowing up from the center out to the west on the IR loop. the west side of Irene is getting demolished...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html