TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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storm4u
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#1801 Postby storm4u » Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:59 pm

ivanhater wrote:you can see the eye like feature in the last frame

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html



it kind of does look like an eye but as of right now i dont think it is! They really should have brought recon in there today in my opinion! :roll:
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#1802 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:00 pm

ivanhater wrote:you can see the eye like feature in the last frame

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Yep you can see it better on the floater. The last frame at 17:15 it's gotten a little more covered by convection blowing up on the NE side.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1803 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:01 pm

ivanhater wrote:has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?

No, its still wnw
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#1804 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:02 pm

000
NOUS42 KNHC 111330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT THU 11 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-075

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1 TROPICAL STORM IRENE
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0109A IRENE B. NOAA9 0209A IRENE
C. 12/1300Z C. 12/1800Z
D. 27.0N 66.7W D. NA
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2030Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 13/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A IRENE
C. 13/0115Z
D. 27.9N 68.3W
E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 13/1800Z. ANOTHER G-IV FLIGHT.
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#1805 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:02 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
ivanhater wrote:has anyone noticed a westward bend in the last few frames?

No, its still wnw



i didnt say its moving west...i said a bend more toward the west
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#1806 Postby shortwave » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:03 pm

Almost seems like irene is embedded on the northern side of the ull that's to its south. The two are moving in tandem and it could be that the elongation of irene is partially due to that ull, as well as its current motion.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Havn't heard any opinions on this yet and wanted to know what everyone thinks.
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#1807 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:04 pm

SSD estimate

11/1745 UTC 25.4N 63.1W T3.0/3.0 IRENE

AFWA estimate

TPNT KGWC 111755
A. TROPICAL STORM IRENE (NINE)
B. 11/1731Z (62)
C. 25.2N/9
D. 62.0W/8
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS -11/1731Z-
G. IR/EIRVIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT AND MET
SUPPORT.

AODT: 3.7 (EMBDED CTR)
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#1808 Postby JTD » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:04 pm

So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?
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#1809 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:05 pm

jason0509 wrote:So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?


lol, you will get 6 different opinions from 5 different people with that loaded question
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#1810 Postby gkrangers » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:07 pm

AFWA seems bullish...leading the way with the highest intensity estimates.

Seems WNW to me.

No eye, but there could be some stronger banding on the northern and eastern sides of the center, imo.
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#1811 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:08 pm

ivanhater wrote:
jason0509 wrote:So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?


lol, you will get 6 different opinions from 5 different people with that loaded question


hey check out the new interesting UKMET.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
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#1812 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:08 pm

ivanhater wrote:
jason0509 wrote:So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?


lol, you will get 6 different opinions from 5 different people with that loaded question


There's no way of knowing with out a well defined center. You just have to watch and take six hour guestimates to get an idea of the heading. If I had to guess I would say 300. But that is probably because I called a fish and do not want to eat crow. I guess you could call it "fishcasting".
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#1813 Postby JTD » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:09 pm

ivanhater wrote:
jason0509 wrote:So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?


lol, you will get 6 different opinions from 5 different people with that loaded question


:lol: but please tell me, I'm on dial-up and don't want to load satelite loops.
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gkrangers

#1814 Postby gkrangers » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:11 pm

jason0509 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
jason0509 wrote:So what's the best guess motion right now? 285/290/295/300?


lol, you will get 6 different opinions from 5 different people with that loaded question


:lol: but please tell me, I'm on dial-up and don't want to load satelite loops.
290 is probably a fair estimate.
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#1815 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:14 pm

I say 290
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#1816 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:17 pm

ok, let me chime in!!!! there is a bend to towards the west in the loop...its V E R Y hard to get a fix on the LLC...period...oh yeah..guess who is coming to this party?? the RIDGE...look at the ULL is moving SW and the clouds with it are being shunted WESTWARD....
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#1817 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:17 pm

A ULL is punching right into it from the south. Irene is right on top of this ULL and is being kept down because of it.

Whether weak or not the trough is established and storms usually recurve in front of them...
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#1818 Postby JTD » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:19 pm

Thanks!! :D
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#1819 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:19 pm

the ULL is being shunted SW...and weakening...look at the WV...a tale tale sign of the ridge building in....
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#1820 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:19 pm

take a look at the visible and just tell me if you see a bend more toward the west..im not saying its moving west..but it seems to have stopped the 300

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html
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