TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[skufful]

Look at that. The trough got her. Irene is going to recurve after all.

That's relief, guess I can shut off the computer and wait for the next wave.

[Brent]

Look at that. The trough got her. Irene is going to recurve after all.

That's relief, guess I can shut off the computer and wait for the next wave.

[RU4REAL]

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 63.9W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

[Ivanhater]

you can look at the track and see it has bent back toward the west a bit

[jrod]

This storm unlike others is much more difficult to forecast 72+ hours out. The NHC 3 day cone is as far as we should look. Models have been trending N and E in the past 24 hours.

I think that is because Irene has finally started to gain lattitude. She may even going more NW than WNW now. But the models that turn her more west later on should not be discounted in my opinion.

At least it now appears the storm will not be a problem for me and it will not make landfall in Florida. I think the Outer Banks, NC will get it.

[JTD]

5 pm discussion is again FASCINATING AND FANTASTIC.

[Thunder44]

Look at that. The trough got her. Irene is going to recurve after all.

You're crazy.

[Ivanhater]

Look at that. The trough got her. Irene is going to recurve after all.

You're crazy.

seriously

[shaggy]

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODEL FORECAST
TRACKS OR THE MODELS' HANDLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE AND THE ALLEGED WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF
THE MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS
ERODE THE RIDGE AS A RESULT OF AMPLIFYING IRENE TO A SIZE NEARLY
THE SAME AS THAT OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
BERMUDA...WHICH RESULTS IN IRENE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD ALONG
70W LONGITUDE BY 72 HOURS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY...GIVEN
THE CURRENT SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR DATA.



will the ridge really weaken or will Irene pull a hugo(no in intensity but motion) and come barrelling into the SC/NC area and never recurve going to be interesting!

[deltadog03]

see, just read the 5pm disco....the models really have no real reason to push it out to sea....cuz, they think its gonna be bigger than the ridge??

[Ivanhater]

see, just read the 5pm disco....the models really have no real reason to push it out to sea....cuz, they think its gonna be bigger than the ridge??

seriously, what is that???

[txwatcher91]

Wow, Irene is looking better by the minute.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[sweetpea]

Look at that. The trough got her. Irene is going to recurve after all.

That's relief, guess I can shut off the computer and wait for the next wave.

[deltadog03]

see, just read the 5pm disco....the models really have no real reason to push it out to sea....cuz, they think its gonna be bigger than the ridge??

seriously, what is that???

that is bogus.....yeah there is 3 models that have shifted left....

[shaggy]

delta did you read what the discussion said.It says the models that run it N at 70W have no valid reason for weakening the ridge.Watch as the storm gradually turns westward and becomes another felix like track going to have to wait and see what actually happens.

[Anonymous]

delta did you read what the discussion said.It says the models that run it N at 70W have no valid reason for weakening the ridge.Watch as the storm gradually turns westward and becomes another felix like track going to have to wait and see what actually happens.

I'm concerned for SC/Southern NC

[Ivanhater]

im not liking the nhc having a hard time with this.....gives me a sick feeling....and im getting tired of people giving the "all clear" every time a model run comes out...thats how people get in trouble when they do get hit...happens time and time again.....if you live on the east coast, prepare...no one really knows where or how strong it will be

[HURAKAN]

Trajectory wise, could Irene pull a Gloria (85) or an Emily (93)?

[skufful]

delta did you read what the discussion said.It says the models that run it N at 70W have no valid reason for weakening the ridge.Watch as the storm gradually turns westward and becomes another felix like track going to have to wait and see what actually happens.

To become a Felix, I has to turn north first. (If I understand you correctly)

[BUD]

delta did you read what the discussion said.It says the models that run it N at 70W have no valid reason for weakening the ridge.Watch as the storm gradually turns westward and becomes another felix like track going to have to wait and see what actually happens.

I'm concerned for SC/Southern NC