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boca
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#2001 Postby boca » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:19 pm

It looks like its still moving at a good clip.
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#2002 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:20 pm

boca is determined to get to 1000 posts to become a cat1 hurricane. lol

<RICKY>
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#2003 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:21 pm

TPNT KGWC 120004
A. TROPICAL STORM IRENE (NINE)
B. 11/2331Z (62)
C. 26.8N/6
D. 63.2W/1
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS -11/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN STILL WRAPS AT .80 USING THE
LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT...MET
AGREES...BUT PT YIELDS A 3.0.

AODT: T4.2 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)

LAURENTI


3.0 T number.
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#2004 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:22 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
clfenwi wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:hahaha GFDL...so, when all the models shift back west...what is all of the people who shifted last time out to sea going to say??



That its a diriviteve of the GFS and so the model sucks.


You do realize that it beat the NHC's forecast in the 72, 96, and 120 hr periods during Charley? (1)

And the NHC's forecasts for all periods after 36 hours during Ivan? (2)

And was the top performer (for track forecasts) among models that NHC tracked in 2003? (3)

For a model that sucks, it does a darn good job.

(1) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004charley.shtml?
(2) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?
(3) http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc04/presentations ... jgross.ppt

NOTE: By no means an endorsement of the latest GFDL forecast.


You misread my post, I was saying that is what all the out to sea people are going to say about the model. Because they have the mentality that anything that comes off the GFS sucks.
And the GFDL is a direct model related to the GFS.

Thought I happen to agree with them in most cases that the GFS bites crap on wheels after 84 hours in the winter and most other times btw, I do not happen to agree with them now. LOL, Now Im consfusing myself. :lol:


:oops:

Well, I inadvertently fired the warning shot at anyone who would say that. Sorry it hit you :cry: [/i]
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#2005 Postby boca » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:24 pm

Nah I can wait, but its exciting.
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gkrangers

#2006 Postby gkrangers » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:24 pm

clfenwi wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
clfenwi wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:hahaha GFDL...so, when all the models shift back west...what is all of the people who shifted last time out to sea going to say??



That its a diriviteve of the GFS and so the model sucks.


You do realize that it beat the NHC's forecast in the 72, 96, and 120 hr periods during Charley? (1)

And the NHC's forecasts for all periods after 36 hours during Ivan? (2)

And was the top performer (for track forecasts) among models that NHC tracked in 2003? (3)

For a model that sucks, it does a darn good job.

(1) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004charley.shtml?
(2) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?
(3) http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc04/presentations ... jgross.ppt

NOTE: By no means an endorsement of the latest GFDL forecast.


You misread my post, I was saying that is what all the out to sea people are going to say about the model. Because they have the mentality that anything that comes off the GFS sucks.
And the GFDL is a direct model related to the GFS.

Thought I happen to agree with them in most cases that the GFS bites crap on wheels after 84 hours in the winter and most other times btw, I do not happen to agree with them now. LOL, Now Im consfusing myself. :lol:


:oops:

Well, I inadvertently fired the warning shot at anyone who would say that. Sorry it hit you :cry: [/i]
Well, I thought the same thing as you. I don't consider the GFDL to suck, even tho the GFS does.

11/2345 UTC 26.0N 64.2W T3.0/3.0 IRENE

AFWA is .8 further N and 1.0 further E.

All agencies are throwing darts right now. ;)
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#2007 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:25 pm

I'll keep saying it, its out to sea, a fish. Its heading NW now. 11PM NHC will have it even further east. GFDL is just one model on one run.
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#2008 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:27 pm

dwg71 wrote:I'll keep saying it, its out to sea, a fish. Its heading NW now. 11PM NHC will have it even further east. GFDL is just one model on one run.


I just looked still going WNW. Boy you must love crow
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#2009 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:28 pm

dwg what are you basing your prediction on and why?Give us something solid to back up your CLAIM please so we may understand why you think this???
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#2010 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:28 pm

dwg71 wrote:I'll keep saying it, its out to sea, a fish. Its heading NW now. 11PM NHC will have it even further east. GFDL is just one model on one run.


are you just saying this based on continuity ? :Pick:
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#2011 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:29 pm

dwg71 wrote:I'll keep saying it, its out to sea, a fish. Its heading NW now. 11PM NHC will have it even further east. GFDL is just one model on one run.



lol, your almost as crazy as elysium :lol:
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#2012 Postby clfenwi » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:29 pm

I take it now would be a bad time to quote the section of the Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting that talks about the forecast errors that can result from initial position errors.
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#2013 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:30 pm

ncdowneast wrote:dwg what are you basing your prediction on and why?Give us something solid to back up your CLAIM please so we may understand why you think this???


NHC track does not have it making landfall, most models have been trending right. I will eat crow if I must, but I dont see this making to the US.
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Anonymous

#2014 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:30 pm

dwg71 wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:dwg what are you basing your prediction on and why?Give us something solid to back up your CLAIM please so we may understand why you think this???


NHC track does not have it making landfall, most models have been trending right. I will eat crow if I must, but I dont see this making to the US.


Trending west again as of 00Z
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gkrangers

#2015 Postby gkrangers » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:31 pm

clfenwi wrote:I take it now would be a bad time to quote the section of the Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting that talks about the forecast errors that can result from initial position errors.
lol

Initial center positions are like..ya know...cant say it here...everyone has one and they all stink.
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#2016 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:31 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:dwg what are you basing your prediction on and why?Give us something solid to back up your CLAIM please so we may understand why you think this???


NHC track does not have it making landfall, most models have been trending right. I will eat crow if I must, but I dont see this making to the US.


Trending west again as of 00Z


One run is not a trend...
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#2017 Postby NorthGaWeather » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:32 pm

dwg71 wrote:I'll keep saying it, its out to sea, a fish. Its heading NW now. 11PM NHC will have it even further east. GFDL is just one model on one run.


What is your bases for this?
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#2018 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:32 pm

i'll give you that DWG no landfall prejected by NHC however they have hung the system in that general area now for almost 2 days.I think they are to unsure of a call right now and they clearly say in the 5pm Discussion that the globals weaken the ridge with no trough and that seems unlikely so we will have to wait and see what happens
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#2019 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:33 pm

dwg71 wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:dwg what are you basing your prediction on and why?Give us something solid to back up your CLAIM please so we may understand why you think this???


NHC track does not have it making landfall, most models have been trending right. I will eat crow if I must, but I dont see this making to the US.


Trending west again as of 00Z


One run is not a trend...


i believe you were quick to say fish when the models shifted north yesterday
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#2020 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:33 pm

hahahaha...dwg...you amaze me...you just can't understand that a tropical cyclone will not bust that ridge.....come on..you need to look at overall stuff not model runs...they always move
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