INVEST 96L

[cinlfla]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

CHECK IT OUT!!!!![/url]

[cycloneye]

Here we go again.A good MLC there and as wave moves more west more warmer waters will encounter.

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, it is definitely getting better organized with time. I can see now the beginnings of a broad area of circulation near the surface with a center somewhere in between 11-12N, 39-41W.

I'm impressed at the continued rate of organization even though its surrounded by the SAL. This probably means that its getting its concentrated energy from the high moisture levels of the ITCZ. Once it moves north of the ITCZ, it shouldn't develop as fast as it is developing currently, until it moves away from the SAL.

There will be problems regarding its development in the future, however. There is currently a trough that is descending from the backside of Irene. The leading edge is just north of 20N and moving south as Irene moves north. This is a very common pattern when tropical cyclones are moving NW around a Bermuda High.

There are two possibilities. First one, that it moves along its weakness and misses the islands. Second one, it continues moving W-WNW and encounters shearing problems as it moves over the islands.

I'm leaning more on the second probability because weak systems tend to continue W/WNW and become sheared when there's a trough nearby. That's not to say that once it moves away from the weakness, it keeps on heading toward the west and strengthens, but as of now, it does NOT look like a major threat towards the islands in terms of hurricane intensity.

Let's see how the different models pick up on this as it is now being called an invest...

[WindRunner]

This thing will get nowhere fast if it heads into the Caribbean.

[sma10]

Interesting....well we should get our first tidbit of information at 12z if the NHC does a model run.

[wxwatcher91]

This thing will get nowhere fast if it heads into the Caribbean.

but it WILL get far if it enter the Carib and then enters the GOM... invest will go boom in the GOM

[EDR1222]

Yes, here we go again. Will be interesting to see the first model runs on the system.

[SkeetoBite]

Models:

[Ola]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 121202
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050812 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050812 1200 050813 0000 050813 1200 050814 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 41.5W 11.2N 43.8W 11.7N 45.5W 12.4N 46.5W
BAMM 10.7N 41.5W 11.4N 43.4W 12.0N 44.9W 12.6N 45.9W
A98E 10.7N 41.5W 10.8N 44.1W 11.0N 46.8W 11.4N 49.1W
LBAR 10.7N 41.5W 11.1N 44.2W 12.2N 46.5W 13.6N 48.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050814 1200 050815 1200 050816 1200 050817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 47.4W 14.8N 49.0W 16.0N 50.9W 16.9N 53.4W
BAMM 13.2N 46.9W 13.7N 48.5W 13.8N 50.8W 13.5N 53.8W
A98E 12.0N 51.0W 13.6N 54.5W 15.1N 57.6W 17.2N 60.1W
LBAR 14.7N 49.5W 17.1N 50.6W 20.3N 52.3W 23.8N 55.5W
SHIP 52KTS 61KTS 67KTS 74KTS
DSHP 52KTS 61KTS 67KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 41.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 37.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 31.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Hyperstorm]

The SHIPS is strengthening the system fairly steadily and into a hurricane. So, accordingly, it follows the weakness to its north due to it being more vertically stacked.

I really can't see this developing as fast as it is developed by the SHIPS. We still don't see intense convection in the system and there is not a well-defined tight center. SAL is also there.

Until it consolidates, I won't put much into the models...

[sma10]

Huge disparity between the tropical models especially the BAMM and LBAR.

Obviously, anyone's guess at this point.

[Coredesat]

I agree. SHIPS is being way too bullish on this system. Given the dry air around it, I wouldn't expect a TD to form for a couple days unless the dry air retreats sooner.

[bvigal]

I've wondered about something concerning invests for a long time, and 96L this morning is a good example.

NHC 8am TWD mentions only "low amplitude low level signature", and no L drawn on 6z surface analysis, while NRL rates this "25kts-1009mb-107N-415W". Is this:

A. difference of opinion between NRL and NHC
B. time lag between 6z analysis and more recent posting by NRL
C. do they simply assign a 'best guess' value for each parameter (pressure, wind, location) whenever an invest is created?

Once a low pressure is mentioned by NHC, or even a named storm, the NRL numbers frequently disagree. But I've never heard an explanation.

[ThunderMate]

With those models i think we could have another east coaster.

[Anonymous]

With those models i think we could have another east coaster.

Way too early. Models seem to have been too far north this year...too far north with Emily...too far north with Gert....too far north with Irene so far.

[Hyperstorm]

I've wondered about something concerning invests for a long time, and 96L this morning is a good example.

NHC 8am TWD mentions only "low amplitude low level signature", and no L drawn on 6z surface analysis, while NRL rates this "25kts-1009mb-107N-415W". Is this:

A. difference of opinion between NRL and NHC
B. time lag between 6z analysis and more recent posting by NRL
C. do they simply assign a 'best guess' value for each parameter (pressure, wind, location) whenever an invest is created?

Once a low pressure is mentioned by NHC, or even a named storm, the NRL numbers frequently disagree. But I've never heard an explanation.

Are you asking us to decipher the NHC?

NRL receives instructions from the NHC, basically. Whatever you see posted on their website, is because there has been coordination with the NHC for that. They wouldn't have a disparity.

Regarding the differences in analysis, I would give them time. The system is just getting its act together, so they don't have a clue as to where is the center, etc. They just put a center for the models to forecast from there, but that doesn't mean the center is exactly there. It's just a point.

Once the system develops, it's another story...

[bvigal]

OK, so the answer is "C", what I've always concluded. It's just nice to get a confirmation on that. It makes sense that something would need to be assigned for the models.

Thank you!

[wxwatcher91]

wow 96L has a better circulation than Irene did for some time.

35 to 40kt winds in the QS...
...but not much to talk about convection-wise...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

my bet is that the NHC will wait until some more convection starts forming... probably a TD tomorrow afternoon

[gkrangers]

Don't be too quick to jump to TD status...tomorrow afternoon may be possible...but we all thought Irene would become a TD so quickly after it started to look good...yet it took several days.

This could spin up fast...or slowly organize.

Right now tho, it does seem like a good candidate, based on the scat.

[sma10]

No rush on this one. Besides, it looks like it's still more than 5 days away from the islands.