INVEST 96L

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears to have a LLC noted on visible/Quickscat. It is looking very good. In also its right in the middle of the wet Mjo.

I expect it to develop into Jose. He will keep our lead against 1995.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like inflow is becoming better defined over the southeast quad. With a stronger turning of the clouds. This system is getting better organized.

[Scorpion]

Looks good IMO. I don't know how anyone can call a fish for a system that is at 10 degrees north.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks good IMO. I don't know how anyone can call a fish for a system that is at 10 degrees north.

You are right. Perhaps this is because early model runs with the exception of the BAMM shows this going north. I know its early but hey dont kill me. Also if you take a close look at the water vapor loop of the eastern atlantic, you can see a big trof coming right down towards it which could take it more north.

<RICKY>

[wxwatcher91]

whoa sorry I'm just reading the 2pm discussion. first of all whoa to having 96L up under the "special features" heading and two, now we have TWO tropical waves in the east atlantic that both have lows associated with them.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The satellite shows a quickly organizing system. Center near 12/43.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[elysium]

It looks like 96L will make it over the northern Lesser Antilles and Leewards. The ridge weakness that will help pull 96L to that position should then fill in. That's not the problem.

The main problem is that if Irene gets hung up for a couple days before recurving, she will weaken the western periphery of the ridge by amplifying a short wave trough forecast to be off the eastern seaboard. This is no problem if Irene accelerates on recurvature. But if Irene takes her time it could lead to Jose recurving.

96L will get into position north of Puerto Rico; that's no problem. If Irene evacuates speedily, after 96L positions to the north of Puerto Rico, the ridge will build in resolutely and drive 96L W.N.W. for a long time. But if Irene hangs around, and hovers for a while, poor Jose is all i can say. He can forget it.

Even Jose is no match for Irene.

[WindRunner]

They probably could upgrade at 5, but I doubt they will because it is so far out. Any thoughts on upgrading times?

[jrod]

Both the MRF and the ECMWF hint that this could be on top of Florida in about a week. Of course it is WAY TOO FAR OUT to specualte but I do have some faith in those models, especially the ECMWF.

[elysium]

Should get the upgrade soon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say at this rate of organizion about 5am. But they will wait intill visible so 11am. It looking very good rate now.

[wxwatcher91]

Should get the upgrade soon.

are you talking about Irene to hurricane strength, or 96L to TD 10... or both lol

[dwg71]

96L appears to be gaing lattitude quickly, its getting near 14N already.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[WeatherEmperor]

96L appears to be gaing lattitude quickly, its getting near 14N already.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

yeah your right. could it already be moving WNW?

<RICKY>

[shaggy]

once again i think the northen leewards and then maybe PR then threaten the SE again but who knows what effects irene is going to have on the atmosphere.Most models show a sharp north movement but time will tell

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this thing develops further, my early prediction will be for this probably to be a fish, but it may threaten or hit the Leeward Islands as a strong tropical storm, maybe a C1 hurricane. It's too early to tell if it will hit Bermuda, but I don't see this hitting the US for now.

I predict 96L, if it develops, to at its most become a hurricane, but not be a very destructive one if it hits land. At its very strongest, maybe C2 (away from land most likely), but that might be pushing it.

Something to watch, we'll see what happens.

-Andrew92

[Normandy]

96L appears to be gaing lattitude quickly, its getting near 14N already.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Its not gaining lattitude as quickly as you think, as it was not exactly on 10 N ever. Earlier this morning it was somewhere around 13 N, so its likely moving wnw.


And, btw, remember you suggested this would effect the Leeward Islands, so you must not be sold on this trough picking it up?

[dwg71]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If this thing develops further, my early prediction will be for this probably to be a fish, but it may threaten or hit the Leeward Islands as a strong tropical storm, maybe a C1 hurricane. It's too early to tell if it will hit Bermuda, but I don't see this hitting the US for now.

I predict 96L, if it develops, to at its most become a hurricane, but not be a very destructive one if it hits land. At its very strongest, maybe C2 (away from land most likely), but that might be pushing it.

Something to watch, we'll see what happens.

-Andrew92

I concur and say not only is it not a GOMer, it will be another fish. I dont see it getting as far west as Irene will 70W.

[Normandy]

See Dwg17, that is why u shouldnt make early calls on stuff.....earlier u said Leeward, now you say fish. To much changes.

[Andrew92]

And one final note:

If it hits the Leeward Islands, 96L will NOT have been a fish. I will have been wrong on my prediction for the most part trackwise.

-Andrew92