TD#10=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- johngaltfla
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elysium wrote:T.D. 10 is now coming under the influence of the ridge to the north but there is also sheer from the trough in the vicinity. This won't be around very long, and no, there is nothing preventing further development. T.D 10 has actually gained convection the past hour and improved its outflow in spite of the remnant sheer. It won't likely be named, though, until tomorrow.
There is no way of knowing a whole lot more about where T.D. 10 might landfall. Remember that there is no ridge being forecasted to develop over S.E. Georgia/ N. Florida by any of the models I use. This is what I strongly suspect, however. The subtropical ridge east of 50W will still be the flimsy lackluster ridge we have become used to over the past couple weeks. That hasn't changed. And I don't think we will see anything generated in the east Atlantic after Jose that won't fish until at least September. The ridge is that bad on the east. The timing for Jose just happens to be a rare exception. Without the S. Georgia/ N. Florida ridge developing, Jose is total fish. If the western periphery wasn't building in so strongly this hour, information the models are not yet fully accounting for this hour, the southeastern ridge wouldn't be there on time for Jose anyway. And it would be hung up in the central states.
The ridge visable just now on WV building in powerfully over Bermuda will provide the initial westward drive, and do so more resolutely than is currently being forecast. Those models will shift left. Then the S.E. Georgia ridge drives it home. It just appears as though Florida has a better chance of being landfalled by Jose than does the rest of the eastern seaboard, however, since there is no way of determing how greatly the second trough will weaken the two bridging highs, there is much uncertainty. My best guess, however, is that the effect of this trough will be minimal to negligible. It appears as though a very strong ridge will set up over S.E. Georgia/ N. Florida, while the subtropical quickly fills back in.
Thank you for an insightful post.
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Sanibel wrote:Another tiny storm.
Local weatherman Tom Rector says he is surprised they even designated it TD since it is no bigger than a thunderstorm...
You see, it's this type of comment that makes me wonder whether the on-air weatherman is accredited or not.
The ball of convection currently associated with TD10 ranges from approx 14N to 17N (south to north) and from 43W to 46W (east to west). This is (give or take a few miles) 180 miles X 180 miles. Ever see a thunderstorm that big? To put it in persepective, that would be a thunderstorm that covers the entire southern peninsula of Florida ranging from Key Largo north to Vero Beach, including the entire west coast from Naples to Sarasota.
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Not to mention the outflow, microwave imagery, QS data...that support a cyclone. But hey, if he says its a thunderstorm, well, its a thunderstorm.sma10 wrote:Sanibel wrote:Another tiny storm.
Local weatherman Tom Rector says he is surprised they even designated it TD since it is no bigger than a thunderstorm...
You see, it's this type of comment that makes me wonder whether the on-air weatherman is accredited or not.
The ball of convection currently associated with TD10 ranges from approx 14N to 17N (south to north) and from 43W to 46W (east to west). This is (give or take a few miles) 180 miles X 180 miles. Ever see a thunderstorm that big? To put it in persepective, that would be a thunderstorm that covers the entire southern peninsula of Florida ranging from Key Largo north to Vero Beach, including the entire west coast from Naples to Sarasota.
Storm cancel!
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- wxmann_91
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sma10 wrote:Sanibel wrote:Another tiny storm.
Local weatherman Tom Rector says he is surprised they even designated it TD since it is no bigger than a thunderstorm...
You see, it's this type of comment that makes me wonder whether the on-air weatherman is accredited or not.
The ball of convection currently associated with TD10 ranges from approx 14N to 17N (south to north) and from 43W to 46W (east to west). This is (give or take a few miles) 180 miles X 180 miles. Ever see a thunderstorm that big? To put it in persepective, that would be a thunderstorm that covers the entire southern peninsula of Florida ranging from Key Largo north to Vero Beach, including the entire west coast from Naples to Sarasota.
Well, the anvil from a large supercell, a supercell complex, a large MCS or MCC, or a derecho could be just as big or even bigger than that, but obviously the weatherman is wrong, as nontropical entities don't usually spurt outflow. And there's a spiraling motion in the clouds if one looks carefully. And thunderstorms wouldn't continually develop over the same area without a circulation beneath.
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From Don Sutherland's recent post and he nailed Irene right on the head so he has a lot of credibility:
There is a moderate chance for U.S. landfall with the Florida to North Carolina coastline being at greatest risk. Such landfall is not assured, but it is far too soon to rule it out with any degree of confidence.
There is a moderate chance for U.S. landfall with the Florida to North Carolina coastline being at greatest risk. Such landfall is not assured, but it is far too soon to rule it out with any degree of confidence.
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wxmann_91 wrote:Well, the anvil from a large supercell, a supercell complex, a large MCS or MCC, or a derecho could be just as big or even bigger than that, but obviously the weatherman is wrong, as nontropical entities don't usually spurt outflow. And there's a spiraling motion in the clouds if one looks carefully. And thunderstorms wouldn't continually develop over the same area without a circulation beneath.
Not to beat a dead horse, but the examples you cite (MCS, derecho, etc....) are generally not thought of in terms of "a thunderstorm." But there's no cause for argument here because I think we pretty much are in agreement on this subject.
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050814 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050814 0600 050814 1800 050815 0600 050815 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 45.9W 15.0N 47.4W 16.2N 48.7W 17.2N 50.1W
BAMM 13.6N 45.9W 14.6N 47.3W 15.5N 48.6W 16.3N 49.9W
A98E 13.6N 45.9W 13.4N 46.6W 13.9N 48.0W 14.7N 49.7W
LBAR 13.6N 45.9W 14.4N 46.7W 15.7N 47.6W 17.2N 48.8W
SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 24KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 24KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050816 0600 050817 0600 050818 0600 050819 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 51.5W 19.6N 54.3W 21.3N 57.8W 23.6N 61.2W
BAMM 16.9N 51.2W 17.7N 53.8W 18.8N 57.6W 20.5N 62.0W
A98E 15.3N 51.6W 16.3N 55.7W 17.6N 59.7W 19.9N 64.2W
LBAR 18.5N 50.2W 21.3N 53.8W 24.7N 57.9W 28.4N 58.8W
SHIP 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS 60KTS
DSHP 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 45.9W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 44.8W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 43.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050814 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050814 0600 050814 1800 050815 0600 050815 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 45.9W 15.0N 47.4W 16.2N 48.7W 17.2N 50.1W
BAMM 13.6N 45.9W 14.6N 47.3W 15.5N 48.6W 16.3N 49.9W
A98E 13.6N 45.9W 13.4N 46.6W 13.9N 48.0W 14.7N 49.7W
LBAR 13.6N 45.9W 14.4N 46.7W 15.7N 47.6W 17.2N 48.8W
SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 24KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 24KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050816 0600 050817 0600 050818 0600 050819 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 51.5W 19.6N 54.3W 21.3N 57.8W 23.6N 61.2W
BAMM 16.9N 51.2W 17.7N 53.8W 18.8N 57.6W 20.5N 62.0W
A98E 15.3N 51.6W 16.3N 55.7W 17.6N 59.7W 19.9N 64.2W
LBAR 18.5N 50.2W 21.3N 53.8W 24.7N 57.9W 28.4N 58.8W
SHIP 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS 60KTS
DSHP 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 45.9W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 44.8W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 43.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- wxman57
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TD 10 does seem to have weakened to a wave this morning. The only thunderstorms are on the northern part of the wave axis. There's evidence of a boad dissipating low-level swirl to the southwest of those squalls.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose3.gif
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose3.gif
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I'd have to agree. I don't think it will last long enough to get out of the high shear environment it's currently in, seeing as the LLC is leaving the convection behind.
I wouldn't be surprised if the 11 AM advisory dissipates TD10 outright, with one of those "this system will be monitored for signs of regeneration" messages.
I wouldn't be surprised if the 11 AM advisory dissipates TD10 outright, with one of those "this system will be monitored for signs of regeneration" messages.
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The latest visible show s a LLC. Which is trying to redevelop convection over it. Which is beter then it was doing a few hours ago. Shear is trying to lower to the East and northeast..It doe's not appear to be a wave to me. We will see if this popcorn convection is a sign of the shear finally becooming more favable.
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- Lowpressure
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