TD#10=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#101 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 13, 2005 10:25 pm

Another tiny storm.

Local weatherman Tom Rector says he is surprised they even designated it TD since it is no bigger than a thunderstorm...
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#102 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Aug 13, 2005 10:27 pm

Last night it shown 40 knot flags on quickscat. Earlier this morning it was tightly wraped. You better believe it needed to be upgraded to be put into the books. I don't get this CR#%. In this system has a better enviroment to work with then Irene ever did by 48 hours if it survives.
0 likes   

Rainband

#103 Postby Rainband » Sat Aug 13, 2005 10:28 pm

Time will tell :wink:
0 likes   

gkrangers

#104 Postby gkrangers » Sat Aug 13, 2005 10:33 pm

Sanibel wrote:Another tiny storm.

Local weatherman Tom Rector says he is surprised they even designated it TD since it is no bigger than a thunderstorm...
See this is the kind of stuff I don't get...why would the "weatherman" say that?
0 likes   

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2069
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

#105 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Aug 13, 2005 10:59 pm

elysium wrote:T.D. 10 is now coming under the influence of the ridge to the north but there is also sheer from the trough in the vicinity. This won't be around very long, and no, there is nothing preventing further development. T.D 10 has actually gained convection the past hour and improved its outflow in spite of the remnant sheer. It won't likely be named, though, until tomorrow.

There is no way of knowing a whole lot more about where T.D. 10 might landfall. Remember that there is no ridge being forecasted to develop over S.E. Georgia/ N. Florida by any of the models I use. This is what I strongly suspect, however. The subtropical ridge east of 50W will still be the flimsy lackluster ridge we have become used to over the past couple weeks. That hasn't changed. And I don't think we will see anything generated in the east Atlantic after Jose that won't fish until at least September. The ridge is that bad on the east. The timing for Jose just happens to be a rare exception. Without the S. Georgia/ N. Florida ridge developing, Jose is total fish. If the western periphery wasn't building in so strongly this hour, information the models are not yet fully accounting for this hour, the southeastern ridge wouldn't be there on time for Jose anyway. And it would be hung up in the central states.

The ridge visable just now on WV building in powerfully over Bermuda will provide the initial westward drive, and do so more resolutely than is currently being forecast. Those models will shift left. Then the S.E. Georgia ridge drives it home. It just appears as though Florida has a better chance of being landfalled by Jose than does the rest of the eastern seaboard, however, since there is no way of determing how greatly the second trough will weaken the two bridging highs, there is much uncertainty. My best guess, however, is that the effect of this trough will be minimal to negligible. It appears as though a very strong ridge will set up over S.E. Georgia/ N. Florida, while the subtropical quickly fills back in.


Thank you for an insightful post.
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

#106 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 13, 2005 11:02 pm

Sanibel wrote:Another tiny storm.

Local weatherman Tom Rector says he is surprised they even designated it TD since it is no bigger than a thunderstorm...


You see, it's this type of comment that makes me wonder whether the on-air weatherman is accredited or not.

The ball of convection currently associated with TD10 ranges from approx 14N to 17N (south to north) and from 43W to 46W (east to west). This is (give or take a few miles) 180 miles X 180 miles. Ever see a thunderstorm that big? To put it in persepective, that would be a thunderstorm that covers the entire southern peninsula of Florida ranging from Key Largo north to Vero Beach, including the entire west coast from Naples to Sarasota.
0 likes   

gkrangers

#107 Postby gkrangers » Sat Aug 13, 2005 11:04 pm

sma10 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Another tiny storm.

Local weatherman Tom Rector says he is surprised they even designated it TD since it is no bigger than a thunderstorm...


You see, it's this type of comment that makes me wonder whether the on-air weatherman is accredited or not.

The ball of convection currently associated with TD10 ranges from approx 14N to 17N (south to north) and from 43W to 46W (east to west). This is (give or take a few miles) 180 miles X 180 miles. Ever see a thunderstorm that big? To put it in persepective, that would be a thunderstorm that covers the entire southern peninsula of Florida ranging from Key Largo north to Vero Beach, including the entire west coast from Naples to Sarasota.
Not to mention the outflow, microwave imagery, QS data...that support a cyclone. But hey, if he says its a thunderstorm, well, its a thunderstorm.

Storm cancel!
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#108 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Aug 13, 2005 11:06 pm

sma10 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Another tiny storm.

Local weatherman Tom Rector says he is surprised they even designated it TD since it is no bigger than a thunderstorm...


You see, it's this type of comment that makes me wonder whether the on-air weatherman is accredited or not.

The ball of convection currently associated with TD10 ranges from approx 14N to 17N (south to north) and from 43W to 46W (east to west). This is (give or take a few miles) 180 miles X 180 miles. Ever see a thunderstorm that big? To put it in persepective, that would be a thunderstorm that covers the entire southern peninsula of Florida ranging from Key Largo north to Vero Beach, including the entire west coast from Naples to Sarasota.


Well, the anvil from a large supercell, a supercell complex, a large MCS or MCC, or a derecho could be just as big or even bigger than that, but obviously the weatherman is wrong, as nontropical entities don't usually spurt outflow. And there's a spiraling motion in the clouds if one looks carefully. And thunderstorms wouldn't continually develop over the same area without a circulation beneath.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#109 Postby Ixolib » Sat Aug 13, 2005 11:08 pm

Well, Rector simply needs to consult the Shark Oil if he really wants to get a grip on his forecasts...
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38122
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#110 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 13, 2005 11:09 pm

gkrangers wrote:Storm cancel!


:roflmao:
0 likes   
#neversummer

JTD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1558
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2003 6:35 pm

#111 Postby JTD » Sat Aug 13, 2005 11:15 pm

From Don Sutherland's recent post and he nailed Irene right on the head so he has a lot of credibility:
There is a moderate chance for U.S. landfall with the Florida to North Carolina coastline being at greatest risk. Such landfall is not assured, but it is far too soon to rule it out with any degree of confidence.
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

#112 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 13, 2005 11:19 pm

Brent wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Storm cancel!


:roflmao:


Right quote; wrong board ;)
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

#113 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 13, 2005 11:24 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Well, the anvil from a large supercell, a supercell complex, a large MCS or MCC, or a derecho could be just as big or even bigger than that, but obviously the weatherman is wrong, as nontropical entities don't usually spurt outflow. And there's a spiraling motion in the clouds if one looks carefully. And thunderstorms wouldn't continually develop over the same area without a circulation beneath.


Not to beat a dead horse, but the examples you cite (MCS, derecho, etc....) are generally not thought of in terms of "a thunderstorm." But there's no cause for argument here because I think we pretty much are in agreement on this subject.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#114 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Aug 14, 2005 1:41 am

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050814 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050814 0600 050814 1800 050815 0600 050815 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 13.6N 45.9W 15.0N 47.4W 16.2N 48.7W 17.2N 50.1W

BAMM 13.6N 45.9W 14.6N 47.3W 15.5N 48.6W 16.3N 49.9W

A98E 13.6N 45.9W 13.4N 46.6W 13.9N 48.0W 14.7N 49.7W

LBAR 13.6N 45.9W 14.4N 46.7W 15.7N 47.6W 17.2N 48.8W

SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 24KTS 27KTS

DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 24KTS 27KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050816 0600 050817 0600 050818 0600 050819 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.1N 51.5W 19.6N 54.3W 21.3N 57.8W 23.6N 61.2W

BAMM 16.9N 51.2W 17.7N 53.8W 18.8N 57.6W 20.5N 62.0W

A98E 15.3N 51.6W 16.3N 55.7W 17.6N 59.7W 19.9N 64.2W

LBAR 18.5N 50.2W 21.3N 53.8W 24.7N 57.9W 28.4N 58.8W

SHIP 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS 60KTS

DSHP 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS 60KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 45.9W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 44.8W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 43.3W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
0 likes   

Coredesat

#115 Postby Coredesat » Sun Aug 14, 2005 2:51 am

Updated map to go along with those plots:

Image

Models have shifted a little to the southwest.
0 likes   

djtil
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 699
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2005 10:09 am

#116 Postby djtil » Sun Aug 14, 2005 4:09 am

hes dead jim.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23024
Age: 68
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#117 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 14, 2005 5:33 am

TD 10 does seem to have weakened to a wave this morning. The only thunderstorms are on the northern part of the wave axis. There's evidence of a boad dissipating low-level swirl to the southwest of those squalls.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose3.gif
0 likes   

Coredesat

#118 Postby Coredesat » Sun Aug 14, 2005 6:04 am

I'd have to agree. I don't think it will last long enough to get out of the high shear environment it's currently in, seeing as the LLC is leaving the convection behind.

I wouldn't be surprised if the 11 AM advisory dissipates TD10 outright, with one of those "this system will be monitored for signs of regeneration" messages.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#119 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Aug 14, 2005 6:31 am

The latest visible show s a LLC. Which is trying to redevelop convection over it. Which is beter then it was doing a few hours ago. Shear is trying to lower to the East and northeast..It doe's not appear to be a wave to me. We will see if this popcorn convection is a sign of the shear finally becooming more favable.
0 likes   

User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#120 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Aug 14, 2005 6:39 am

djtil wrote:hes dead jim.


Love me a Star Trek quote. I beleive you are right Scotty, dead.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 58 guests