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Need that system a little further north next weekend. And deeper, like yesterday.
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Jag95 wrote:The bad news is that the Euro also shifted the system on Sunday further south and is weaker, and it doesn't tap into the colder air over the Midwest like it did yesterday. The good news is that it shows 2-4 inches across the same area on Wednesday.![]()
Need that system a little further north next weekend. And deeper, like yesterday.
northjaxpro wrote:Jag95 wrote:The bad news is that the Euro also shifted the system on Sunday further south and is weaker, and it doesn't tap into the colder air over the Midwest like it did yesterday. The good news is that it shows 2-4 inches across the same area on Wednesday.![]()
Need that system a little further north next weekend. And deeper, like yesterday.
12Z EURO run late this morning had quite a strong 996 mb Low Pressure system near my area in Jacksonville, FL in 168 hours (12Z next Monday) fwiw, then moved it rapidly out to sea afterwards.
shannstone wrote:Do any of these show something more than rain for north metro Atlanta? I keep reading southern Mississippi, Alabama are scenarios so it sounds like it would be south Georgia if anything. Anything in the forseeable future? I need some hope.
Jag95 wrote:shannstone wrote:Do any of these show something more than rain for north metro Atlanta? I keep reading southern Mississippi, Alabama are scenarios so it sounds like it would be south Georgia if anything. Anything in the forseeable future? I need some hope.
Yeah, but it's still long range which is all over the map. The Canadian and Euro show from 1 to 5 inches in the Atlanta area next week.
Jag95 wrote:shannstone wrote:Do any of these show something more than rain for north metro Atlanta? I keep reading southern Mississippi, Alabama are scenarios so it sounds like it would be south Georgia if anything. Anything in the forseeable future? I need some hope.
Yeah, but it's still long range which is all over the map. The Canadian and Euro show from 1 to 5 inches in the Atlanta area next week.
harp wrote:I'm in south Louisiana, and I must say, as optimistic as I was a week ago, my optimism is gone. There is really nothing on the operational runs of the GFS that gives me any hope. I hate to say it, but my towel has been thrown in.
harp wrote:I'm in south Louisiana, and I must say, as optimistic as I was a week ago, my optimism is gone. There is really nothing on the operational runs of the GFS that gives me any hope. I hate to say it, but my towel has been thrown in.
Agua wrote:Welp, I'd penciled in a trip up to my old family homeplace in central Mississippi this weekend to see some measurable snow. The Jackson AFD had hinted that a substantial winter event was possible for several days. That's been removed now and any possible event is being pushed out until next week and in very conservative language. Oh well. Although there have been several unusual snow events over the last 10 years in Mississippi in December and early January, typically our window is from mid-January until mid Feb. Models don't look very promising going forward.
MississippiWx wrote:Agua wrote:Welp, I'd penciled in a trip up to my old family homeplace in central Mississippi this weekend to see some measurable snow. The Jackson AFD had hinted that a substantial winter event was possible for several days. That's been removed now and any possible event is being pushed out until next week and in very conservative language. Oh well. Although there have been several unusual snow events over the last 10 years in Mississippi in December and early January, typically our window is from mid-January until mid Feb. Models don't look very promising going forward.
I’m not sure why everyone is so down about it. The models do show continued cold. The cold air is always the most difficult thing to have around and it will be here for the next month. It may take until the polar vortex lobe weakens because when it sinks so far south, it can suppress everything. I believe we have yet to see our coldest period.
harp wrote:MississippiWx wrote:Agua wrote:Welp, I'd penciled in a trip up to my old family homeplace in central Mississippi this weekend to see some measurable snow. The Jackson AFD had hinted that a substantial winter event was possible for several days. That's been removed now and any possible event is being pushed out until next week and in very conservative language. Oh well. Although there have been several unusual snow events over the last 10 years in Mississippi in December and early January, typically our window is from mid-January until mid Feb. Models don't look very promising going forward.
I’m not sure why everyone is so down about it. The models do show continued cold. The cold air is always the most difficult thing to have around and it will be here for the next month. It may take until the polar vortex lobe weakens because when it sinks so far south, it can suppress everything. I believe we have yet to see our coldest period.
The GFS continues to show a warm up at the beginning of February, but I believe that was expected?
northjaxpro wrote:18Z GFS running now is showing another potential shortwave disturbance over the Western Gulf of Mexico in 162 hours. 1045 mb Arctic High dome centered over near Paducah, KY in 180 hours. The arctic air will be in place across the Deep South, and this potential disturbance definitely bears watching later this upcoming week! I will be curious to see the 00Z EURO run later tonight for sure.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png
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