Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/oK6I5SG.png
12z GFS ensembles, seems there are 2 camps with this disturbed weather:

Develop E of the islands and generally move towards GA, Bahamas. CONUS.

Stay a TW into W Caribbean and then into CA or stronger members towards Texas...

For the eastern solutions to verify, it would need to develop a core within... *checks watch*


12 hours.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z Euro Ensembles

[Deshaunrob17]

I've heard two C storms mentioned in the last few minutes. Cleo and Charley, shown below for reference.
CLEO 1964
https://i.imgur.com/Kw8sdgs.png

CHARLEY 2004
https://i.imgur.com/T31eOuM.png

For some reason I always thought Charlie was one of those traditional cruisers…. Looks like one of those system we’ve seen a lot of since 2016…

[skyline385]

12z GFS ensembles, seems there are 2 camps with this disturbed weather:

Develop E of the islands and generally move towards GA, Bahamas. CONUS.

Stay a TW into W Caribbean and then into CA or stronger members towards Texas...

The 2nd group also has several members hitting the panhandle similar to the operational run.


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[NDG]

A definite growing support for a Caribbean development by the Euro ensembles during the past couple of days.

[MHC Tracking]

I'm sure that the GFS is right THIS time. Go back to previous runs on Tropical Tidbits and search for any consistency. Almost certainly another modelcane. Besides, I cancelled hurricane season so I could get some rest.

Ah yes, the "modelcane" with a precursor that's already active that GFS develops at TAU 96, and has an NHC AOI. I too doubt the 12z GFS (for obvious reasons) but I feel like dismissing this as a "modelcane" may not age so well in the coming days.

[Yellow Evan]

Isn't this the same system the CMC and the GFS were developing and affecting the GOM, last week?

No, believe that AEW is crossing Central America rn.

[SFLcane]

Not sure what affect it will have but the EC also has a digging trof as the same time the gfs has. Could act to bring whatever is down there especially if its strong tc eventually north.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm sure that the GFS is right THIS time. Go back to previous runs on Tropical Tidbits and search for any consistency. Almost certainly another modelcane. Besides, I cancelled hurricane season so I could get some rest.

The origins of this system and the other phantoms are very different because the others were monsoon trough born, which the GFS is famous for overdoing in other basins, so this seems like a false comparison

[KWT]

Euro ensembles appear to ramp this up near Jamaica, albeit on a much more western approach. Very active, similar to 0z ensembles. Perhaps a bit more eastern based. Multiple hurricanes in the GOM on this run. Looks like we've got a player.

But what percentage of the 51 members actually show development?

I counted 18 runs out of 51 of the ensembles that have at least 1 closed isobar and obviously develops from this area. There are a few that actually form from a different area that are on the more easterly track that I've not counted. Some of these become quite strong storms as well.

That is up 4 members from the 00z which had 14 using the same metric.

[skyline385]

18Z ICON, GFS coming up




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[BobHarlem]

So far the 18z gfs is coming in notably weaker at 102 hours out.

[skyline385]

Yea weaker run so far but the system is still there

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[Hurricaneman]

So far the 18z gfs is coming in notably weaker at 102 hours out.

Seems to try to develop before the lesser Antilles but gets caught in the trades of the eastern Caribbean graveyard before developing farther west is my feeling looking at this

[aspen]

So far the 18z gfs is coming in notably weaker at 102 hours out.

Looks like some of the phantom Venezuelan vorticity gets caught in it around 120hrs out.

[skyline385]

So far the 18z gfs is coming in notably weaker at 102 hours out.

Seems to try to develop before the lesser Antilles but gets caught in the trades of the eastern Caribbean graveyard before developing farther west is my feeling looking at this

Looking at the vorticity plots, seems like the TCG was just slower this run

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[skyline385]

It is much further south this run and should avoid contact with Cuba though if it's able to consolidate

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[skyline385]

The centers seem to be way misaligned, looks like it's getting sheared?

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[gatorcane]

This is not the same GFS we are used to. One run it develops something into a hurricane, next run a weak low even in the short to medium range. Unless the EC and/or CMC show something similar you can toss the GFS model out. The Eastern Caribbean is a tough place for genesis to happen, it doesn’t take a model to show that.

[SoupBone]

This is not the same GFS we are used to. One run it develops something into a hurricane, next run a weak low even in the short to medium range. Unless the EC and/or CMC show something similar you can toss the GFS model out. The Eastern Caribbean is a tough place for genesis to happen, it doesn’t take a model to show that.

The absolute inconsistency of the GFS has been mentioned by a few people here.