Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:This week's update will show Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C, Nino 1+2 up slightly to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.1C, Nino 4 remains unchanged at +0.9C
Wildcard is the MJO now. GFS and CFS show enough amplitude over the IO which would trigger a large and strong trade burst and end the El Nino quickly. Euro guidance doesn't show much amplitude over the IO.
IO forcing isn't enough. One thing to note, we are losing the forcing of a traditional Nino (to the east) but there isn't La Nina forcing either, in fact highly against it. The Maritime Continent (Nina favorite) is strongly prohibited by the extensive cold anomalies. Trade burst there going on will continue that trend.
If not for what is happening in the MC, this would easily transition to a Nina like 2016 or 2017. However not the case here.