![Image](https://i.imgur.com/q5OR2XU.png)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/jvWqwVH.png)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
AlphaToOmega wrote:
Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.
Ntxw wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:
Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.
Yeah such a hard rise in April is usually reserved for entrenched Ninas or really big ones. Seasonal variability tends to favor -SOI in April.
Category5Kaiju wrote:Ntxw wrote:AlphaToOmega wrote:
Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.
Yeah such a hard rise in April is usually reserved for entrenched Ninas or really big ones. Seasonal variability tends to favor -SOI in April.
Honestly, I am extremely curious to see how this "entrenchment" of the La Nina will impact both EPAC and Atlantic hurricane seasons, particularly after the 2015 Super El Nino. This is the first time since 2011 or so that a La Nina never died during the spring.
AlphaToOmega wrote:
Here are some interesting statistics: Nino 1+2 SSTA is -1.859 C; Nino 3 SSTA is -0.983 C; Nino 3.4 SSTA is -0.832 C; Nino 4 SSTA is -0.697 C. The astonishing fact is that this is occurring on April 25, the heart of spring. Given that a La Nina pattern is expected, 2022-2023 is very likely going to be a La Nina winter.
dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.
JetFuel_SE wrote:dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.
Don't think that has ever happened?
dexterlabio wrote:JetFuel_SE wrote:dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.
Don't think that has ever happened?
Correct me if I'm wrong but somehow 1976 and 2001 are 4thyr La Niña events. They recorded more than 5 months of consecutive <-0.5C ONI.
Edit: I don't have time to recheck right now but there might be some inaccuracies in my recollection.2001 could have been a cold neutral instead of La Niña, also 1986 seems to be borderline weak La Niña/cold neutral so you may want to add that year as 4peat La Niña as well.
dexterlabio wrote:Looks like 2022 is now the strongest 3peat La Niña year on record. What I notice is that La Niña tends to overstay for another year when it gets stronger, unlike the past El Niños. Would be interesting to see this continue into a much more rare 4peat.
Foxfires wrote:dexterlabio wrote:JetFuel_SE wrote:Don't think that has ever happened?
Correct me if I'm wrong but somehow 1976 and 2001 are 4thyr La Niña events. They recorded more than 5 months of consecutive <-0.5C ONI.
Edit: I don't have time to recheck right now but there might be some inaccuracies in my recollection.2001 could have been a cold neutral instead of La Niña, also 1986 seems to be borderline weak La Niña/cold neutral so you may want to add that year as 4peat La Niña as well.
https://i.imgur.com/93ozd9Q.png
https://i.imgur.com/SRi5b8R.png
1976 & 2001 were both La Niña, although neither lasted the entire year.
cycloneye wrote:Wow, since 1999. Kingarabian , what do you think of the 1999 milestone?
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1521146963416080387
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:Wow, since 1999. Kingarabian , what do you think of the 1999 milestone?
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1521146963416080387
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
It's impressive and even more so when you look at the subsurface and lack of very cool anomalies (less than -5C ). Just shows how strong the trades have been. Makes you wonder how much lower Nino 3.4 can get because the subsurface will only get cooler below the Central and Eastern Pacific basins.
Category5Kaiju wrote:5-year La Nina, here we come!![]()
![]()
![]()
Users browsing this forum: afswo, alan1961, AnnularCane, Brent, cajungal, Emmett_Brown, Hurricane2022, MetroMike, skyline385, SteveM, tolakram, Tx_Summer, Wampadawg and 89 guests