ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.3C / Niño 3 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at =0.4C
La Niña keeps losing it's grip on this week's CPC update.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.3C / Niño 3 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at =0.4C
cycloneye wrote:La Niña keeps losing it's grip on this week's CPC update.
https://i.imgur.com/ZxkJWAo.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/inhNPdG.jpg
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
It's been too long, we need to get rid of the Curse of 2020 La Nina. We're long overdue for an El Nino.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.3C / Niño 3 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at +0.4C
I'm fairly confident that this La Nina is pretty much done. 2023 may or may not be the year an El Nino happens, we'll have to wait and see.
I will say that until we pass the SPB, I'm still going to have neutral conditions (especially warm neutral) as a potential option on the table; I think there's a bit of general bias in the wx community that tilts in favor of an "El Nino excitement," especially during a year like this that seems to be transitioning away from La Nina. Especially with years such as 2003, 2012, and 2017, all of which looked like they were surely headed toward El Nino...until they weren't. Hence, I'm containing my El Nino excitement for the next few months or so, however.
I will say that until we pass the SPB, I'm still going to have neutral conditions (especially warm neutral) as a potential option on the table; I think there's a bit of general bias in the wx community that tilts in favor of an "El Nino excitement," especially during a year like this that seems to be transitioning away from La Nina. Especially with years such as 2003, 2012, and 2017, all of which looked like they were surely headed toward El Nino...until they weren't. Hence, I'm containing my El Nino excitement for the next few months or so, however.
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC weekly update=Niño 3.4 up to -0.3C / Niño 3 at 0.0C / Niño 1+2 at +0.4C
^At least two consecutive WWBs before NHem summer is what will seal the deal IMO. I also remember 2017 not only has a lack of westerlies but also a nonexistent subsurface warmth. It's all just warmth at the surface that lingered for a few months. But I agree, the excitement for change from the wx community is real.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1630356179816685571
Yeah this is the issue with that free ECMWF graphic, its covering 15N to 15S compared to 5N to 5S.
Nevertheless, things are now looking better for El Nino this year compared to back in February.
Still need some key variables to flip and reinforcement of such conditions, but a lot of time left.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian , how are things looking in general as March is now here?
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- NotSparta
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Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:]Kingarabian [/color], how are things looking in general as March is now here?
Not Kingarabian but it doesn't look like El Niño is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory like last year. Trends in February are in favor of El Niño development rather than hindering it
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Re: ENSO Updates
NotSparta wrote:cycloneye wrote:]Kingarabian [/color], how are things looking in general as March is now here?
Not Kingarabian but it doesn't look like El Niño is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory like last year. Trends in February are in favor of El Niño development rather than hindering it
The question is will be here lagging affects from La Niña across the Atlantic. The CFS says there surely could be.
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Re: ENSO Updates
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
The southern hemisphere cyclone season has been very active with ACE above average. Is that a sign that ENSO will eventually warm?
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Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:The southern hemisphere cyclone season has been very active with ACE above average. Is that a sign that ENSO will eventually warm?
The SWIO usually favors La Nina years, but the SPAC has been more active lately. So maybe we're in a more neutral phase than the decaying La Nina?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian , how are things looking in general as March is now here?
It's still 50-50 between neutral (even a mild cool neutral) and El Nino. Reason why is because we don't know exactly what will happen in March and April and the SOI is still very positive. But a warm subsurface pool and relaxed trades so far helps a lot.
This MJO pulse is forecast to get strong but its mainly in phase 8 vs phase 6 and 7. So the WWB anomalies are not that impressive near the dateline. In the past 25 years, years that had El Nino had a much stronger phase 6 and 7 MJO from Jan to March compared to this year.
Also if the MJO does not enter the circle and goes back strong over the IO then El Nino odds become iffy again.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian , how are things looking in general as March is now here?
It's still 50-50 between neutral (even a mild cool neutral) and El Nino. Reason why is because we don't know exactly what will happen in March and April and the SOI is still very positive. But a warm subsurface pool and relaxed trades so far helps a lot.
This MJO pulse is forecast to get strong but its mainly in phase 8 vs phase 6 and 7. So the WWB anomalies are not that impressive near the dateline. In the past 25 years, years that had El Nino had a much stronger phase 6 and 7 MJO from Jan to March compared to this year.
Also if the MJO does not enter the circle and goes back strong over the IO then El Nino odds become iffy again.
Thank you for the answer. Let's see how things evolve in the next few weeks and months.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Looks like we'll get the big March WWB with the MJO in amplitude over 7/8/1 phases to help kick start El Nino.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
EPS 850mb zonal wind at 5N-5S has a strong DL trade burst by mid March.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Aside from the possible ENSO flip, I wonder if we're gonna see PDO flip as well. ENSO prediction can be very tricky but at least we are beginning to understand what factors make ENSO switch to negative or positive...however, we have little idea with PDO, we can only read if it's a positive or negative currently but there seems to be no way to predict if it's going to flip or stay the same after some time.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
dexterlabio wrote:Aside from the possible ENSO flip, I wonder if we're gonna see PDO flip as well. ENSO prediction can be very tricky but at least we are beginning to understand what factors make ENSO switch to negative or positive...however, we have little idea with PDO, we can only read if it's a positive or negative currently but there seems to be no way to predict if it's going to flip or stay the same after some time.
If El Nino is on the way it'll flip during the summer. But usually either the PDO or PMM signatures are much more positive preceding any El Nino.
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