Texas Fall 2023

[Stratton23]

The ensembles really havent moderated, a chilly- cold thanksgiving still looks likely for many, lets keep our expectations in check though, its only november, extreme cold was and is not expected to come out of this, the snow pack is still largely marginal in canada

[Brent]

Ensembles have moderated on the potential cold around Thanksgiving and have started to dry out as well. Hopefully, this isn't a winter long trend. I really thought we would start seeing some bowling balls coming out of the SW and really soaking the state by this point.

Yeah I don't really understand I mean December is in 2 weeks and we're still so dry

We can have all the cold we want but are gonna have moisture when it matters

[rwfromkansas]

The fact that stuff evaporates before hitting CA is a little concerning. I hope that it changes....

[Cpv17]

The fact that stuff evaporates before hitting CA is a little concerning. I hope that it changes....

We need something to dig down into the Baja. California systems often times do nothing for my part of Texas.

[Ntxw]

We're kind of in that deadzone for models medium-long range period where stuff gets shifted and lost. But not really, just the systems aren't what they were shown in long range. Still looks like a chilly TG week with a couple of cold shots, especially for November. One thing is looking pretty good, not looking like a warm holiday.

Whether we get rain, snow, or whatever at 500mb we're looking for strong vorticity to at least show it is capable of buckling the flow.

[Stratton23]

Besides looking at all the global models as well, none of them are even close to agreement at all with the 500 mb flow, GFS likes the arctic air making it all the way down into texas, Euro kind of as well, the CMC a bit more east, with significant disagreement, its very difficult to make a forecast right now

[bubba hotep]

The ensembles really havent moderated, a chilly- cold thanksgiving still looks likely for many, lets keep our expectations in check though, its only november, extreme cold was and is not expected to come out of this, the snow pack is still largely marginal in canada

I should have clarified that comment, moderated in the sense that they have narrowed the range of possibilities by dropping the extreme cold cluster. There is still a weak signal for winter wx across North Texas in the 26-28 time.

[Stratton23]

bubba hotep oh no your good, i get it, i am not surprised the extreme cold scenarios were dropped, hard to get that in november down here, however i am intrigued by the GFS, GEFS and some other members from other ensemble guidance which still hint at maybe a wintry precip like setup for parts of texas in the 10-12 day range, still worth watching

[Ntxw]

Until we actually see the AK blocking set up we're not likely to zone in on the 500mb flow, it's still quite chaotic.

[Stratton23]

Looks like the 12z Euro is seeing the secondary push of arctic air like what the GFS shows

[Brent]

Our TV met is hyping the pattern again hope it works better this time than the other times

[tajmahal]

Some ensemble mean temperature forecasts for Thanksgiving Day:

.GEFS......EPS
59–32...60–37...Amarillo
67–44...64–42...Austin Camp Mabry
73–60...71–49...Brownsville
28–15...38–29...Casper
63–43...64–41...Dallas
41–25...49–28...Denver
68–45...60–38...El Paso
68–52...64–43...Houston
53–36...56–36...Tulsa
B19–B22...B30–B36...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia
52–34...56–37...Woodward
16–10...09–03...Yellowknife, Yukon, Canada

[tajmahal]

The late November cold snap is looking more and more as an east–of–the–Missisippi event as the stretching of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) aims at eastern North America. All three major global forecast models are in agreement on this.

After that, no major disruption of the SPV is in sight – at least, through December.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

[Stratton23]

That is incorrect, the global models are not in agreement on where the cold air goes, GFS brings it straight down into texas all the way to mexico, Euro is a little more east, but texas still gets in on the action, CMC east but still a glancing blow for texas, i expect the whole state to have a chilly thanksgiving

I am looking at the 12z Ensemble guidance and they all say from texas- east bound will be below normal for a while
With the 18z GFS run coming in, it definitely has a far different opinion on the cold air and where it goes

[Brent]

The 18z GFS definitely isn't east of here below zero in Kansas

[Ntxw]

That is incorrect, the global models are not in agreement on where the cold air goes, GFS brings it straight down into texas all the way to mexico, Euro is a little more east, but texas still gets in on the action, CMC east but still a glancing blow for texas, i expect the whole state to have a chilly thanksgiving

I am looking at the 12z Ensemble guidance and they all say from texas- east bound will be below normal for a while
With the 18z GFS run coming in, it definitely has a far different opinion on the cold air and where it goes

It was the GFS suite that originally shifted east from its original long range. As I noted this morning, the 'bad' period for models is that medium-long range mode. GFS has been quietly shifting the anomalies westward again into the plains.

The PNA forecast has been too high (-PDO?) so it wouldn't make too much sense the +PNA will verify, closer to neutral. My bet is still a big HP hugging down the Great Plains.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx do you believe the models are overdoing the + PNA?

[Cpv17]

Often times at this range, the models will overdue the +PNA.

[Ntxw]

Ntwx do you believe the models are overdoing the + PNA?

Possible, I'm thinking weak positive closer to neutral. If there is a trough south of Aleutians instead of GOA it will be weaker.

[Brent]

Often times at this range, the models will overdue the +PNA.

Yeah I mean nothing is guaranteed but I'm pretty sure other cold snaps went east of us at some point only to shift back for verification. It always seems like there's a point like this where it doesn't look so good

Now it's always possible everyone is jinxing it and it won't be cold at all