Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#141 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:52 pm

Closeup of wave.

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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#142 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:55 pm

GFS ensemble mean showing very favorable upper-level conditions in the Gulf at 192 hours with a large anti-cyclone. A decent number of ensemble members continue to show development. Chances are definitely increasing we could get a names storm here. Big wild card is whether the EPAC storm develops which would somewhat hinder development due to outflow from that system.

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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#143 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:03 pm

18z GEFS.... pretty straight forward.

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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#144 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:19 pm

18Z NAVGEM, long-range to 222 hours:

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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#145 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:30 pm

Lol I love me some navy, that’s worse then the cmc, crazy how some of these models are so bad
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#146 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:08 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Lol I love me some navy, that’s worse then the cmc, crazy how some of these models are so bad

Well honestly that run's not too bad. A minimal hurricane hitting the gulf coast. The GFS and Legacy showed the same sort of solution a few runs ago, stop the needless model bashing
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#147 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:32 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Lol I love me some navy, that’s worse then the cmc, crazy how some of these models are so bad

Well honestly that run's not too bad. A minimal hurricane hitting the gulf coast. The GFS and Legacy showed the same sort of solution a few runs ago, stop the needless model bashing


Lol everyone knows how bad the navy is that’s just the way it is, it’s just funny how the navy is so bad then day 1 right before a system is about to hit it’s finally close to the good models lol
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Re: Tropical Wave East of Windward Islands

#148 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:00 pm



That area doesn’t need any rain. Send this to Texas as a minimal storm or wave please! We’ve only had about 1-2” of rain here since mid June.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#149 Postby catskillfire51 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:01 am

00z GFS and Legacy both show the storm again but interestingly the Pacific storm gets buried into Mexico and no development this time.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#150 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:50 am

No development from the Euro on this run, which continues to be the most likely scenario.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#151 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:03 am

Hammy wrote:No development from the Euro on this run, which continues to be the most likely scenario.


It does. Between hour 144 and 168.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#152 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:03 am

We will see Dorian or Erin by the end of the month
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#153 Postby catskillfire51 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:48 am

Hammy wrote:No development from the Euro on this run, which continues to be the most likely scenario.


It shows a wave again going into Corpus and seems to develop more over land.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#154 Postby plasticup » Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:22 am

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:We will see Dorian or Erin by the end of the month

I'll take that bet - this wave is DOA. Models support is fleeting at best, and the synoptic conditions are downright hostile.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#155 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:39 am

I'm waiting for it to be within range of the 3k NAM. Sub-800mb surface pressure this time, perhaps? ;-) Wouldn't mind a few days of rain here. Got almost 1/2 inch with the squall line last evening, most rain since June. Still not concerned about anything strong forming out of this.
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#156 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:59 am

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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#157 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:05 am

12z surface analysis puts wave axis at 46W.

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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#158 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:18 am

12z GFS tries to do something in Bay of Campeche but competing stuff in EPAC is not allowing it to go ahead.

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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#159 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:23 am

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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands

#160 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:30 am

Fist.

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