Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I will say when and if the ridge gets over Alaska, that's when it should get cold, otherwise it's a waiting game. Hopefully mid December or later
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Itryatgolf wrote:I will say when and if the ridge gets over Alaska, that's when it should get cold, otherwise it's a waiting game. Hopefully mid December or later
This is pretty much how I feel too. The EPS gives us some hope for this.
Waiting for the 12z EPS to finish its run before I look at it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cpv17 wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:I will say when and if the ridge gets over Alaska, that's when it should get cold, otherwise it's a waiting game. Hopefully mid December or later
This is pretty much how I feel too. The EPS gives us some hope for this.
Waiting for the 12z EPS to finish its run before I look at it.
I know it was trying increase heights over Alaska 12eps towards end of the run
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
From what I heard on American weather, the pacific is in such bad bad shape and would take a big -nao to overcome the pacific, but hopefully that happens sometime this month.
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- snowballzzz
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
A balmy 76° here in Weatherford today. Ready for some actual winter but doesn’t look too promising within the foreseeable future.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
18z GFS is an improvement compared to 12z
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
The mood here reminds me of last year. Not in the sense of the December warmth, but when the pattern shifted sometime in mid-late December that exemplified in Jan and Feb, it just took time after laying down the cards. It won't take that long here but the waiting game.
Meanwhile cold front is moving through the southern plains, chilly and windy weekend ahead.
Meanwhile cold front is moving through the southern plains, chilly and windy weekend ahead.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:That SE ridge is just STUBBORN!
Those in the southeast, closest to the gulf, is doomed. La Nina SE ridge dominance all winter. . All seriousness you folks along the gulf coast need +PNA. RNA won't work.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:The mood here reminds me of last year. Not in the sense of the December warmth, but when the pattern shifted sometime in mid-late December that exemplified in Jan and Feb, it just took time after laying down the cards. It won't take that long here but the waiting game.
Meanwhile cold front is moving through the southern plains, chilly and windy weekend ahead.
When do you think we’ll start seeing it on the operationals and ensembles? Honestly I thought we would already start seeing something by now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:harp wrote:That SE ridge is just STUBBORN!
Those in the southeast, closest to the gulf, is doomed. La Nina SE ridge dominance all winter. . All seriousness you folks along the gulf coast need +PNA. RNA won't work.
If the SE Ridge would be like this all spring and with storm systems coming in, I would be absolutely sweating bullets because I would have outbreak after outbreak of Supercells!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cpv17 wrote:Ntxw wrote:The mood here reminds me of last year. Not in the sense of the December warmth, but when the pattern shifted sometime in mid-late December that exemplified in Jan and Feb, it just took time after laying down the cards. It won't take that long here but the waiting game.
Meanwhile cold front is moving through the southern plains, chilly and windy weekend ahead.
When do you think we’ll start seeing it on the operationals and ensembles? Honestly I thought we would already start seeing something by now.
Depends on who's looking for what region. Oklahoma and NTX is probably eyeing the days before mid month. Need that NAO to deliver the storms. We don't need exceptional cold for snow. For the Arctic air, I'm in agreement with guys need to see a good -EPO which has been a pattern the past few months of being in the middle to third of the month (mid to late Oct/Nov..Dec?) That kind of cold may not come until ~15th or later. I think the CFS weeklies is a good blend of sensible weather.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Ntxw wrote:The mood here reminds me of last year. Not in the sense of the December warmth, but when the pattern shifted sometime in mid-late December that exemplified in Jan and Feb, it just took time after laying down the cards. It won't take that long here but the waiting game.
Meanwhile cold front is moving through the southern plains, chilly and windy weekend ahead.
When do you think we’ll start seeing it on the operationals and ensembles? Honestly I thought we would already start seeing something by now.
Depends on who's looking for what region. Oklahoma and NTX is probably eyeing the days before mid month. Need that NAO to deliver the storms. We don't need exceptional cold for snow. For the Arctic air, I'm in agreement with guys need to see a good -EPO which has been a pattern the past few months of being in the middle to third of the month (mid to late Oct/Nov..Dec?) That kind of cold may not come until ~15th or later. I think the CFS weeklies is a good blend of sensible weather.
https://i.imgur.com/acG4cKw.png
https://i.imgur.com/8J1g0xT.png
Yeah I'm still watching mid month here. GFS keeps trying to show a winter storm on and off and even the TV met mentioned earlier if the models are right precip type would be an issue
I would guess it would trickle down from there but again we don't want super extreme cold or it'll just be dry as a bone and nobody wants that
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
GFS gets worse and worse. Wake me up after the new year. Harp out…..
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- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:GFS gets worse and worse. Wake me up after the new year. Harp out…..
From the 12th to the 19th it’s average to below average, on the GFS.
But I digress, I follow people who can’t afford to be wrong (traders) who are largely discounting the GFS right now and are blending the Canadian and Euro.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:harp wrote:GFS gets worse and worse. Wake me up after the new year. Harp out…..
From the 12th to the 19th it’s average to below average, on the GFS.
But I digress, I follow people who can’t afford to be wrong (traders) who are largely discounting the GFS right now and are blending the Canadian and Euro.
Thank you for being a voice of reason. Some people I will just never understand.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
txwxwatcher wrote:ThunderSleetDreams wrote:harp wrote:GFS gets worse and worse. Wake me up after the new year. Harp out…..
From the 12th to the 19th it’s average to below average, on the GFS.
But I digress, I follow people who can’t afford to be wrong (traders) who are largely discounting the GFS right now and are blending the Canadian and Euro.
Thank you for being a voice of reason. Some people I will just never understand.
I mean your average person will live or die by the models. It’s fairly common. There’s even some mets (lazier ones) that have been known to do that. One model run could show Houston getting down to 15°F 300 hours out and an hour later you’ll see it being posted/talked about all over the internet. Yeah I get annoyed by that but at the same time I can understand where they’re coming from so I’m not going to talk down to them about it. Instead, educate them. Let them know models can’t be trusted that far out. You’d be surprised by how many people would actually believe one model run 300 hours out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
txwxwatcher wrote:ThunderSleetDreams wrote:harp wrote:GFS gets worse and worse. Wake me up after the new year. Harp out…..
From the 12th to the 19th it’s average to below average, on the GFS.
But I digress, I follow people who can’t afford to be wrong (traders) who are largely discounting the GFS right now and are blending the Canadian and Euro.
Thank you for being a voice of reason. Some people I will just never understand.
I don't really look at long range model runs aside from what snippets are posted here. While I enjoy a good conversation on weather I would drive myself nuts analyzing every run unless it's my job and I get paid to do it.
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Winter 2022-2023 could be like the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Delayed, but not Denied.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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