Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 97L)
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic
This becomes a compact mid-grade TS on the 18z GFS and misses the northernmost land masses of South America, but it starts weakening in the WCar as hinted by the ensemble members.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic
Nothing on the 8 PM TWO.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic
aspen wrote:This becomes a compact mid-grade TS on the 18z GFS and misses the northernmost land masses of South America, but it starts weakening in the WCar as hinted by the ensemble members.
I’m not sure why it would weaken in that area. Usually that’s where systems really get going.
Edit: Well nvm I just looked at it and it doesn’t really weaken it. It stays a ts through the Yucatán Peninsula and then goes into northern Mexico. Interesting.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic
cycloneye wrote:Nothing on the 8 PM TWO.
Most peculiar.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic
This might be one of those systems that NHC pulls the trigger on as an AOI right before it actually becomes something. I feel like they're being super conservative now
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
So strange how they refuse to acknowledge this wave despite it having similar or better model support than 95L.
The 18z HWRF run once again makes it a moderate TS that is really south, but survives into the Caribbean.
The 18z HWRF run once again makes it a moderate TS that is really south, but survives into the Caribbean.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Stormybajan
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
aspen wrote:So strange how they refuse to acknowledge this wave despite it having similar or better model support than 95L.
The 18z HWRF run once again makes it a moderate TS that is really south, but survives into the Caribbean.
This 100% has more model support than 95L ...im thinking the NHC believe this is just a ghost storm the models are showing
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AJC3
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W from 15N southward and
moving W at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N-10N between 20W-32W.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W from 15N southward and
moving W at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N-10N between 20W-32W.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
So what is the NHC waiting for to highlight this TW when it has the best support for development by the models over the next 5 days?
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
A little better support by the 18z Euro ensembles for development.
Also twice as much of its ensembles show development for this TW than for 95L.
Also twice as much of its ensembles show development for this TW than for 95L.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Sooo… the 0z gfs seems to have some thoughts on this system
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Stormybajan
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
cheezyWXguy wrote:Sooo… the 0z gfs seems to have some thoughts on this system
Nearly every model develops this wave behind 95L...and STILL not even a lemon when its supposed to move through the islands Friday-Saturday...if this isnt a lemon within the next hour then I just dont know man.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Stormybajan wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:Sooo… the 0z gfs seems to have some thoughts on this system
Nearly every model develops this wave behind 95L...and STILL not even a lemon when its supposed to move through the islands Friday-Saturday...if this isnt a lemon within the next hour then I just dont know man.
Agreed that the nhc needs to start talking about this in the two. Gefs members are starting to pick this up in as little as 24 hours
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
And still no mention in the 2 AM TWO.
Perhaps it'll be there in the next one.
Perhaps it'll be there in the next one.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
GFS still bullish with a depression in less than 48 hrs.
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AlphaToOmega
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
I think this has a good shot at development. It is expected to be more of a low-rider than Invest 95L, and that would help it in becoming a tropical cyclone. For instance, Tropical Storm Bret (2017), formed in the MDR at a very low latitude. I think that is the key for MDR development this early in the season.
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SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
xironman wrote:GFS still bullish with a depression in less than 48 hrs.
Has a hurricane moving into the Caribbean. Looks like quite a favorable upper pattern after the CCKW passage. Not sure I buy
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Sure maybe they wanted to hold off on an invest yesterday.. but looking at morning visible.... an Invest should be coming very soon.. lol
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AlphaToOmega
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands has become a little better organized since yesterday. Additional slow development of this system is possible during the next several days as it moves generally west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands has become a little better organized since yesterday. Additional slow development of this system is possible during the next several days as it moves generally west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
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