ATL: ALEX - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12z GFS is more organized than previous runs, 996 mbar just before landfall.
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
kevin wrote:12z GFS is more organized than previous runs, 996 mbar just before landfall.
https://i.imgur.com/hllXBcq.png
Is this the run from the new supercomputer test? I believe it is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
ScottNAtlanta wrote:kevin wrote:12z GFS is more organized than previous runs, 996 mbar just before landfall.
https://i.imgur.com/hllXBcq.png
Is this the run from the new supercomputer test? I believe it is.
Would that actually matter in terms of model output? I guess the calculations being made (data-assimilation as well as the physical model itself) should be the same? Of course, when a new version of a model is used, the output will be different (i.e. GFSv15 and GFSv16), but - as far as I know - not when another computer does the calculations.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
GFS trend
Euro trend
Who's catching up?
Euro trend
Who's catching up?
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M a r k
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Maybe the 12Z GFS actually caught this eastwards movement away from Yucatan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
18z GFS shows much more rapid organization with a closed 997 mbar low only 8 - 9 hours from now. By comparison, it took the 12z run ~30 hours for the storm to reach such a state. Goes to show just how uncertain the situation is. If this run verifies, tomorrow's first recon (which arrives at 18z) might find a TS.
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
18Z GFS seems to have initialized correctly looking at the current state of the system
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
18z GFS is a bit further east than 12z and clips the westernmost point of Cuba, which causes the storm to weaken a bit (from 997mb to 1002mb) and lose some of its structure. However, it strenghtens again afterwards and has a secondary peak of 998 mbar & 40 kt. Anything post-Cuba is very uncertain though due to the possibility of a Cuban landfall. Tbh even the stuff before interaction with Cuba is up in the air. If anything, it's already a very interesting system to track.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12z & 18z GFS now keeping a closed low on its approach to SFL. Now that we have a developing broad circulation and it appears to be setting up offshore, the next few model runs should confirm a sheared blob or maybe a more modest TS moving towards SFL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
kevin wrote:18z GFS is a bit further east than 12z and clips the westernmost point of Cuba, which causes the storm to weaken a bit (from 997mb to 1002mb) and lose some of its structure. However, it strenghtens again afterwards and has a secondary peak of 998 mbar & 40 kt. Anything post-Cuba is very uncertain though due to the possibility of a Cuban landfall. Tbh even the stuff before interaction with Cuba is up in the air. If anything, it's already a very interesting system to track.
https://imgur.com/KJvpWgY
I think the Western tip of Cuba is very flat and does little to disrupt a circulation.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Yes there is Adrian.
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
skyline385 wrote:That HWFI intensity guidance, 0Z HWRF gonna be interesting
60 mph TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
When will we get our first HWRF runs for 91L?
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- skyline385
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Ian2401 wrote:When will we get our first HWRF runs for 91L?
Should be tonight
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