ATL: LEE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Perhaps more suited for the discussions thread however for those who are non-meteorologists what is the LRC method?

https://www.wpbf.com/article/hurricane- ... a/43267699

[NotSparta]

Perhaps more suited for the discussions thread however for those who are non-meteorologists what is the LRC method?

Nothing you should pay any mind to. Psuedoscience borne out of humanity's tendency to see patterns in random noise

[SouthFLTropics]

Ridge on the 12z GFS so far looks to be stronger than 06z. Models appear to show this clearing the islands but I'm afraid the GFS may be underdoing the ridge like it typically does.

[tomatkins]

latest icon is further north of islands than before, some good news

It's actually a touch south than 06z.

It wouldnt take much of a change in track for that slowdown at the end to be pretty ruinous for the Turks and Caicos.

[crownweather]

https://i.imgur.com/Rtv3JkA.png
BLUE - TD#13
RED: UKMET 0z

NOBODY IN FLORIDA LIKES THIS!

Not that I put any stock into the LRC method of forecasting potential storm impacts, but the LRC method has predicted a potential impact time for the east coast of Florida between 9/8 and 9/13. The debate about whether the LRC method actually works and whether it is actually peer reviewed can go on for days. However, it should be noted that it did predict a Florida west coast to panhandle impact during the period of time from late August to early September, and that actually happened. For my sake as well as many others, I hope it is wrong.

Yeah, I was just thinking the same thing a little earlier this morning regarding the LRC forecast. I also have major problems with the methodology and the lack of any papers (doesn't even need to be peer reviewed, just something) on how exactly their forecasts are created, so that it can be reproduced.

[underthwx]

Ridge on the 12z GFS so far looks to be stronger than 06z. Models appear to show this clearing the islands but I'm afraid the GFS may be underdoing the ridge like it typically does.

Good morning!....Can you possibly post a graphic, illustrating this ridge?....Thankyou and have a great day!

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge on the 12z GFS so far looks to be stronger than 06z. Models appear to show this clearing the islands but I'm afraid the GFS may be underdoing the ridge like it typically does.

Good morning!....Can you possibly post a graphic, illustrating this ridge?....Thankyou and have a great day!

[underthwx]

Ridge on the 12z GFS so far looks to be stronger than 06z. Models appear to show this clearing the islands but I'm afraid the GFS may be underdoing the ridge like it typically does.

Good morning!....Can you possibly post a graphic, illustrating this ridge?....Thankyou and have a great day!

https://i.imgur.com/Dcgi3si.gif

Thankyou Auto for posting this, much appreciated...

[chris_fit]

So I think the 12Z UKMET is out....

Similar to the previous, but if I'm reading this correctly big jump north on the 2nd to last forecast point... and then a huge bend back W at the last forecast point? Interesting?

WTNT82 EGRR 051612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 39.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2023 0 13.4N 39.1W 1011 24
0000UTC 06.09.2023 12 13.8N 42.0W 1009 25
1200UTC 06.09.2023 24 14.2N 44.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 07.09.2023 36 15.3N 46.7W 1007 34
1200UTC 07.09.2023 48 16.4N 49.0W 1006 35
0000UTC 08.09.2023 60 17.5N 52.0W 1006 31
1200UTC 08.09.2023 72 18.5N 55.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 09.09.2023 84 19.4N 58.4W 1006 30
1200UTC 09.09.2023 96 19.9N 61.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 10.09.2023 108 20.6N 63.6W 1003 46
1200UTC 10.09.2023 120 21.4N 66.5W 1002 50
0000UTC 11.09.2023 132 21.9N 68.6W 998 52
1200UTC 11.09.2023 144 22.4N 70.2W 998 50
0000UTC 12.09.2023 156 23.9N 71.0W 996 60
1200UTC 12.09.2023 168 24.2N 72.0W 996 46

[AutoPenalti]

That feature hanging around in the SE for a while is key and has to be watched.

[LarryWx]

-12Z UKMET initialized this at 13.4N, 39.1W vs the Best Track's 12Z of 12.2N, 39.6W. So, the 12Z's initialization is 90 miles NNE of the actual position.

-12Z UKMET is stronger and is at hour 156 ~150 miles ENE of the 0Z's hour 168. At 168, the 12Z is N of the SE Bahamas moving WNW at only 5 mph vs the 0Z being in the SE Bahamas:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 39.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2023 0 13.4N 39.1W 1011 24
0000UTC 06.09.2023 12 13.8N 42.0W 1009 25
1200UTC 06.09.2023 24 14.2N 44.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 07.09.2023 36 15.3N 46.7W 1007 34
1200UTC 07.09.2023 48 16.4N 49.0W 1006 35
0000UTC 08.09.2023 60 17.5N 52.0W 1006 31
1200UTC 08.09.2023 72 18.5N 55.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 09.09.2023 84 19.4N 58.4W 1006 30
1200UTC 09.09.2023 96 19.9N 61.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 10.09.2023 108 20.6N 63.6W 1003 46
1200UTC 10.09.2023 120 21.4N 66.5W 1002 50
0000UTC 11.09.2023 132 21.9N 68.6W 998 52
1200UTC 11.09.2023 144 22.4N 70.2W 998 50
0000UTC 12.09.2023 156 23.9N 71.0W 996 60
1200UTC 12.09.2023 168 24.2N 72.0W 996 46

[Spacecoast]

That feature hanging around in the SE for a while is key and has to be watched.

Could you elaborate? What should we be looking for?

[cheezyWXguy]

Yikes, that west bend on the gfs

[AutoPenalti]

-12Z UKMET initialized this at 13.4N, 39.1W vs the Best Track's 12Z of 12.2N, 39.6W. So, the 12Z's initialization is 90 miles NNE of the actual position.

-

12Z UKMET is stronger and is at hour 156 ~150 miles ENE of the 0Z's hour 168. At 168, the 12Z is N of the SE Bahamas moving WNW at only 5 mph vs the 0Z being in the SE Bahamas:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 39.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2023 0 13.4N 39.1W 1011 24
0000UTC 06.09.2023 12 13.8N 42.0W 1009 25
1200UTC 06.09.2023 24 14.2N 44.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 07.09.2023 36 15.3N 46.7W 1007 34
1200UTC 07.09.2023 48 16.4N 49.0W 1006 35
0000UTC 08.09.2023 60 17.5N 52.0W 1006 31
1200UTC 08.09.2023 72 18.5N 55.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 09.09.2023 84 19.4N 58.4W 1006 30
1200UTC 09.09.2023 96 19.9N 61.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 10.09.2023 108 20.6N 63.6W 1003 46
1200UTC 10.09.2023 120 21.4N 66.5W 1002 50
0000UTC 11.09.2023 132 21.9N 68.6W 998 52
1200UTC 11.09.2023 144 22.4N 70.2W 998 50
0000UTC 12.09.2023 156 23.9N 71.0W 996 60
1200UTC 12.09.2023 168 24.2N 72.0W 996 46

Overall this jumped north because of intensity.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yikes, that west bend on the gfs

The pattern shown at day 10 on the 12z gfs would be bad. The northern and southern lobe of the east coast trough separate, allowing the northern lobe to exit and leaving the southern lobe behind to turn negatively tilted. With the ridge building to its east, this would push the storm into the mid Atlantic coast. Hope this is a one-off but I’m not sold

[mantis83]

gfs threads the needle between bermuda and the east coast, moving north ...could hit maine this run

[SouthFLTropics]

Some big differences in the long range between 06z and 12z GFS...

[cheezyWXguy]

gfs threads the needle between bermuda and the east coast, moving north before beginning to recurve away

Watch the pattern, not the storm track, this far out. Whether this run ultimately landfalls or not is irrelevant. Not the kind of pattern you want to see in future runs for safe recurve.

[SouthFLTropics]

Close call for Cape Cod on the 12z GFS... scrapes by as it heads off to the NNE.

[b0tzy29]

Yikes, that west bend on the gfs

South Shore Long Island Guy here! That is giving my Sandy vibes and i don't much like it!!