2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/JUVy92k.png
Watch as X becomes the 10th named storm and then another system forms in the deep tropics early next month.
Yeah, “wave breaking” can only do so much to hamper a La Nina year. Neutral or El Niño, maybe a different story.
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/JUVy92k.png
Congrats for snapping the screenshot just before they updated Fiona to post-tropical
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
weeniepatrol wrote:869MB wrote:
As illustrated above, in mid-July, the CFS had one system affecting the Canadian Maritimes followed by another system heading towards Florida from the southeast during this general time period in late September. Not bad…not bad at all.
Yeah, I know s2k user Hammy has mentioned that it generally depicted a sharply backloaded with an onset delayed by a couple weeks relative to the climatological peak... very interesting indeed
For some reason I left this thread open in another browser since July with SFLcane’s post being the last one, so I decided to analyze that CFS run again, discovering the depiction it forecasted during this time was fairly accurate.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1573508908567535617
What's the interesting part for me is half of the 8 has been the last 4 years.
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
I'll never understand the seasonal bustcasting.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
And storm bustcasting.
First Ian was supposed to be an Issac/Erika repeat and not even become a hurricane, at least until after Cuba. Then when it actually became one, it was thought to never reach Cat 2.
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
don't really know what to say
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
If I ever see another premature season cancel post ever, I'll just post that image in response without any words or context.
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Category5Kaiju wrote:
If I ever see another premature season cancel post ever, I'll just post that image in response without any words or context.
I'm sure they'll come as soon as July '23
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
I think we’ve all learned our lesson to not call any cool ENSO season a bust, even if it goes 60 days and all of August without a single named storm. This year was just abnormally delayed. Looks like 2022 will finish off in between the other 0/0/0 August seasons; it won’t get to the hyperactive levels of 1961, but it’s already far ahead of 1997.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- AnnularCane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
aspen wrote:I think we’ve all learned our lesson to not call any cool ENSO season a bust, even if it goes 60 days and all of August without a single named storm. This year was just abnormally delayed. Looks like 2022 will finish off in between the other 0/0/0 August seasons; it won’t get to the hyperactive levels of 1961, but it’s already far ahead of 1997.
Barring Short Memory Syndrome.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
aspen wrote:I think we’ve all learned our lesson to not call any cool ENSO season a bust, even if it goes 60 days and all of August without a single named storm. This year was just abnormally delayed. Looks like 2022 will finish off in between the other 0/0/0 August seasons; it won’t get to the hyperactive levels of 1961, but it’s already far ahead of 1997.
Ya, the couple of posts on Ian’s slow development you made in that thread as if it was part of some weird 2022 stuff going on is the easy thing to do when the developments aren’t what one would expect. That’s human nature. So is jumping the gun on thinking this season might be one of the slowest on records in a few posts back in late August and September. The volcano stuff was flying around along with wave breaking and other things.
I probably would have been right with you back a couple decades as a younger dude. Gotta let tropical seasons the time to make that call!
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
How much do we want to bet that 2023 will feature yet another Cat 4 CONUS landfall? Especially in the GoM?
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Category5Kaiju wrote:How much do we want to bet that 2023 will feature yet another Cat 4 CONUS landfall? Especially in the GoM?
Hoping for this extended La Nina to finally transition into some sort of warm-flavoured ENSO by then.
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
speaks for itself
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
I know it’s a bit soon and Ian is far from done with the US, but I don’t think we are gonna see much of a break here if the GEFS and EPS have anything to say about the matter Fortunately the wave coming off Africa both models really like recurves and is just an ACE producer but there are rumbles for something in the Caribbean down the line. I’m never gonna season cancel AGAIN. Never. This year had taught me A LOT. And I don’t think it’s anywhere near over yet tbh.
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Not to forget this uses 1991-2020 climo with an inflated number of active years. If 1951-2020 (like NOAA) or 1981-2010 (like previously) were used, which were both balanced between the +AMO and -AMO eras, we're probably near average in ACE now.
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