#3811 Postby chrisjslucia » Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:12 pm
So the death toll for Sandy is now over 100 - 65 in the Caribbean and 48 in the USA & Canada.
It will be interesting to see the stats on those tragic fatalities. For the Caribbean many will have been caused by water, surges, flooding. For the USA many of the reports on fatalities I have read refer to cause of death as falling trees, power lines etc - I assume many of those caused by winds rather than water. Water has caused huge infrastructure damage though for the USA. In the traditional hurricane states within the USA building codes are now highly developed and strictly enforced, reducing wind related injuries and deaths. It is clear that these codes do not apply in the North East as the threat is not viewed as a reoccurring, every season problem. Same logic as why my roof is not designed to take a load of snow. But will two storms in these areas, in a short space of time, become a trend or remain a rare event? Difficult planning and investment decisions for sure.
I strongly believe for my area rain is more of a killer than wind in most instances but having said that the Eastern Caribbean is generally facing hurricanes and tropical storms in the earlier part of their lives. Still, I think the issue of how storms are defined and described in regards to providing alerts, warnings and advice is something that after Sandy and as the season comes (hopefully) to an end that Storm 2K and others can continue to look at.
People have said in earlier posts they would rather face a small Cat 5 than a large Cat 1. But the issue is far too complex for that kind of choice. Speed of movement meant Tomas, which was large enough, moved slowly over St Lucia and dumped 20 inches of rain in 22 hours. Had Sandy moved at a similar pace on landfall it is likely flooding would have been even worse. 100 mph winds frighten me, I can't envisage being hit directly by a Cat 5. but whatever was heading my way, it would certainly be easier to cope with and plan for if we were able to convert data into risk scores, which this time seemed to be widely used. Scores I saw emphasised water was more of a danger -particularly the surge - than winds (that is don't assume a Cat 1 isn't a killer).
BUT was the wind threat understated for the terrain, natural environment and infrastructure to be found in New Jersey, New York etc? Maybe for Miami the risk would have been low. For the actual areas hit by Sandy, the factors in scoring the risk would need to take local conditions into account. Which gets me back to the fatalities and what was the main cause.
Whatever it was, wherever they happened my thoughts and condolences go out to their friends, families and communities.
Finally, hats off to the people of the USA for their resilience in facing Sandy and good luck to all of the countries hit by Sandy in dealing with the aftermath. Apologies for being so long winded...(Risk factor 5!!)
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