WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALAS)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM
NORTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION. AS THE SYSTEM SKIRTED THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAINAN ISLAND, CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION REMAINED WEAK OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS INDICATED IN THE
16/0225Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SANYA
(59948) INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 28 KNOTS WITH
MINIMUM SLP OF 995.6MB, AND ZJSY REPORTED 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS WITH MINIMUM SLP NEAR 992MB. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAND
INTERACTION, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SST. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS). TS 06W IS
ACCELERATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TS 06W WILL PEAK NEAR 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PEAK INTENSITY, WHICH COULD BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. JUST AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF VIETNAM THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS VIETNAM'S RUGGED TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
Seems to be aiming for Vinh (490,000), the largest city in Nghệ An province (+3 million)
![Image](http://i.imgur.com/PtZ41mW.jpg)