2019 EPAC season
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
GFS keeps the trolling.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
This makes more sense in timing than the GFS ghost it has been showing.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1116306154848755712
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1116306154848755712
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
2019 EPAC Season Episode I: The Phantom Storms
Would be cool to see something form in April as long as it stayed away from land and didn't hug the Mexican coast causing problems. May 14th-20th does make much more sense though and seems like a decent possibility. Just a little over a month until the official start!
Would be cool to see something form in April as long as it stayed away from land and didn't hug the Mexican coast causing problems. May 14th-20th does make much more sense though and seems like a decent possibility. Just a little over a month until the official start!
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
SST configuration and Euro season MSLP configuration for Hawaii looks pretty bad so far.
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- Kazmit
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
Hawaii just barely dodged multiple bullets last year. Hopefully their luck continues this season.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
SST's south of Hawaii are already at 26C, while waters north and north east of the islands are now at 25C. It's not even hurricane season yet, much less ASO, and these SST's can already support hurricane strength easily .
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
I hope not, but I"m thinking this El Nino year could present Hawaii with another Iniki type risk. Probably not quite as strong and perhaps a greater threat to the Big Island rather then Kauai What were the SST's around the Islands when Iniki struck? I've gotta assume the early season temp anomalies were fairly high though.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
Alvin soon it looks like.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1126603946196234241
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1126604315869753345
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1126603946196234241
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1126604315869753345
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
For the first time ECMWF has a storm south of CentralAmerica coinciding with GFS. Kingarabian what is your take on this? Alvin forms or not yet?
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- StruThiO
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
I am no expert, but considering the MJO forecast to propagate through phases 8/1, I'd say Alvin is more likely than not
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
cycloneye wrote:For the first time ECMWF has a storm south of CentralAmerica coinciding with GFS. Kingarabian what is your take on this? Alvin forms or not yet?
https://i.imgur.com/6p5mFKO.png
It would make sense for some sort of TC to spin up as the MJO will be in town, but local conditions over the EPAC may not yet be favorable. Past couple of seasons we've seen systems in May and June struggle with either mid level shear or dry air. Probably why the models have been off and on so far.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1128082526767964161
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1128083003496779777
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1128083003496779777
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
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- Nancy Smar
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
While the Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone season begins
tomorrow, no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next
several days in the High Seas area.
tomorrow, no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next
several days in the High Seas area.
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- Kingarabian
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
Between May 22-28.
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- Nancy Smar
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Re: 2019 EPAC season
Today is the first day of the Eastern North Pacific Hurricane
Season. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next
several days in the Mexican Offshore Waters.
Season. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next
several days in the Mexican Offshore Waters.
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