#44 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:58 pm
northjaxpro wrote:12Z GFS run shows future Nestor's COC making landfall at Apalachicola on 12Z Saturday morning at 998 mb, a bit of a shift east from the 06Z run.
![Thinking :think:](./images/smilies/i.gif)
I get the sense that N. Gulf Low might impact the storm to slide just a tad further east as it rotates under and around the broader 500 mb circulation. This is assuming that the storm (Nestor?) itself has not already fully phased in with and lost identity with the broader mid level system already. If remaining a separate identity longer, then I'd imagine we could see a bit further east motion followed by a fairly sharp North turn just prior to landfall a bit east of Apalachicola and closer to the Alligator Point/St. Marks area, but that's only if this were to remain a largely tropical entity. The biggest question to me is how long will this tropical system be able to remain independent and separate prior to it's being absorbed? If nothing else, this certainly seems like it'll wind up growing into one large weather system. Phasing in with the evolving N. Gulf low suggests a stronger event for the N. Gulf Coast. Remaining separate and not fully phasing in right up until landfall would suggest to me a more sheared and shallow tropical system but with conditions spreading further east.
3 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.