Chacor is correct, see
http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/swi/index.html and
http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/au/.
WTIO30 FMEE 171235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL)
2.A POSITION 2007/11/17 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 87.0E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 200 NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/18 00 UTC: 12.0S/85.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/11/18 12 UTC: 12.1S/84.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
36H: 2007/11/19 00 UTC: 11.5S/82.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2007/11/19 12 UTC: 11.0S/80.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2007/11/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/79.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2007/11/20 12 UTC: DISSIPATED.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5-
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOW THAT"EX ARIEL" HAS BEGUN A
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK. CENTER REMAINS ILL-DEFINED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE.INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 30 KT BUT FOR SURE IT IS ON A WEAKENING TREND ...
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE CHAGOS SEEMS TO INHIBIT
RE-DEVELOPMENT
OF "EX ARIEL". AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED, IT WILL BE
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN
THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE CHAGOS. ACCORDINGLY PRESENT
GUIDANCE IS FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.=