#418 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 13, 2009 4:26 pm
JTWC increases intensity to 55kts.
WTPN33 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 065
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.6N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.8N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.9N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 107.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PARMA HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF PARMA. ALTHOUGH
SOME CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, CONVECTION REMAINS DEEPEST IN A
SINGLE BAND, WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131153Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE STRONGLY
SUGGESTS AN EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALMOST SURROUNDING THE
LLCC. THE CENTER HAS REMAINED FREE OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. AFTER THE SYSTEM EMERGED FROM HAINAN ISLAND IT REDEVELOPED
VERY QUICKLY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND MODEL GUIDANCE
WERE SLOW TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
REFLECT THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE INCREASE DOES NOT
REFLECT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT A
CORRECTION TO AN INCREASE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 19W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR, UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL IN VIETNAM. AS TS 19W TRACKS
INLAND, THE TRACK WILL FLATTEN IN A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION, AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER VIETNAM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
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