EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- skyline385
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ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
This plot from Alex really highlights how far south and atypical Bonnie’s track was
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
skyline385 wrote:This plot from Alex really highlights how far south and atypical Bonnie’s track was
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220701/922d7f9908d0f3ac185a47b67d392842.jpg
You know, I gotta say, yes it took forever and all the stronger, northern solutions to its track busted, but I have to give credit to Bonnie for trying to form while taking an unprecedented, unusually southern track. That track alone is very hostile for development given the time of year and SA land hurdles.
I can totally see this storm being referenced to in a future hurricane season by Andy Hazelton, Danny Morris, and those folks on Twitter haha. It definitely is not the most normal June/July system, especially given how far south it is and its track record of keeping us all irritated for taking so long to form lol
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Also a strong outflow from the upper anti cyclone.
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Still offshore, inner core showing up clearly
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ironically, Bonnie joins the list of "if only it had 24 more hours over water" storms after literally having an entire week.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Just in time before landfall for plane to reach shortly and see what we have.
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Maybe recon will find a hurricane, or something close to it. The plane is on the outskirts of Bonnie and should have a center pass in the next half hour or so.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:
Maybe recon will find a hurricane, or something close to it. The plane is on the outskirts of Bonnie and should have a center pass in the next half hour or so.
Looks like little to no strengthening has occurred, plane is only finding 45kt flight winds and 30kt at surface.
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hammy wrote:aspen wrote:
Maybe recon will find a hurricane, or something close to it. The plane is on the outskirts of Bonnie and should have a center pass in the next half hour or so.
Looks like little to no strengthening has occurred, plane is only finding 45kt flight winds and 30kt at surface.
This doesn’t make much sense. Microwave shows a large eyewall forming, yet instead there’s a tiny core with only a minimal pressure drop.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Hammy wrote:aspen wrote:Maybe recon will find a hurricane, or something close to it. The plane is on the outskirts of Bonnie and should have a center pass in the next half hour or so.
Looks like little to no strengthening has occurred, plane is only finding 45kt flight winds and 30kt at surface.
This doesn’t make much sense. Microwave shows a large eyewall forming, yet instead there’s a tiny core with only a minimal pressure drop.
Appears to be a dry slot rather than a formative eye. The center is embedded in a curved band.
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Center dropsonde supports 999-1000mb
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Winds didn't catch up yet. Let's see how it does in the EPAC. Will at one point cross an area off of Mexico that's had a bunch of easterly shear the past 3 years.
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- skyline385
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- galaxy401
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Early guess from the intensity seems to be at 45 kts.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
There’s a large expanding hot tower of <-80C convection over Bonnie’s tiny core. The next pass might be a few mbar lower.
This structure would’ve been ripe for RI into a major (or close to one) if Bonnie had formed a day or two ago. CA dodged a potentially large bullet this time.
This structure would’ve been ripe for RI into a major (or close to one) if Bonnie had formed a day or two ago. CA dodged a potentially large bullet this time.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- skyline385
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:There’s a large expanding hot tower of <-80C convection over Bonnie’s tiny core. The next pass might be a few mbar lower.
This structure would’ve been ripe for RI into a major (or close to one) if Bonnie had formed a day or two ago. CA dodged a potentially large bullet this time.
You were right, almost 2.5mb drop in 50 mins
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