Yellow Evan wrote:I will say, in this case, that the trades relaxing in the central Atlantic, would further hint to a 2017 pattern in both basins.
While the EPAC now has that filament of cooler SSTs like last spring, I have a feeling the EPAC still manages an above average season.
And while trades should relax, SSTAs in the ATL MDR shouldn't come close to 2017's -- there's still a decent -AMM and it'll take a lot of work to even get to a marginal +AMM, let alone 2017 levels.
Also, unlike 2017, it looks like ENSO will move into El Niño this yr rather than going back to La Niña, especially since its base state has been erased.
Just saying my $0.02, I could be wrong.
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and
in no way is official. Please refer to
http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon:
http://cyclonicwx.com