ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
NCDC PDO index warmed up to -0.21 For September. So it looks like the positive run will continue on JISAO.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Another round of trades en route:
Though they continue to be west of the dateline.
Though they continue to be west of the dateline.
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Re: ENSO Updates
0.0C this week. With the discussion of El Nino then La Nina, neither may hold enough and in the end just be neutral afterall in the Ocean. The cold anomalies are tilted very far east off South America.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
It's quite interesting that all of a sudden it's so hard to get a conventional La Nina event. The atmosphere has been in a La Nina state since the beginning of the year (although this is debatable), yet there's nothing to show for it -- as we should be on our way to a 2nd La Nina event historically speaking. The strong 2014-2015 El Nino seems to have changed/tilted something.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:It's quite interesting that all of a sudden it's so hard to get a conventional La Nina event. The atmosphere has been in a La Nina state since the beginning of the year (although this is debatable), yet there's nothing to show for it -- as we should be on our way to a 2nd La Nina event historically speaking. The strong 2014-2015 El Nino seems to have changed/tilted something.
Perhaps the positive PDO has more to do with this than we thought??
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Re: ENSO Updates
CPC predicts for the Nino 3.4 temperatures to start dropping again according to the October update. La Niña Watch remains in effect with a 55% to 65% chance of La Niña during the NHEM 2017-2018 winter. This temperature rise in 3.4 may just be a blip or temporary rise. It is predicted to fall again.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates
Jisao PDO index for Sept rose to +0.32. Streak is now 45 consecutive months.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Tornado_1257 wrote:CPC predicts for the Nino 3.4 temperatures to start dropping again according to the October update. La Niña Watch remains in effect with a 55% to 65% chance of La Niña during the NHEM 2017-2018 winter. This temperature rise in 3.4 may just be a blip or temporary rise. It is predicted to fall again.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
1984-1985 is the only other Nina that started so late SON. This SON likely won't make the trimonthly requirement because of the warming in September and early Oct. Only a little over 2 months left in the year and 3 months is needed for a trimonthly with 5 consecutive unbroken trimonthlies to make an ENSO event. The math is an uphill battle unless the weeklies start reading -1C+ the whole way
But thats the official way it is declared via Ocean. Atmospherically Nina forcing has been more often than not this year.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:Jisao PDO index for Sept rose to +0.32. Streak is now 45 consecutive months.
JMA is at 44 months un-broken as well.
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Re: ENSO Updates
GFS continues to show a massive trade burst in all Nino regions:
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:Tornado_1257 wrote:CPC predicts for the Nino 3.4 temperatures to start dropping again according to the October update. La Niña Watch remains in effect with a 55% to 65% chance of La Niña during the NHEM 2017-2018 winter. This temperature rise in 3.4 may just be a blip or temporary rise. It is predicted to fall again.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
1984-1985 is the only other Nina that started so late SON. This SON likely won't make the trimonthly requirement because of the warming in September and early Oct. Only a little over 2 months left in the year and 3 months is needed for a trimonthly with 5 consecutive unbroken trimonthlies to make an ENSO event. The math is an uphill battle unless the weeklies start reading -1C+ the whole way
But thats the official way it is declared via Ocean. Atmospherically Nina forcing has been more often than not this year.
It looks like cooling in 3.4 has resumed in a big way per TAO & this is being supported by a solid +SOI & cool subsfc. So, La Niña could very well be on our doorstep. I can't even yet eliminate the chance for moderate Niña though I favor weak as of now.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
Significant drop this week back to -0.5C
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:Significant drop this week back to -0.5C
A one week cooling of 0.5 in Nino 3.4 is a big deal as there have been only two faster coolings in one week there since at least 1990, -0.6 last year in June and -0.7 in June of 1998. There was a 0.5 cooling in Oct of 2007.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
LarryWx wrote:Ntxw wrote:Tornado_1257 wrote:CPC predicts for the Nino 3.4 temperatures to start dropping again according to the October update. La Niña Watch remains in effect with a 55% to 65% chance of La Niña during the NHEM 2017-2018 winter. This temperature rise in 3.4 may just be a blip or temporary rise. It is predicted to fall again.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
1984-1985 is the only other Nina that started so late SON. This SON likely won't make the trimonthly requirement because of the warming in September and early Oct. Only a little over 2 months left in the year and 3 months is needed for a trimonthly with 5 consecutive unbroken trimonthlies to make an ENSO event. The math is an uphill battle unless the weeklies start reading -1C+ the whole way
But thats the official way it is declared via Ocean. Atmospherically Nina forcing has been more often than not this year.
It looks like cooling in 3.4 has resumed in a big way per TAO & this is being supported by a solid +SOI & cool subsfc. So, La Niña could very well be on our doorstep. I can't even yet eliminate the chance for moderate Niña though I favor weak as of now.
Had we stayed in ERSSTv4 I would be assured the Nina would fit the requirement as JAS on it was -0.5C. On the new official ERSSTv5 it is only -0.1C
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Re: ENSO Updates
Even colder this week so perhaps Monday's update will yield ~ -0.7C
The next couple of weeks into early Nov is likely the peak of this event right now. Most guidance agree on November is the bottoming out of -SSTA
I am still hoping (Luis) cycloneye will return soon with the weekly ENSO updates but he has not been around since Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico.
The next couple of weeks into early Nov is likely the peak of this event right now. Most guidance agree on November is the bottoming out of -SSTA
I am still hoping (Luis) cycloneye will return soon with the weekly ENSO updates but he has not been around since Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Will be -0.8C this week at the update
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:Even colder this week so perhaps Monday's update will yield ~ -0.7C
[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/11scfax.png[img]
The next couple of weeks into early Nov is likely the peak of this event right now. Most guidance agree on November is the bottoming out of -SSTA
I am still hoping (Luis) cycloneye will return soon with the weekly ENSO updates but he has not been around since Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico.
You think the CPC will declare a La Nina regardless of the tri-monthlies?
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw wrote:Even colder this week so perhaps Monday's update will yield ~ -0.7C
[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/11scfax.png[img]
The next couple of weeks into early Nov is likely the peak of this event right now. Most guidance agree on November is the bottoming out of -SSTA
I am still hoping (Luis) cycloneye will return soon with the weekly ENSO updates but he has not been around since Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico.
You think the CPC will declare a La Nina regardless of the tri-monthlies?
They will only declare if the trimonthlies qualify. 2014 is a prime example of so close (at the time)
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Re: ENSO Updates
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3 -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.4ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
All regions cooled.
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3 -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.4ºC
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
All regions cooled.
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- GeneratorPower
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Re: ENSO Updates
I really enjoy the ENSO forecast attempts and discussion of the science. But I think the scientific community needs to admit they cannot forecast ENSO. Not necessarily on this board, but on other big boards there was nothing but El Niño wishcasting through about March 2017. Even by June we had big names holding on to their Nino predictions. I suppose El Niño brings bigger snow totals for the cold weather climate folks.
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